[agency Review] pessimism has moderated, lead prices are low and prices are high

Published: May 17, 2019 08:03

Source: Wenhua Finance and Economics

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SMM Network News:

Disk trend:

On May 16, there was no macro bad news today. Shanghai lead main force 1906 opened low and high, closing at 16275 yuan / ton, up 210 yuan / ton, or 1.31%.

In terms of funding:

The Shanghai lead main 1906 trading ranking shows that the number of the top 20 long positions is 19094, a decrease of 715 hands from the previous trading day. Among them, letter futures reduced its holdings by 616 hands. The number of short positions in the top 20 was 19213, down 629 from the previous trading day, and there was no significant change in the top 20 short positions. The capital flow is on the short side today.

Spot information:

Sea market southern lead 16210 to 16250 yuan / ton, 80 to 120 yuan / ton for 1906 contract, 16230 yuan / ton for 1906 contract, 16280 to 16380 yuan / ton for Sands, 150 to 250 yuan / ton for 1906 contract. The futures market gradually picked up, the risk aversion mood of the downstream storage enterprises eased, and they purchased on demand one after another. At the same time, the supply of goods in the current circulation market was limited, the quotations of the holders were strong, a few raised the quotations, and the premium of recycled refined lead was narrowed. Some of the downstream demand flows back to the original lead (biased to the refinery supply), and the trading activity of the bulk market is better.

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 16075 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead discount 75 yuan / ton, southern storage southern lead 16130 yuan / ton, 1906 contract flat water quotation; Lead prices continue to rise, and the trend within the day is relatively good, downstream procurement sentiment has been restored, market trading in general.

Henan Yuguang, Minshan, Wanyang to long single transaction; Jinli 16100 to 16150 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead price discount 50 yuan / ton to Pingshui quotation; lead price rose low, downstream to replenish the warehouse, the market trading is slightly better.

Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16250 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rising 16250 yuan / ton (trader source), Yunnan small factory lead 15800 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average discount 350yuan / ton; River copper 16200 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50 yuan / ton;

Inventory changes:

As at 16 May, stocks in the previous period stood at 18606 tons, a decrease of 77 tons compared with the previous trading day.

As of 16 May, LME stocks stood at 73500 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous trading day.

Market prediction:

Overall, the profit of recycled lead will be negative again, the production sentiment of recycled lead smelter will be hit, the price of lead will be supported, there is no macro bad news in the past two days, and the pressure on lead price will be reduced. Technically, KDJ index appears gold fork, MACD index green column is short, Shanghai lead is expected to have a strong concussion at night, the operating range is 16100 to 16500.

Price inventory market

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