SMM News: may 23, analyst House (Gary Howes) analysis pointed out that in the ongoing European parliamentary elections, the British, Italian and French elections are the most critical to the trend of the pound and Europe. If the Brexit party performs strongly, it will push Theresa May to step down and lift the pound by eliminating political uncertainty; if Italy's Eurosceptic Northern Union party wins, the euro may be hit. If the French Macron "Kadima Party" wins the election, it will help push forward the reform plan and benefit the euro zone economy and the euro.
If the Brexit Party performs strongly, the risk of Brexit without agreement will greatly increase, and the pound of Europe may fall to 1.03.
The 28 countries of the European Union (EU) held five-year parliamentary elections from 23 to 26 to elect the ninth European Parliament. The European Parliament election is regarded as a "bellwether" of public opinion in the European Union, which will determine the future political trend of the European Union, and even affect the later trend of the euro.
House believes that the success of the Brexit party in the election is very important, because it could speed up the ouster of British Prime Minister Theresa May. According to the latest news, the female prime minister will announce her resignation on May 24.
Glichy (Jan von Gerich), a joint market analyst in northern Europe, said that if the Brexit party performed strongly, it would be interpreted as voters more supportive of hard Brexit, which would also exacerbate such concerns in the market. That is, such a result would further cast a shadow over the outlook for the pound.
Grissey believes that the focus will not be on the approval ratings of individual political parties, but on the overall popularity of political parties that are inclined to some kind of Brexit outcome.
The pound has fallen against the euro for 14 consecutive days. The sign is a sign of growing concern that Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement on October 31.
The vote by the European Parliament will clearly reflect the will of the British people to leave the European Union. The support of Brexit parties will reflect domestic support for Brexit and is seen as a reflection of the current government's handling of Brexit.
A big defeat for the Conservative Party and a big victory for the Brexit party could lead to the ouster of Prime Minister Theresa May, which would help dispel political uncertainty in the UK and could actually push for a rebound in the pound.
House pointed out that the foreign exchange market does not like uncertainty, after the elimination of uncertainty, its natural response is to go higher. Therefore, do not underestimate the strength of the rebound in the pound after Theresa May stepped down. However, the overall trend of the pound is still in the doldrums, and with Conservative politicians vying for the top job this summer, the pound is expected to fall further.
Blackfield (Mark Haefele), UBS's global chief investment officer, said: "strong public support for Brexit is likely to enhance the appeal of new leaders considering Brexit without an agreement."
UBS believes that if the UK does not agree to leave the European Union, the pound against the dollar will fall to 1.15, while the pound against the euro will fall to 1.03.
If Italy's Eurosceptic "Northern League Party" wins, the euro may be hit.
In Italy, the success of the Northern League party led by Deputy Prime Minister Salvini (Matteo Salvini) will be another key factor affecting the direction of the euro. In fact, Salvini's support for the Northern League has risen as a result of his antagonistic stance against the European Union. At the same time, polls show that the support of the "five-star movement" has been hit hard.
If the Northern Union party does well in the European Parliament vote, Mr Salvini may not be able to resist the desire to break the current government and try to push for early elections in Italy, said Grissey, a joint market analyst in northern Europe. He is trying to join forces with more traditional allies, with the goal of winning the throne of Italian prime minister. "it is well known that Salvini is skeptical of the European Union and blatantly defies EU rules," Grunch said. If elected, he will scare financial markets, which is likely to lead to renewed turmoil in Italian bond markets and may even undermine confidence in the eurozone economy. " Huitong Xiaobian believes that this result will undoubtedly put pressure on the euro.
If the French Macron "Kadima Party" wins, it will help push forward the reform plan and benefit the euro zone economy and the euro.
On May 26, France will hold a vote in the European Parliament elections. In the face of the powerful far-right parties in the limelight, French President Macron and his ruling party face a severe test. In order to win more seats in the European Parliament, French centrist parties, traditional left-wing or right-wing parties, populists and "yellow vest" movement groups are in fierce competition. This year, 2686 candidates from 34 French parties took part in the European Parliament elections, the largest number of candidates and candidates in history.
Macron is said to be trying to build a more integrated European Union, but the future of the plan remains uncertain. Macron made strengthening European unity a plan of his own, saying it would be more effective in bringing wealth and stability to the population. However, Macron faces incredible resistance at home, with many French people opposed to his domestic reform agenda. The unrest caused by the so-called "yellow vest" movement has translated into broader dissatisfaction with the president's administration of the country.
Grissey said the European Parliament vote was also important for Macron's domestic reform plan.
At present, Macron's "Republic Kadima Party" is on a par with Le Pen's "National Front." Mr Grunch believes Macron's victory will boost his agenda as well as the euro. He believes Macron's reforms offer hope for the eurozone as a whole, showing that there are other options for the eurozone in addition to the simple but flawed solutions offered by the rising wave of populism. In other words, Macron's reforms are not only about the prospects of France, but also about the eurozone as a whole.