SMM News: foreign media said that at a time when trade disputes between the United States and China are heating up, some economists said that the US economy has shown signs of recession, and both Chinese and US economies will be damaged in the trade war, but China has ways to avoid further deterioration of the economy.
According to a report in the Japan Keizai Shimbun on May 27, Catherine Mann, who was in charge of economic analysis at the OECD and is now chief global economist at Citigroup in the United States, said in an exclusive interview with the newspaper. The ongoing trade war between the United States and China has made the outlook for the world economy uncertain.
Mr Mann said the US might want to achieve one of two goals, either to "divorce", that is, to reduce its dependence on China for trade and production, or to "deepen" China's purchase of more US products in order to reduce the deficit with China. Because its logic is not consistent, it is puzzling.
He said the world economy is expected to grow by about 3 per cent between 2019 and 2020, but if the trade war intensifies, the growth rate will fall to 2.7 per cent. The turmoil in the real economy and financial markets poses downward pressure.
He said that the increase in tariffs will have a negative impact on both China and the United States. The US economy is expected to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2019. If the trade war continues, the economic growth rate will fall to 2%, and if the problem is solved, the economic growth rate will increase to 3%. If the impact of the trade war spreads to private investment in 2020, the situation will worsen further. 70% of the furniture and 30% of the clothing consumed in the United States are imported from China.
He also said China could support private financing and support policies for the purchase of consumer durables and housing. China has ways to avoid further deterioration of its economy.
According to a report on the website of Newsweek on May 26, US Republican Senator Joni Ernst pointed out on the 26th that Trump called American farmers "patriots." This will not address the economic pain in the agricultural sector caused by the escalating trade war between the United States and China.
"Farmers are really in a difficult position right now," Ernst said. " "in Iowa, 1/5 of jobs are directly related to trade," she said. Most of these jobs involve the agricultural sector. Therefore, these are very tense times. "
Iowa farmer Larry Onler says his family could lose as much as $150000 as a result of Trump's trade war. When asked if he had ever voted for Trump, he quickly responded: "Yes!" But I'll never vote for him again! "