SMM net news: spot aspect, LME zinc spot rises water 134 US dollars / ton, the previous trading day rises water 144 US dollars / ton. According to SMM, Shanghai 0 # zinc mainstream transaction 20880 to 20710 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary June discount 20 yuan / ton-flat water; Smelter more normal shipment, downstream every rise and wait and see, coupled with yesterday has been low replenishment warehouse, the actual consumption to participate in weakening the transaction of traders.
In terms of inventories, LME zinc stocks increased by 200 tons to 99800 tons on 5 June. According to my non-ferrous metal, the stock of zinc ingots in China on June 3 was 145200 tons, 700 tons less than that of last week. Galvanized stocks are 990500 tons, down 5500 tons from last week.
Viewpoint: the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, market liquidity expectations are enhanced, and short-term interest rates are near-month zinc prices. At present, due to the further intensification of contradictions in the near and far months, the structure of back in domestic zinc market is deepened. Zinc fundamentals are still on the short side, zinc supply-side increment gradually cashed in, the lower reaches of June gradually into the off-season, zinc ingot storage speed is gradually slowing down, so the rhythm is recommended to roll short. In the middle line, the supply of zinc mine TC high shock, mine supply loose expectations have been gradually verified, zinc smelting profits remain high, so when market factors such as environmental protection, plant relocation and other problems are solved, it is expected that the high profit model is difficult to maintain. It is difficult to keep low for a long time when the refinery starts, the increase of zinc ore supply will be gradually transmitted to the ingot end, and the metal end supply increment will also rise. At that time, the import window opening is expected to remain, the zinc ingot supply will increase, and the subsequent risk of pressing the warehouse is expected to gradually reduce. On the whole, there is still downward room for zinc in Shanghai in the medium term.
Strategy: one-sided: cautious bearish, short position holding, rhythm recommended to roll short. Arbitrage: wait and see.
Risk point: macro risk.
Spot, LME aluminum spot discount 25.25 US dollars / ton, the previous trading day discount 23.25 US dollars / ton. According to SMM, Shanghai transaction price between 14100 and 14120 yuan / ton, 10 to 20 yuan / ton of rising water in that month. Downstream on-demand procurement today, the enthusiasm for receiving goods fell from yesterday.
On the inventory side, LME aluminium ingot stocks fell by 12600 tons to 1.1194 million tons on June 5. According to my nonferrous metal, domestic social stocks of aluminum ingots fell 36000 tons to 1.186 million tons on June 3 compared with Thursday.
Viewpoint: on the news side, Norwegian Hydro (Norsk Hydro) said on Wednesday that core profit fell 82% in the first quarter after a March cyber attack paralyzed IT and said uncertainty in the global market would affect its market. In May, the new production capacity was concentrated in Chinalco China Resources, Shaanxi Meixin, Yunal Haixin and Heqing Yixin, Guangxi Suyuan and other enterprises, while the compound production capacity was distributed in several enterprises of Shandong Weiqiao, Qinghai West Hydropower and Gansu Dongxing Aluminum Industry. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was put into production as scheduled, and the price of aluminum maintained a downward trend. However, the current aluminum spot is still maintaining a small increase in water, traders hoarding goods waiting to rise as a result of aluminum ingots to go to the warehouse speed is still fast, supply growth has not seen a substantial increase, so it is not recommended to chase short. The middle line sees that the domestic smelting supply capacity is gradually rising, the profit of electrolytic aluminum is repaired after the heating season, and the pressure released by supply is still relatively large in the second half of the year. Although the cost of electrolytic aluminum (such as alumina, anode carbon, etc.) has rebounded in the short term, However, the supply pressure on the cost side of the middle line is still large, so it is expected that the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production will be difficult to expand and the new production capacity will be released as scheduled, and the upward driving force of the aluminum market in the medium term is not large.
Strategy: unilateral: neutral, wait and see. Arbitrage: wait and see.
Risk point: macro risk.