SMM News: on Tuesday, international gold prices fell all the way down at night, breaking the $1270 / oz mark, the lowest level in three weeks. At a time when international gold and silver and oil prices are weak and the dollar is strong, the pound next door has been beset by Brexit.
Risk aversion eased on Tuesday, with international gold prices falling all the way down at night, breaking the $1270 / oz mark for the first time since May 3, falling 0.5 per cent on the day to a three-week low. International silver is also lower, oil prices are under pressure, and the dollar is good. News of Brexit came one after another, with the pound falling seven against the dollar. The dollar expanded its gains against the yen, breaking its 100-day moving average to a two-week high.
1API data showed that U. S. crude oil stocks unexpectedly increased, the United States and cloth oil fell in the short term. Us stocks of API crude oil recorded 2.4 million barrels in the week to May 17, with an expected reduction of 2.53 million barrels. Us crude stocks rose 2.4 million barrels to 480.2 million barrels last week, according to the API report. Us crude oil imports fell 106000 barrels a day to 7.7 million barrels a day last week. Bart Melek, chief commodities analyst at Dow Securities, said oil prices were still at good levels despite poor macroeconomic performance. In the case of low risk appetite, the oil price supply side plays a good supporting role.
The OECD lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2019 and raised its forecast for US economic growth. The OECD expects global GDP to grow by 3.2 per cent in 2019 and remain unchanged at 3.4 per cent in 2020, according to the economic outlook. The eurozone economy is expected to grow by 1.2 per cent in 2019, up from 1.0 per cent. The US economy is expected to grow by 2.8 per cent in 2019, up from 2.6 per cent. The UK economy is expected to grow by 1.2 per cent in 2019 (up from 0.8 per cent) and 1.0 per cent in 2020. The eurozone economy is expected to grow by 1.2 per cent in 2019 (up from 1.0 per cent) and 1.4 per cent in 2020 (up from 1.2 per cent). The OECD said global growth was still "below normal" amid tensions.
Rosengren, the Federal Reserve, said there was no reason for the Fed to change its interest rate policy at the moment. Mr Rosengren believes that the current policy is slightly looser, in line with the goal of returning inflation to 2 per cent. The tightening of the labour market is one of the reasons why inflation is expected to rise to the Fed's target. Although economic growth is expected to slow slightly from last year, there is enough momentum to push down the unemployment rate. The US economy grew fast enough to push unemployment down further in 2019.
The leader of the British Labour Party, Corbyn, said that the Labour Party will not support British Prime Minister Theresa May's new Brexit bill. British Prime Minister Theresa May is ready to give lawmakers the option to vote in a second referendum, raising the pound by nearly 80 points, according to sources. Despite what she called a "further major adjustment", many hardline MPs have decided not to vote for the Brexit bill next month. Former British Foreign Secretary Johnson also said he would vote against Theresa May's plan to leave the European Union. After the news, the pound weakened in the short term, down 0.11%.
RBA Chairman Lowe said the Australian dollar is under pressure after considering a rate cut in June. Lowe said the rate cut would support upward employment and inflation and that the job market needed to be further improved and that there was room for fiscal policy and structural reforms to stimulate employment. The RBA also said in its monetary policy minutes that employment indicators showed a mixed near-term outlook, considering that it might be appropriate to cut interest rates in both scenarios if the job market did not improve further.
Shelton, a US economist, threatened that the Fed should phase out the current interest rate setting framework. Shelton said in an interview that if the nomination is confirmed, her main goal will be to abolish the way the Fed currently implements monetary policy decisions. "what worries me most about the way the Fed works right now is the mechanism." "We can discuss whether interest rates should be raised or cut, but we would like to see interest rates determined by the market."
The 7IMF report says the Bank of Canada should keep interest rates unchanged in the near future. As the gap between potential and real growth narrows, it is necessary for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates further, but in a gradual manner. The preliminary results of the report show that there is uncertainty about the size of the output gap and the level of neutral policy interest rates. In addition, IMF pointed out that if Canada's economic growth prospects deteriorate, the Bank of Canada should be prepared to cut policy interest rates.
Morgan Stanley expects the oil market to run short of about 1.1 million barrels a day in the third quarter. Morgan Stanley updated its oil price forecast today and expects Brent crude to trade in the range of $75 to $80 a barrel in the second half of the year and return to about $65 a barrel from the first quarter of 2020. It is expected that after the third quarter, the International Maritime Organization's new rules for the sulfur content of marine fuel oil (IMO2020) will stimulate refinery oil production, which will keep the oil market tight until the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.
The report showed that investors' view of US Treasuries was the most optimistic since 2010. Affected by the situation, demand for low-risk bonds is strong, and bond investors are the most optimistic about longer-term Treasuries in about eight and a half years. The proportion of investors who said they had long or longer-term positions in US bonds exceeded their portfolio benchmark rose to 36 per cent on Monday, the highest level since November 2010 and up from 32 per cent a week ago, according to the latest JPMorgan survey.
[risk early warning]
Federal Reserve Brad and Federal Reserve Williams will deliver speeches today. Brad will deliver a speech on US economic and monetary policy, and Williams will participate in a panel discussion at an economic news briefing dominated by young families, paying attention to whether senior officials have made a decisive statement on monetary policy. In the early hours of the next morning, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting, paying attention to the volatility of the dollar.
The UK will release a series of data at 16:30 in the afternoon on the monthly rate of the retail price index for April and the annual rate of the core retail price index for April. The recent Brexit progress has been repeatedly weak in sterling, which may boost the market.