SMM5, April 24th, news:

This week, as a result of the further upgrading of Sino-US trade relations, the United States decided to impose sanctions on Huawei enterprises. The value of US dollar risk aversion appeared to be strong, standing above the 98 mark and rising to a high of 98.37 in nearly two years. Subsequently, the performance of US economic data was not as good as expected. The high level of the US dollar fell sharply below the 98 mark, non-ferrous metals fell generally, and SMMI.Cu fell 1.75%. Among them, copper, zinc and nickel fell the most, the trend of zinc fell to the US $2500 mark, the Shanghai zinc slid to the RMB 20, 000 mark, and the spot zinc continued to decline. SMMI.Zn fell 3.96% week, domestic and foreign markets even plus the spot market weakness, so that zinc prices led the market. Copper was subjected to full short selling pressure, Lun Copper fell below US $6000, Shanghai Copper lost 47000 yuan / ton, technically lost all EMA support, spot first raised and then suppressed, the monthly long weekend ended and the fear of decline in the market came to an end. As a result, spot water rose and fell back, with SMMI.Cu falling 1.86 per cent per week. Nickel futures showed a certain degree of resistance, but spot due to weak consumption in exchange for goods merchants eager, resulting in a 1.5 per cent weekly drop in SMMI.Ni. Shanghai tin fell by about 1,000 yuan a week, spot market suppliers eager to ship, but very few recipients, SMMI.Sn fell 1.03 per cent per week. After the Shanghai aluminum rush was close to 14300 yuan at the beginning of the week, due to the short atmosphere of the whole market, the bulls left the market to avoid danger, and the high level of Shanghai aluminum fell back, but the spot kept a small increase of 10 to 20 yuan per ton, and the market transaction activity was high. The continued sharp fall in inventories has also boosted confidence in spot, with aluminium still well resistant to falls and having its own short-term sustainable items, with SMMI.Al down just 0.77 per cent in the week. The only person out of the independent market in the week is lead. Shanghai lead holds 16000 yuan per ton. Short positions reduce positions and push up Shanghai lead by more than 1%. Spot is even more clenched on rising water, and regeneration is affected by environmental pressure. There is almost no price difference between the original lead and the original lead. It is also short-term support for lead prices, SMMI.Pb rose 0.62 per cent in the week. With the concentration of economic data next week, the US dollar has begun to show a trend of high decline, and may form a remedial market for non-ferrous metals that have broken down this week, but at the end of the month, financial pressure and risk aversion are still the main factors in the market. Be vigilant and pay attention to the short force of the futures market and the strength of the cash exchange of the holders in the spot market.

Copper: Lun Copper showed a broken decline this week, with 5 days of overcast during the week, and stopped falling at the end of the week. This week, the market as a whole was macroscopically oriented, and the hot spots of Sino-US trade frictions were magnified. A series of US crackdown measures against Chinese enterprises have led to a continued stalemate in Sino-US relations and promoted the upsurge of risk aversion in the market. On the other hand, the uncertainty of Brexit in Europe superimposed that the PMI of the German manufacturing industry has been lower than the line of prosperity and decline for several months in a row, and the overall performance of the European economy has been weak, resulting in a weak view of the euro in the market, which has also contributed to the strength of the US dollar. The dollar index rose rapidly to a two-year high of 98.373, with copper prices continuing the weak trend of the weekend, with bears taking full control of the market, from a high of $6079 per tonne at the beginning of the week without hesitation to drop below the $6000 / tonne mark to a weekend low of $5880 per tonne. Copper prices were able to catch their breath as US economic data weakened and the dollar fell to 98 on Friday, with bulls buying bargains and copper prices recovering slightly. Within the week, the decline of 1.21%, the center of gravity of the daily K line has completely dropped to the recent moving average, the weekly K line has also shown 6 negative, the KD index has maintained a decline, and the technical index has continued to be negative. This week, Lentong increased its position mainly by short positions, with its position increased by 6895 to 298000.

