SMM News: recently held the eighth meeting of the Central Comprehensive deepening Reform Commission, examined and adopted the "guidance on innovation and improvement of macro-control." The meeting pointed out that we should innovate and improve macro-control, speed up the establishment of a macro-control target system that meets the requirements of high-quality development and embody the new concept of development, and improve the coordination mechanism of financial, monetary, employment, industrial, regional and other economic policies. Keep the economy running within a reasonable range. Today, this newspaper on the relevant content interview experts to interpret, in order to entertain readers.
Experts expect GDP to grow 6.3 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier
The recent eighth meeting of the Central Commission for Comprehensive deepening Reform stressed the need to coordinate stable growth, promote reform, adjust structure, benefit the people's livelihood, prevent risks, and maintain stability, and give full play to the strategic guiding role of the national development plan. We will improve mechanisms for coordinating financial, monetary, employment, industrial and regional economic policies, and maintain economic operation within a reasonable range.
Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference held by the State New Office on May 15 that some economic indicators fluctuated between March and April, and the short-term fluctuations between the months have always been objective. Judging the economic situation depends not only on the fluctuations between the next two months, but more importantly, on the trend. Judging from the comprehensive changing trend of the overall indicators in April, the economic operation has continued to maintain an overall stable and steady development trend.
On May 30, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, told reporters that from the current leading indicators, the possibility of economic stall in the future is very small. First of all, since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of the money supply and the scale of social financing has stabilized and picked up, and the medium-and long-term loans of enterprises have also put an end to the sustained negative growth of the previous year, indicating that the transmission path from wide money to wide credit is gradually opening up. Demand for financing in the real economy is also picking up. Historical data show that monetary financing is usually about six to nine months ahead of economic growth.
Second, Wang Qing said that fiscal policy to reduce taxes and fees and infrastructure to make up for the shortcomings of the continuous efforts, late consumption and infrastructure investment there is room to speed up. With the gradual effect of individual tax reduction, the growth rate of residents' disposable income has increased since the beginning of this year, and the implementation of a new round of VAT tax reduction will also improve corporate profits, which will be good for boosting household consumption and corporate investment in the later period. At the same time, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure has accelerated significantly since the beginning of the year, with the issuance of local bonds pre-issued, while the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first four months is still significantly low, which indicates that there is much room for growth in infrastructure investment in the later period.
With regard to the forecast of GDP growth in the second quarter, Zhang Wei, chief macro analyst at the Kunlun Capital Management Center, said in an interview with reporters that under the conditions of building the bottom of the internal economy and the external environment, Ultra-loose money delivery in the first quarter has the feasibility of marginal tightening. As a result, there is a "slimming" forecast for the real economy in the second quarter, but there is no risk of stall, with GDP expected to grow 6.3 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier. At present, "ensuring quality" is more important than "quantity". The improvement of total factor productivity is not only the improvement of unit production efficiency, but also the effective combination of scientific and technological innovation and management innovation. The primary driving force of future economic growth is definitely not the second awakening of traditional backward production capacity, but the "scientific and technological hard power" represented by advanced manufacturing industry. At present, scientific and technological innovation has achieved remarkable results. Last year, investment in the advanced manufacturing industry accounted for more than 30 percent of the overall investment, and the policy layer continued to promote the digitization, networking, and intelligent upgrading of the manufacturing industry. In order to achieve the deep integration of advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry, financial institutions at all levels also spare no effort to support it.
For second-quarter GDP growth, Wang Qing said he expected to slow slightly to about 6.3 per cent. Investment growth will accelerate in the second quarter and will play a mainstay role in stabilizing growth. In terms of consumption, the effect of individual tax reduction is gradually emerging, and the increase in disposable income will boost household consumption to a certain extent. However, car sales have been weak since the second quarter, a drag on the total retail volume of consumer goods is a cause for concern.
Taking into account various factors, it is expected that the contribution rate of domestic consumption to economic growth will remain basically stable or slightly decline in the second quarter. On the whole, the external "headwind" increased in the second quarter, the effect of pre-counter-cyclical adjustment policy is showing, and the economic growth rate in the second quarter will remain in a stable range of 6.3%.