[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190604: bearish gradually digested, Black stabilized and rebounded

In terms of volume and price, RB1910 rose 38 yuan / ton to close at 3745 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, while HC1910 closed up 32 yuan / ton to close at 3609 yuan / ton. I1909 closed up 11. 5 yuan per ton to 720.5 yuan per ton, while J1909 closed up 28. 5 yuan per ton to 2127 yuan per ton. In terms of position data, the number of RB1910 transactions increased by 22000 to 2.59 million, while that of I1909 decreased by 64200 to 1.52 million. In terms of capital flows, the net inflow of funds from RB1910 today was 144 million yuan. I1909 net outflow of funds was $225 million. Point of view: concussion upward. Today, RB1910 reached near the 60-day moving average to gain support, opening a wave of bottoming rebound. Last week's decline began when the firm announced that it would sharply increase transaction fees from May 30, 2019. at the same time, Vale said in its latest statement, The risk of dam break in the company's Gongo Soco mine dam is weak and the previous market expectations, double bearish, the early lead of iron ore head down. And another stronger variety coke also due to the large increase in the previous period, once rose the spot and appeared a pullback; the weakness of the two leading varieties led to the overall decline of the black system. Yesterday, rising global trade tensions once again brought market sentiment to a freezing point, but opportunities often come at a time of extreme pessimism. On the one hand, worried high supply in the blast furnace has reached a record high. There is little chance of further deterioration, and we note that the production of threads and hot rolls has declined last week; On the other hand, weak demand and macro bearish have also been cashed in the disk, the current price level valuation has been more reasonable, with a higher margin of safety, the logic of the market may once again change to the basis of repair and cost support. Iron ore also showed signs of stopping the decline today, from the domestic port stocks fell again, and steel mills started to maintain a high point of view, ore fundamentals have not worsened, in the short-term burst of sentiment after the steady recovery is a high probability event. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3650, 3850); I1909 contract range (680780), mainly on the low side. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.