The overall center of gravity of Shanghai Copper this week also declined due to the negative macro sentiment in the market, but due to the slowdown in the pace of continuous devaluation of the offshore RMB, the Shanghai-London ratio continued to improve in the near future, and the Shanghai copper was more resistant to falls. At the beginning of the week, the center of gravity was still hovering at the 47000 yuan / ton mark, but soon due to continuing worries about Sino-US relations, short sellers swung into the market, and copper prices broke through the integer level, reaching a low level of 46530 yuan per ton. The overall center of gravity fell from the 5th and 10th EMA at the beginning of the week, and returned to the 47000 yuan / ton level by the end of Friday afternoon. The weekly MACD index, the green column, was elongated, and the KDJ index showed no sign of stopping the decline. This week, the overall trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index increased by 63000 hands to 1.433 million hands, and position volume increased by 44000 hands to 589000 hands, mainly by short positions.

This week, as the spot entered the monthly long order delivery cycle, the holders were willing to push forward at the beginning of the week. In addition, due to the continuous decline in the market price, which fell below 47000 yuan / ton at the weekend, the low price attracted positive transactions in the market, and the holders kept raising their quotations. From 10-90 yuan / ton to 100-160 yuan / ton within a week. In addition to long single trading, most of the market is still cautious, after the rise of high water, downstream buying interest has been suppressed, downstream fear of decline only to maintain rigid demand buying, trade trend also tends to be cautious. Until the end of the week, the delivery of long orders basically came to an end, which coincided with a rebound in the low level of the market, the market transaction performance was weaker, and the outflow of warehouse receipts led to sufficient supply. As a result, the market quotation was constantly suppressed and downgraded, and the cargoes actively shipped at high prices. The replacement intention is further enhanced, and the quotation is reduced to 40 yuan per ton of water and 70 yuan per ton of water. In the absence of long-term single support, the characteristics of oversupply return to the market, and the degree of trade activity decreases obviously.

Aluminum: Lun Aluminum is still mainly affected by macro news and fluctuations in the trend of the US Index. On Monday, the bulls took a risk aversion, reduced their positions by more than 6,000 hands, and closed a big negative line on the Japanese K line. From Tuesday to Thursday, the bulls were obviously hesitant, resulting in Lun Aluminum hovering below the US $1800 / ton position all the time. The macro situation took a slight turn for the better on Thursday, with bulls regaining confidence, falling $1765 a tonne and then rising to close at a long shadow line, which continued to try to recover on Friday. Aluminium fell $30.50 a tonne, or 1.67 per cent, to close at $1801 a tonne at 15:52 Beijing time. Trading volume decreased by 22801 hands to 50955 hands, and positions by 7951 hands to 682000 hands, mainly by long positions. Zhou K line temporarily closed a long shadow line Xiaoyin line, still hovering below the Bolin track, mainly long position reduction, the next week Lun aluminum will be 1775 to 1825 US dollars / ton shock, need to continue to pay attention to the Sino-US trade consultation process and the trend of the US index.

Shanghai aluminum ended seven consecutive gains this week, the whole week performance first suppression and then upward posture. From Monday to Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum stepped down, down nearly 200 yuan / ton. This week, Shanghai aluminum was more constrained by the macro surface than the fundamentals. The macro atmosphere warmed slightly on Thursday, and the Shanghai aluminum performance stopped falling and picked up. The Japanese K line tried to gradually return to the position of Brin on track. Zhou K line grew under the shadow line Xiaoyin line, weekly down 70 yuan / ton, down 0.49%, trading volume decreased by 11790 hands to 675000 hands, position volume decreased by 18564 hands to 239000 hands, mainly to long positions. Based on the background of the continuous and strong removal of electrolytic aluminum and the upward movement of the cost end, it is expected that the trend of Shanghai aluminum will still maintain a strong concussion trend next week, with an operating range of 14150 to 14300 yuan / ton.

