Wu Anjun: the key factors affecting Aluminum Price

Supply and demand: the relationship between supply and demand directly affects the market pricing of commodities. When the market supply and demand is in a temporary balance, the market price of Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate in a narrow range. When supply and demand are out of balance, prices fluctuate sharply. In the futures market, investors can pay attention to inventory, which is an important index reflecting the change of aluminum supply and demand. Inventory is divided into reported inventory and non-reported inventory, also known as "dominant inventory", is the futures exchange regularly announced its designated delivery warehouse aluminum inventory quantity. Non-reported inventories, which refer mainly to the amount of aluminum held by producers, traders and consumers around the world, are also known as "hidden stocks" because they are not counted and released by a specialized agency.

Alumina supply: alumina is the main raw material for electrolytic aluminum production. Due to the high concentration of the international alumina market, most of the alumina in the world (85%) is sold through long-term contracts, so there is less alumina available for sale on the spot market.

Electricity price: electrolytic aluminum industry, also known as "electric tiger" industry, at present, the average ton power consumption of aluminum plants at home and abroad is controlled below 15000 kwh/t. The comprehensive AC power consumption of Chinese aluminum ingot manufacturers has been greatly reduced to about 14000kwh/t in recent years. As China is an energy shortage country, the electricity price has been raised several times in recent years. Therefore, electric power factors restrict the development of electrolytic aluminum in China.

Economic situation: aluminum is a widely used variety of non-ferrous metals, especially in developed countries or regions. Aluminum consumption has been highly related to economic development. When the economy of a country or region develops rapidly, aluminum consumption will also increase synchronously. Similarly, a recession will lead to a decline in aluminum consumption in some industries, which in turn will lead to fluctuations in aluminum prices. In addition, the price fluctuation of some metals related to aluminum, the fluctuation of international oil price and the change of industrial policy of various countries will have an impact on aluminum price.

Import and export tariffs, international exchange rates: international aluminum trade is generally marked and settled in US dollars, in recent years, the impact of the trend of the US dollar on aluminum prices is obvious. The impact of import and export tariffs on aluminum prices is particularly prominent in China. China is a big importer of alumina. In order to protect the domestic alumina industry before China's entry into WTO, the import tariff is 18%. According to the WTO rules, China adjusted the alumina tariff to 12% in 2002. Since November 2006, not only has there been no tax rebate, but a tariff of 15% has also been imposed. Tariffs have also been adjusted continuously in recent years. It can be seen that the changes in tariffs and international exchange rates affect the prices of the aluminum market.

Changes in the scope of aluminum applications: changes in the use surface and usage of aluminum ingots in major industries, such as automotive manufacturing, construction engineering, wires and cables, will bring about significant changes in the price of aluminum.

Wu Anjun brief introduction: good at colored, black and other futures varieties, with the combination of fundamentals and quantitative technology interpretation, and provide operational guidance.

Wu Anjun focused on quantitative research for the whole decade, developed a number of quantitative hedge systems and participated in the national futures competition to achieve steady profits. Good at finding the correct medium-and long-term multi-empty direction from the fundamentals of each variety, using the quantitative model to carry on the whole procedure transaction. On the basis of accurately grasping the general trend of the market, more accurately capture the entry point and exit point, often double or several times the profit effect.

Statement: Wu Anjun's point of view is shared with you and does not constitute investment advice for you. Operate accordingly, at your own risk! If you need major investment advice for other varieties, please call.

For guidance from Wu Anjun, please contact: Wu Tingting: 021 51595784 13795448891

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