[SMM analysis] the operating rate of commercial anode market increased slightly in May compared with the previous month. What was the trend in June?

SMM recently completed the investigation on the start-up rate of commercial prebaked anodes in May. The start-up rate of commercial prebaked anodes in May was 64.33%, which was 3.18% higher than that of the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the operating rate of large enterprises (annual capacity > 250000 tons) increased by 5.06% compared with the previous month, while that of medium-sized enterprises (10 ≤ annual capacity < 250000 tons) was basically the same, with a slight increase of 0.29%. The operating rate of small enterprises (with an annual capacity of less than 100000 tons) increased slightly by 2.70 per cent compared with the previous month.

What will be the trend of the market in June?

On the supply side, in terms of commercial anode, the opening rate in May was slightly higher than that in April, and the anode output in Shandong continued to increase compared with the previous month, mainly due to the contribution of large carbon enterprises with an annual capacity of more than 250000 tons. The production situation of medium-sized carbon enterprises in Henan is different. The anode output of several carbon plants that resumed production at the end of March is gradually stable, and the output is increasing month by month, but the carbon enterprises that continue to stop production in the heating season still have no plans to return to production. Multi-transformation production of graphite electrodes, raw blocks, etc.; The output of supporting anode also increased slightly. There is no obvious rising trend on the demand side, and the new and resumed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is still being slowly released in the second quarter.

 
价格方面，6月份魏桥预焙阳极价格终于止跌，相较上月上涨100元/吨，硫含量3%以下的预焙阳极普块现汇价格3095元/吨，承兑价格3130元/吨。虽然价格止跌返升，但资金面目前仍是挤压商用阳极市场利润的一大因素，上游石油焦、煤沥青价格逐渐抬升致使阳极成本增加，下游部分电解铝企回款慢仍使碳素企业承压，因此SMM认为价格需持续上升才可使部分阳极生产企业摆脱亏损甚至微利状态。预计6月商用阳极主流成交价格将走上行通道，阳极开工率或将持续温和上涨。