SMM News: the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to April this year, the national real estate development investment hit a new high, and the growth rate of commercial housing sales continued to increase. At the same time, however, the area of housing completed in the first four months fell by 10.3%, and the purchase area and transaction price of land purchased by housing enterprises fell by more than 30%.
It is worth noting that more than 30 cities in the country adjusted their provident fund policies in the previous April. In April, there has been a marked increase in the number of cities that have issued tightening policies on real estate regulation and control, and policies in many places, including Suzhou, have been tightened. Industry insiders predict that in the short term, the regulation and control policy at the national level will not be relaxed, the national property market will continue to cool down, and the financial pressure on housing enterprises will still be large.
In the first four months, the sales of commercial housing approached $4 trillion, and the amount of land bought by housing enterprises fell by more than 30%.
According to the National Real Estate Development Investment and sales situation from January to April 2019, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 15, the national real estate development investment in the first four months was 3.4217 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.9 percent over the same period last year, the highest level since December 2014.
From January to April, commercial housing sales totaled 3.9141 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points. In April, the national housing boom index continued to rise to 100.92.
Shen Xin, a researcher at the Yi Ju Research Institute, told the Daily Economic News: "taking these circumstances into account, it is expected that the regulation and control policies at the national level will not be relaxed in the short term, and the national property market will continue to cool down. The financial pressure of housing enterprises is still relatively large, the market as a whole is expected to remain stable in the next few months, and the growth rate of a number of indicators will slow down. "
The completed area fell by 16 months compared with the same period last year.
From January to April, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 7.22569 billion square meters, an increase of 8.8 percent over the same period last year, and the residential construction area was 5.01832 billion square meters, an increase of 10.4 percent. Among them, the growth rate of new housing starts increased slightly by 1.2%. New construction area was 585.52 million square meters, an increase of 13.1 per cent, of which residential new construction area was 433.35 million square metres, an increase of 13.8 per cent.
It is worth noting that the area of housing completed in the first four months was 225.64 million square meters, a decrease of 10.3 percent, and the decline was narrowed by 0.5 percentage points. Shen Xin analysis believes that from the housing new construction area year-on-year growth trend, this year in January-April than in January-March increased by 1.2 percentage points. In the second quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of new construction area is also expected to slow down, taking into account the high probability of low consolidation of sales growth.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the Yi Ju Research Institute, pointed out: "this is the phenomenon that the completed area of houses has dropped for 16 months in a row compared with the same period last year. However, with the development of the supply side of the follow-up real estate market, it is expected that the possibility of a continuous decline in the scale of completion of the project will be reduced, which is also conducive to the increase in the scale of follow-up housing delivery. "
Commercial housing sales approach $4 trillion
Data show that the area of commercial housing sales fell 0.3% from January to April compared with the same period last year. It has been negative for three months in a row, but the decline has not widened.
Among them, residential sales area was 36796, an increase of 0.4 percent over the same period last year. However, sales of office buildings and commercial premises fell 12.4 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively, dragging down the overall data.
From January to April, commercial housing sales totaled 3.9141 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points. Among them, the sales of commercial housing in the eastern region totaled 2.1023 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.0 percent, an increase of 4.9 percentage points, and the sales of commercial housing in the western region totaled 855.3 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8 percent. Sales of commercial housing in the central region totaled 833.4 billion yuan, up 10.4 percent, while sales of commercial housing in the northeast region totaled 123 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3 percent.
"in fact, starting in March, housing sales around the slightly Yangchun trend, housing sales performance is generally good, the mood around the purchase of houses has also slightly improved, so this will make the housing market performance is good. According to the Bureau of Statistics, the scale of housing sales is actually showing a positive growth trend. In addition, some cities in the new housing scale is not much, the second-hand housing market has also become active. " Yan Yuejin said.
The amount of land purchased by enterprises has been reduced by more than 30%.
From January to April, real estate development enterprises put in 5.2466 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.9 percent over the same period last year and an increase of 3 percent over the period from January to March.
In the environment of the recovery of the property market in many places, from January to April, enterprise deposits and advance receipts totaled 1.7249 trillion yuan, up 15.1 percent, personal mortgage loans totaled 803.1 billion yuan, up 12.4 percent, and domestic loans totaled 895.5 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7 percent. The utilization of foreign capital was 3.4 billion yuan, an increase of 1.0 times, and self-raised funds of 1.5687 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.3 per cent.
It is worth noting that from January to April, the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises was 35.82 million square meters, down 33.8 percent from the same period last year, and the decline was 0.7 percentage points larger than that from January to March. The transaction price of land was 159 billion yuan, down 33.5 percent, an increase of 6.5 percentage points.
Although the growth rate of funds in place for real estate development enterprises has increased somewhat compared with the same period last year, from a structural point of view, the growth rate of funds in place mainly comes from deposits and advance receipts and personal mortgage loans, and the situation of domestic loans is still relatively grim. The financial pressure of housing enterprises is still large.
Yan Yuejin said that the capital data in place is better than expected, and has a direct impact on the future investment of enterprises. At present, the financing channels of real estate enterprises do have a better expansion, from the performance of the follow-up market, real estate enterprises will also cause the improvement of capital and speed up the purchase of land and new construction, at the same time, the initiative to reduce prices in sales will also be reduced. At the same time, it needs to be noted that some of the urban land market has also been controlled in the near future, and the subsequent housing sales market has also been uncertain.
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