Spot deals this week were better than last week. Spot prices range from 14150 to 14290 yuan per ton in Shanghai, 14150 to 14290 yuan per ton in Wuxi and 14180 to 14310 yuan per ton in Hangzhou. Spot aluminum prices first suppressed and then rose this week, and recovered on Friday after falling for four days in a row, as spot aluminum prices in Shanghai maintained the price gap of 20 yuan per ton from flat water to rising water for five days in a row, and the inverted hanging structure of aluminium was not changed, and the shippers shipped actively. Coupled with the fact that a large company still has a large number of shipments this week, traders and middlemen are very active. Downstream Monday due to replenishment to consider receiving goods, as spot prices fell, Thursday procurement enthusiasm significantly increased, Friday due to weekend stock also has certain purchases. Taken together, traders and downstream buyers and sellers are more active this week, confirming that consumption is one of the factors driving the continued decline in inventories.

Lead: this week, tensions between China and the United States escalated again, and the performance of funds was more cautious. The funds in the market were mainly safe-haven from the market, and non-ferrous metals showed a general downward trend. During this period, Lun lead benefited from the strong resistance of domestic lead prices, and the overall trend this week was relatively stable. The $1800 barrier support is still in effect. At the beginning of this week, high-tech enterprises such as Google in the United States plan to stop continuing cooperation with technology companies such as Huawei, and the United States has changed from trade disputes to science and technology sanctions against China. Sino-US relations have shown great signs of further deterioration, and non-ferrous metals have been sold off. On the other hand, Lun lead followed the decline, and the Dayin line closed up its gains last week. In the next few days, non-ferrous metals continued to explore, while Lun lead relied on the strong trend of domestic lead prices and struggled to support the low US $1800. During this period, it reached as low as US $1784 per ton. As of Friday, Lun lead was reported at $1817.5 a tonne, down 0.16 per cent a week. The US Index has formed a double top on the technical figure, breaking through the pressure of US $98, so it is possible for the US dollar to fall back at a high level next week, alleviating the downward pressure on Lun and lead to a certain extent, but in this round of decline, short sellers are more deeply involved. Therefore, the next Zhou Lun lead to low shock consolidation-based, the height and strength of the rebound is limited. Lun lead is expected to operate in a range of $1790 to $1850 per ton.

This week, the mainstream trading range of spot lead is 16000 to 16375 yuan per ton. Lead price resistance is better this week, downstream fear of decline compared with last week has a significant moderation, but terminal consumption is still relatively low, storage enterprises procurement to rigid demand replenishment. In terms of primary lead, refineries this week are mainly long single transactions, bulk market circulation of goods is less, as of Friday, refinery bulk single mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average discount of 25 yuan / ton to flat water. In terms of trade, the quotation of the holder follows the market, but due to the lack of optimism about the future price, the mainstream quotation of the holder has been slightly reduced. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of the domestic lead ordinary brand has increased 50 yuan to 100 yuan / ton for the 1906 contract. In terms of recycled lead, although the price of lead has stabilized, due to the impact of regional environmental protection, the production of refineries in Jiangxi, Guizhou and other areas has been affected. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of recycled lead to SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton to flat water factory.

Zinc: this week, with the further expansion of the Sino-US trade war crisis, market risk appetite was suppressed, and Len Zinc went further down the lower track of Brin Road, once exploring the support of the US $2500 / tonne integer gate. At the end of this week's concentrated overseas delivery, the LME0-3 structure remained high and refreshed again to about $155. however, LME inventories recorded a continuous decline, which effectively supported the fundamentals, but the impact of negative sentiment in the market was above the fundamentals. Len Zinc was weak and ran down the track, hitting as low as US $2504.5 per tonne. At the end of the Asian disk on Friday, with the US index lower and non-ferrous metals generally pulling up, Len Zinc quickly pulled up more than 1 per cent and reached around US $2577.5 per tonne before falling slightly. As of Friday, trading volume was down 12420 to 37657 and positions were down 2538 to 250000.

