SMM News: the latest data released by Markett (IHS Markit), a well-known economic research company in the United States, showed that the PMI of manufacturing and service industries in the United States in May was much worse than expected. Of these, PMI in the US service sector fell to 50.9 per cent in May, well below market expectations of 53.5 per cent, the lowest level since February 2016. Us manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 per cent in May, the lowest level in September or 116 months of 2009. In addition, the index of new orders fell for the first time since August 2009.
As soon as the dismal news of PMI came out, US stocks immediately shook. The Daily Economic News reporter observed that the main US stock index opened higher and lower on Friday. For example, the S & P 500 closed 0.14% higher at 0.46% and 0.62% higher at 0.11%.
The sharply lower-than-expected PMI data significantly raised concerns about the outlook for the US economy. At one point, meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 2.229 per cent, its lowest level since December 2017. The upside-down of the long-short bond yield curve is becoming increasingly evident, suggesting an increased risk of recession in the US.
"if only US economic data are weak, investors will be worried, but coupled with trade tensions, investors need to be alert to a further slowdown in the next three to six months." Kathy Lien, executive director of foreign exchange strategy at BK Asset Management, said earlier.
The slowdown in the United States has long been led by manufacturing, but it is now spreading to the service sector.
"the performance of the services sector is a key measure of the health of domestic demand in the United States, so the spread of this economic slowdown poses a downward risk to the economic outlook." Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said: "increased concerns and uncertainty about trade tensions have further hit order growth and business confidence, with business activity slowing sharply in May. The growth rate of the new business index is the smallest since the financial crisis, and the situation is likely to be even worse in the future. "
The reporter learned that the job growth rate in the United States in May reached its lowest level in two years. According to a study by the Global Trade Partnership, a US business consultancy, a 25 per cent tariff is imposed on Chinese imports worth US $250 billion, as well as tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products. Will result in the loss of 934000 jobs a year in the United States.
"the deepening of the industry's woes in May means that manufacturing is likely to be a bigger drag on the US economy in the second quarter," Williamson said. "
Key developments in the US market this week:
Monday: the United States and Japan plan to hold a summit in Tokyo on the 27th and consider holding ministerial trade talks before that.
Wednesday: the Richmond Fed manufacturing index was released in May.
Friday: the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was released in May.