- Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)

Published: May 17, 2019 14:51

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(ILZSG), the international lead and zinc research group, expects a surplus of lead and a shortage of zinc in 2019. ILZSG expects the excess of lead to reach 71000 tons in 2019. Global lead demand fell 0.2 per cent in 2018, but is expected to grow 1.2 per cent this year to 11.87 million tons. ILZSG expects global lead production to grow 1.8 per cent to 4.75 million tons in 2019. However, the situation of zinc and lead is very similar. Demand for zinc is expected to be strong this year, with a supply shortfall of 121000 tons. Demand for zinc is expected to grow 0.6 per cent this year to 13.77 million tons.

SMM5 17-according to foreign media reports, the international lead and zinc research organization (ILZSG) predicted that there will be a surplus of lead in 2019, while zinc is in short supply.

ILZSG expects the excess of lead to reach 71000 tons in 2019.

Global lead demand fell 0.2 per cent in 2018, but is expected to grow 1.2 per cent this year to 11.87 million tons.

Lead use in India, Japan and South Korea is expected to rise, which will help offset an estimated 1.1 per cent decline in lead use in China, ILZSG said.

At the same time, lead use in the US and Europe is expected to increase by 1.1 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively.

But the growth on the lead supply side is more pronounced than demand.

ILZSG expects global lead production to grow 1.8 per cent to 4.75 million tons in 2019.

Refined lead production is expected to rise 2.5 per cent to 11.94 million tonnes, thanks mainly to growth in China and India. In addition, Australia's refined lead production is expected to surge 14.3 per cent in 2019.

However, the situation of zinc and lead is very similar.

Demand for zinc is expected to be strong this year, with a supply shortfall of 121000 tons.

ILZSG expects demand for zinc to grow 0.6 per cent this year to 13.77 million tons. Use in Europe is expected to grow by 0.7%, as will India and Mexico.

On the supply side, zinc production is expected to grow by 6.2 per cent in 2019 (compared with 1.3 per cent in 2018). Like lead, zinc production in Australia is expected to surge by 29.4 per cent. But US zinc production is expected to fall 2.3 per cent this year.

Refined zinc production is expected to rise 3.6 per cent to 13.65 million tonnes, including a rebound in China, which will grow 5.3 per cent this year after falling 3.1 per cent in 2018.

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Lead zinc production price forecasting production capacity

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