[SMM Analysis] the implementation of Guozhou 6 is even worse in the field of recycled aluminum.-Shanghai Metals Market

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[SMM Analysis] the implementation of Guozhou 6 is even worse in the field of recycled aluminum.

Translation 05:05:29PM May 19, 2019 Source:Shanghai Nonferrous Network

1. Why is country six?

In short, National 6 is the year issued "Light vehicle Pollutant Emission limit value and Measurement method (China sixth stage) (GB 18352.6-2016)" and "heavy Diesel vehicle Pollutant Emission limit value and Measurement method (China sixth stage)" (GB17691-2018) the national standards for the discharge of pollutants from motor vehicles in the sixth stage.

Even the relatively loose national six standards are obviously stricter than the national five standards.

II. Implementation

According to the original plan, the implementation time of State VI should be July 1, 2020. However, due to the pressure of environmental protection, the 14 provincial administrative regions will begin to implement Guozhou 6 ahead of schedule on July 1, 2019, especially in places such as Bei Shangguang and Tianjin.

Source: world car

III. The recycled aluminum market is even worse.

According to the communication between SMM and some automobile factories, the main technical difficulty of the emission problem of China sixth is in the power system, and more than half of the automobile factories have long been planned, and the relevant models have already been approved. According to data from the Motor vehicle Emission Monitoring Center, as of May 16, 2019, a total of 84 enterprises, 1856 models and 3186117 vehicles had made light vehicle country six environmental protection information public. It can be seen that the main problem is still in the huge inventory of five cars.

However, due to the improvement of the number of domestic cars, the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, coupled with the slowdown of domestic economic development, the process of going to the warehouse is not smooth. According to CAAC data, from January to April, automobile production and sales completed 8.389 million and 8.353 million vehicles respectively, with production and sales down 11 per cent and 12.1 per cent respectively over the same period last year, an increase of 1.2 and 0.8 percentage points respectively over the period from January to March.

Now, less than two months after the arrival of Guofu, the promotion of Guofu is unprecedented, and in order to go to the warehouse of Guofu, the promotion of Guofu also has some slowdown, which will make the orders of recycled aluminum enterprises whose terminals are mainly cars continue to be depressed. It's even worse. And even if car consumption improves, considering the lag of production transmission and inventory, the recycled aluminum industry is far from reaching the bottom, and the problem of oversupply will continue to depress the price of traditional recycled aluminum alloys.

On the other hand, the downstream consumption of raw aluminum, which has a greater impact on aluminum prices, has performed better, and the inventory of social aluminum ingots has been declining in the second quarter. In addition, the recent red mud problem caused by alumina has led to a reduction in alumina operation capacity, and aluminum prices have been rising, supporting the price of waste aluminum. To make it difficult to fall. At the same time, with the opening of the import window, some imported raw materials will also impact the market in the future. The author believes that the sales price of finished products of recycled aluminum enterprises will continue to fall in the next two months, but it is difficult to reduce the cost. Shrinking profits or even obvious losses will be the most difficult period for the recycled aluminium industry. In the increasingly competitive domestic market, perhaps the proper development of some of the original aluminum casting aluminum alloy products and production reduction can make enterprises survive longer.

[SMM Analysis] the implementation of Guozhou 6 is even worse in the field of recycled aluminum.

Translation 05:05:29PM May 19, 2019 Source:Shanghai Nonferrous Network

1. Why is country six?

In short, National 6 is the year issued "Light vehicle Pollutant Emission limit value and Measurement method (China sixth stage) (GB 18352.6-2016)" and "heavy Diesel vehicle Pollutant Emission limit value and Measurement method (China sixth stage)" (GB17691-2018) the national standards for the discharge of pollutants from motor vehicles in the sixth stage.

Even the relatively loose national six standards are obviously stricter than the national five standards.

II. Implementation

According to the original plan, the implementation time of State VI should be July 1, 2020. However, due to the pressure of environmental protection, the 14 provincial administrative regions will begin to implement Guozhou 6 ahead of schedule on July 1, 2019, especially in places such as Bei Shangguang and Tianjin.

Source: world car

III. The recycled aluminum market is even worse.

According to the communication between SMM and some automobile factories, the main technical difficulty of the emission problem of China sixth is in the power system, and more than half of the automobile factories have long been planned, and the relevant models have already been approved. According to data from the Motor vehicle Emission Monitoring Center, as of May 16, 2019, a total of 84 enterprises, 1856 models and 3186117 vehicles had made light vehicle country six environmental protection information public. It can be seen that the main problem is still in the huge inventory of five cars.

However, due to the improvement of the number of domestic cars, the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, coupled with the slowdown of domestic economic development, the process of going to the warehouse is not smooth. According to CAAC data, from January to April, automobile production and sales completed 8.389 million and 8.353 million vehicles respectively, with production and sales down 11 per cent and 12.1 per cent respectively over the same period last year, an increase of 1.2 and 0.8 percentage points respectively over the period from January to March.

Now, less than two months after the arrival of Guofu, the promotion of Guofu is unprecedented, and in order to go to the warehouse of Guofu, the promotion of Guofu also has some slowdown, which will make the orders of recycled aluminum enterprises whose terminals are mainly cars continue to be depressed. It's even worse. And even if car consumption improves, considering the lag of production transmission and inventory, the recycled aluminum industry is far from reaching the bottom, and the problem of oversupply will continue to depress the price of traditional recycled aluminum alloys.

On the other hand, the downstream consumption of raw aluminum, which has a greater impact on aluminum prices, has performed better, and the inventory of social aluminum ingots has been declining in the second quarter. In addition, the recent red mud problem caused by alumina has led to a reduction in alumina operation capacity, and aluminum prices have been rising, supporting the price of waste aluminum. To make it difficult to fall. At the same time, with the opening of the import window, some imported raw materials will also impact the market in the future. The author believes that the sales price of finished products of recycled aluminum enterprises will continue to fall in the next two months, but it is difficult to reduce the cost. Shrinking profits or even obvious losses will be the most difficult period for the recycled aluminium industry. In the increasingly competitive domestic market, perhaps the proper development of some of the original aluminum casting aluminum alloy products and production reduction can make enterprises survive longer.