This week, Shanghai zinc main pressure multi-way moving average continued to run lower, the low hit 20000 yuan / ton. This week, the macro mood in the market is still pessimistic, and the performance of the spot market is also relatively weak. Supply growth is expected to continue to apply pressure on the trend of zinc during the period. The main zinc position in Shanghai will increase and decline, and it will make up for the decline after a brief pause at about 20650 yuan / ton. The center of gravity of the operation directly moved down to about 20130 yuan / ton, and the low hit 20000 yuan / ton, close to Friday, boosted by the external market, some short positions were squeezed out, Shanghai zinc rose 20590 yuan / ton after a slight drop, stop overcast turn red. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai zinc index rose 312000 hands to 3.845 million hands, and positions rose 2738 hands to 677000 hands.

This week, the contract between 0 # zinc and Shanghai zinc 1906 in Shanghai market has changed from 230 yuan per ton to 140 yuan per ton. 0 # Shuangyan has been transferred from 380 400 yuan / ton to 270 280 yuan / ton, and some of them have been understated to 220 yuan / ton. Imported SMC, KZ, Spain to 0 # domestic zinc maintenance discount 50 yuan / ton-liter water 10 yuan / ton, gradually digested by the downstream. The center of gravity of zinc operation in this cycle has sunk again, and the sentiment of sparing and selling in smelters is getting stronger, but the market circulation is becoming looser, coupled with the expiration of the concentration of long orders this week, and there is a strong willingness to push up prices in the market at the beginning of the week, but the long single gap is limited and it is difficult to support the rising water. There was a slight stalemate in market trading, the zinc continued to fall in the second half of the cycle, and the wait-and-see mood grew stronger downstream. In addition, some downstream suppliers had already flowed directly to the factory to replenish them. Traders were unable to ship goods and took the initiative to lower their quotations. Near the weekend, The expected feedback on the volume of inventory transfer in Guangdong in the later period accelerated the decline of spot water in Shanghai stock market to about 130 to 140 yuan / ton, which was stable in the lower reaches of the stock market, but the market trading atmosphere was still flat. The overall transaction this week was about the same as last week.

This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1907 contract rose 380 400 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market last week discount 130 yuan / ton narrowed to 40 yuan / ton discount. The refineries are relatively sparing and selling, and the enthusiasm of purchasing and buying during the week is slightly divided, and the market surface drops at the beginning of the week. Due to the long single demand, the receiving side fears that the subsequent rising water on the disk surface will rise, and the willingness to pick up the goods will gradually strengthen. Superimposed on the rigid demand of the lower reaches, the purchase and purchase of rigid demand will be superimposed. The subsequent transaction is active. The volume of out-of-stock increased significantly, and the rising water was driven up rapidly after the decline of inventory. Near the end of the week, the inventory in Guangdong recorded a drop of 10,000 tons, but in the early stage of the lower reaches, the replenishment was saturated, the fear of falling was strong, the enthusiasm for taking goods was obviously weakened, the superimposed long order was basically over, the overall demand was not good, and the rising water was loosened downward. However, the holder subsequent downward price adjustment is limited, followed by a transaction stalemate, overall, market trading this week, but the overall transaction volume is still larger than last week recorded a larger increase.

This week, the Tianjin market 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1906 contract rose by about 70 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan per ton compared with last week, and the Tianjin market narrowed from the discount of 105 yuan per ton last week to about 40 yuan per ton. During the week, zinc prices went down, refineries slightly cherished sales, but the impact was not great, the circulation of goods in the market was still relatively abundant, and the holders actively shipped within the week. However, the macro news brought about by the trade friction between China and the United States tends to be negative, and the fear of heights and cautious falls in the lower reaches is generally strong. The willingness to receive the goods is not positive, the shipment in Tianjin is not smooth, so some carriers ship the goods to East China. On the whole, due to the downward price this week, the downstream is dominated by inquiry and wait-and-see, and the delivery volume is relatively limited. Transaction brands are mostly concentrated in low-priced ordinary brands, while high-priced brands such as Zijin are mostly shipped to East China. In Tianjin market did not contribute a lot of trading volume. Overall, the transaction situation in Tianjin this week was basically flat compared with last week.

