Weekly Review of imported Manganese Mine (6.3-6.6): profit is difficult to be optimistic in recent days because it is difficult to change the price between supply and demand

This week imported manganese ore market as a whole low consolidation, some minerals quoted high and low price separation, manganese ore traders on the future mentality has also appeared differences, overseas mine quotation negotiations are difficult.

On the demand side, due to the influence of the increase in steel recruitment scalars in the downstream alloy market, the operating rate of the major manufacturers is expected to improve compared with May, and the inquiry atmosphere for port manganese mines is better, but because many alloy factories hoard more manganese ore stocks in ports, Short-term spot demand is general; At the same time, the quotations from overseas mines to China began one after another in July, and the downward trend of the quotations is inevitable. The alloy factories are more positive that the prices of manganese ores will continue to fall in the future, and at the same time, they will also try to depress the prices at the same time, so the port inquiry atmosphere is better at the same time. The wait-and-see mentality is also very strong.

On the supply side, the inventory situation of the mainstream ports in the north and south is not optimistic. As of this week, the manganese mine inventory in Tianjin Port is about 3 million tons and that in Qinzhou Port is about 1.11 million tons, which is smaller than that of last month, but the overall stock is still at a high level. Among them, some of them were put into storage in early June, with the addition of about 10000 tons of bulk, 116000 tons of semi-carbonic acid in South Africa and 41640 tons in Australia, with supply still exceeding demand. This week, the three mainstream Canon imported manganese oxide ores were quoted at a low price, with a reduction of 0.5 yuan per tonnage. The main purpose is to clear the backlog of stocks as soon as possible and at the same time facilitate futures price negotiations with overseas mines. It is also to increase the bargaining power of manganese ore prices in the future.

In terms of trade mentality, manganese miners are clearly divided in their quotations this week. According to incomplete statistics from SMM, about 35 per cent of traders have high prices this week, mainly because they believe that upstream alloy prices and manufacturers' profits are improving. An appropriate price may be acceptable to the market; 45% of the mine price range has not been adjusted, bearish on a new round of quotations for overseas mines, while stabilizing the offer at this time is conducive to the adjustment of future profits; about 20% of traders fell slightly this week, as mentioned above.

This week, UMK and Tshipi, the two major semi-carbonic acid mines in South Africa, offered US $5.78 / tonnage and US $5.50 / tonnage respectively in July, down US $0.002 / tonnage and US $0.40 / tonnage, respectively. Tshipi quotations are not satisfactory. Some traders have completed the contract, but UMK quotations are difficult to accept in the domestic market. Recently, there have been rumors that some traders have signed US $5.30 / tonnage orders, and there are also rumors that US $5.0US / tonnage has been signed. However, according to textual research, they are all implemented. South African mines also said that due to the end of the general election in South Africa, the situation is stable and suspicious, more commitments are difficult to implement, coupled with more trade uncertainties, the process of futures price negotiations is slow.

At present, the heavy losses of domestic manganese ore traders have lasted for nearly a month, and when the losses are serious, they are about 3 yuan per ton, and the high inventory is still the main reason for dragging down the domestic mining prices. In addition to the pressure of cash flow, the bargaining power of the miners has been repeatedly compressed. Stocks are not falling, mining prices are difficult to recover significantly in the short term. According to SMM, due to the decline in shipments of Brazilian and Australian blocks in late April and early May, inventories are likely to show a phased decline in inventories in June, but the decline is very limited, so losses in some mines may improve.