[SMM analysis] Lithium carbonate trading enthusiasm cooling price teetering

SMM6 4-month news: into June, lithium carbonate price trend is the focus of concern in the industry. In order to give the analysis and forecast of the price trend of lithium carbonate in the near future, we have carried out market research and output statistics.

According to market research, a large battery-grade lithium carbonate manufacturer in an industry said that orders in June did fall from May, and prices were slightly lower than in early May. And the transaction price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in small and medium-sized enterprises gradually began to go down-with 75000 yuan / ton as the transaction price, battery-grade lithium carbonate is gradually increasing.

Although the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate has not been affected for the time being, there is already a "trend of wind and rain"-according to one trader, the enthusiasm for purchasing industrial grade lithium carbonate in the lower reaches is showing signs of waning compared with April and May.

Combined with the market mentality, we can also explain one or two through the monthly statistics. According to statistics, China's lithium carbonate production in May was 13700 tons, up 18 per cent from the previous month. We forecast that China's lithium carbonate production in June would be 15700 tons, up 14 per cent from the previous month. Looking back at the lithium carbonate production in March and April, it was found that the lithium carbonate production remained stable at about 11000 tons, almost unchanged. Production of cathode materials, especially lithium manganate and lithium iron phosphate, has been rising for the past two months, up from 15% in April and 29% in march. Since May, the production of cathode materials has remained stable, which corresponds to the "weakening of purchasing enthusiasm" reflected by the market.

Overall, the national lithium carbonate production increased significantly in May, and the forecast increment in June continued. However, the output of downstream cathode materials, which is the main application field, remains stable. In response, we believe that the price of lithium carbonate will begin to fall in June. But given the current meagre profits of lithium salt producers and limited room for price declines, we expect lithium carbonate prices to fall from June to September.

SMM Cobalt Lithium Research team

Hu Yan 021 51666809

Hong Lu 021 51666814

Ning Ziwei 021 51666780

Qin Jingjing 021 51666828