Tin: this week Lunxi continued its decline last week, with its center of gravity continuing to dip, mostly under pressure below the short-term moving average, hitting a week low of $19155 a tonne on Thursday and closing at $19345 a tonne on Thursday, down $80 from Thursday's close. The total number of transactions decreased by 946 hands compared with last week, and the position of 15911 hands decreased by 39 hands compared with last week. Risk aversion has warmed up this week as a result of the Sino-US trade war, pushing up the dollar index and driving up the overall weakness of Lunxi. After another sell-off in risky assets around the world on Thursday, us oil tumbled more than 6 per cent, hitting a two-month low with cloth oil, and Lunxi continued to downgrade its centre of gravity on Friday.

Nickel: in the first half of this week, nickel continued to test $11900 / ton below, showing a steady recovery, but the rebound gradually weakened, the first half of the week around the first half of the center of gravity around the $12000 / ton pass near the shock, above the pressure on the 20-day moving average. In the second half of the week, the center of gravity of nickel moved down to around $11800 per ton, some short positions took profits, and nickel rose again to volatility around $11900 per tonne, running below multiple moving averages for the second half of the week under pressure of $12000 per tonne. But in late Asian trading on Friday, the dollar fell sharply and the nickel rose sharply, rising as much as $12460 a tonne at one point and nearly $500in 10 minutes. By 05:30 on Friday, the nickel had fallen back to a narrow range of $12200 a tonne. This week, Lennie closed at the Zhongyang line, increasing its position by 34. 4 to 224000 hands, and the opening of the KDJ converged upward.

Shanghai nickel immediately fell back after it rose about 98500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, stopped falling around 97000 yuan / ton, stabilized and recovered to 98900 yuan / ton, and then came under pressure, and went down to 97000 yuan / ton again to be supported. However, the strength of the rebound is not as strong as before, to the 98000 level after a brief consolidation, Shanghai nickel continue to explore, the bottom of the 96000 level. Part of the short profit taking, Shanghai nickel again around the 97000 level concussion, above the pressure multiple moving average. After 02:30 in the afternoon, Shanghai nickel once rose to around 103000 yuan / ton, and short positions were forced to be reduced. Recently, trade tensions between China and the United States have escalated again, and the US dollar has been strengthening again, re-standing above the 98 mark, and the whole non-ferrous metal has been generally under pressure. Superimposed nickel supply and demand continues to weaken, the recent supply of goods continue to flow into China, the domestic rising water continues to decline. The continuous release of new capacity of nickel-iron leads to the further deterioration of the demand for pure nickel, while downstream stainless steel stocks continue to accumulate, steel mills have failed recently, stainless steel prices have fallen. Nickel prices maintained a downward trend, but the changes before Friday afternoon's close, market rumors may have been affected by the Indonesian violence, according to SMM research, the Indonesian violence did not affect the production of nickel pig iron and stainless steel. Shanghai nickel closed at the Zhongyang line this week, with positions up 8832 to 276000 tons and trading volume up 1.469 million to 4.141 million, with KDJ glued upward.

In the spot market, Russia's nickel contract against Wuxi 1906 rose about 230yuan / ton this week, down 120yuan / ton from last week, and Jinchuan 1906 contract week rose about 1500 yuan / ton, about 1300 yuan / ton less than last week. Russia nickel and Jinchuan Shengshui are down, the main domestic supply is increasing, while the downstream demand is unusually light, or due to the increase of nickel pig iron accounted for part of the pure nickel consumption. Domestic inventories will continue to increase next week, and the disk level will rise to around 100000 / ton, but considering that the cost of many traders is around 100RMB / t, it is expected that next week, Russia's nickel will still be around 100RMB / t of Wuxi's 1906 litres of water. Jinchuan to Wuxi 1906 contract water 1000 to 1400 yuan / ton. The trading volume of the market was particularly light throughout the week. Although Jinchuan and Russia's nickel rising water continued to decline, it did not boost the enthusiasm of taking goods downstream. Downstream, only a small amount of goods were picked up on demand at the positions of 96600 yuan / ton and 97000 yuan / ton, and traders generally gave feedback. This week, more in the lower reaches of the wait-and-see, one is still pessimistic about the future, the other is the incremental extrusion of nickel iron to account for some of the pure nickel demand.

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