[institutional comments] Hongyuan futures: Shanghai copper upward repair, alumina production shutdown on aluminum prices pull limited-Shanghai Metals Market

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[institutional comments] Hongyuan futures: Shanghai copper upward repair, alumina production shutdown on aluminum prices pull limited

Translation 10:40:20AM May 16, 2019 Source:Hongyuan futures
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Aluminum industry news: 1. [red mud filtrate leakage 6.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Shanxi will be shut down] because of environmental protection problems such as leakage of red mud dam filtrate from alumina plants in Xiaoyi and Jiaokou areas of Shanxi Province, some alumina plants in Shanxi area are facing forced shutdown of production. The annual capacity involved is about 6.6 million tons. A total of three alumina plants are facing a shutdown, one of which was suspended on Friday. There are 15 alumina production enterprises in Shanxi, with a total annual capacity of about 25.4 million tons, accounting for 29.47% of the total national production capacity. In the first quarter of 2019, the output of alumina in Shanxi Province was about 6.877 million tons, accounting for about 30.2% of the national output. In April, the national alumina production was about 5.827 million tons, the electrolytic aluminum production was about 2.99 million tons, and the alumina supply was in short supply. If the above three alumina plants are all shut down, the annual production capacity will reach 6.6 million tons, and the domestic alumina supply will be even more scarce. 2. [Chinalco raised its price to 3050 yuan / ton for the fourth time since April] Aluminum Corporation of China Limited issued a new notice again in a short period of time-"notice on the minimum Price for the Sale of non-Metallurgical Alumina and ordinary Aluminum hydroxide". This is the fourth price increase since April. The content mentioned another price increase for the alumina market, which rose to the current 3050 yuan per ton. Inventory changes: LME inventory 125.02 (- 0.52) million tons, aluminum ingot social inventory 1.373 million tons (- 3), aluminum bar inventory 97000 tons (- 0.25), aluminum ingot output 151000 tons (2.4). Summary: yesterday Shanghai aluminum day within the night price rose slightly, the main contract closed at 14360. The shutdown of alumina production caused by the red mud leak in Shanxi has triggered a new round of upward flushing, but the upward space of Shanghai aluminum is limited. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum grows slowly, and there is no significant pull on the demand for alumina, while the new production capacity of domestic alumina is released as planned, the volume of overseas new production capacity is huge, and the price of overseas alumina remains low, which is conducive to import. There is no concern about supply shortage of alumina in the long term, so the transmission of price to electrolytic aluminum is limited. Electrolytic aluminum as a whole is still going to the warehouse in the peak season, the fundamentals are supported, alumina hype factors dissipate, aluminum prices may return to the fourth line of shock.

Price

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Aluminum Ingot
Nov.15
13920.0
-10.0
(-0.07%)
Aluminum Ingot - Fo Shan
Nov.15
13870.0
-10.0
(-0.07%)
Aluminum Ingot - Wu Xi
Nov.15
13940.0
0.0
(0.00%)
Aluminum Ingot - Hang Zhou
Nov.15
13960.0
0.0
(0.00%)
Aluminum Ingot - Chong Qing
Nov.15
13900.0
0.0
(0.00%)

[institutional comments] Hongyuan futures: Shanghai copper upward repair, alumina production shutdown on aluminum prices pull limited

Translation 10:40:20AM May 16, 2019 Source:Hongyuan futures
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Aluminum industry news: 1. [red mud filtrate leakage 6.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Shanxi will be shut down] because of environmental protection problems such as leakage of red mud dam filtrate from alumina plants in Xiaoyi and Jiaokou areas of Shanxi Province, some alumina plants in Shanxi area are facing forced shutdown of production. The annual capacity involved is about 6.6 million tons. A total of three alumina plants are facing a shutdown, one of which was suspended on Friday. There are 15 alumina production enterprises in Shanxi, with a total annual capacity of about 25.4 million tons, accounting for 29.47% of the total national production capacity. In the first quarter of 2019, the output of alumina in Shanxi Province was about 6.877 million tons, accounting for about 30.2% of the national output. In April, the national alumina production was about 5.827 million tons, the electrolytic aluminum production was about 2.99 million tons, and the alumina supply was in short supply. If the above three alumina plants are all shut down, the annual production capacity will reach 6.6 million tons, and the domestic alumina supply will be even more scarce. 2. [Chinalco raised its price to 3050 yuan / ton for the fourth time since April] Aluminum Corporation of China Limited issued a new notice again in a short period of time-"notice on the minimum Price for the Sale of non-Metallurgical Alumina and ordinary Aluminum hydroxide". This is the fourth price increase since April. The content mentioned another price increase for the alumina market, which rose to the current 3050 yuan per ton. Inventory changes: LME inventory 125.02 (- 0.52) million tons, aluminum ingot social inventory 1.373 million tons (- 3), aluminum bar inventory 97000 tons (- 0.25), aluminum ingot output 151000 tons (2.4). Summary: yesterday Shanghai aluminum day within the night price rose slightly, the main contract closed at 14360. The shutdown of alumina production caused by the red mud leak in Shanxi has triggered a new round of upward flushing, but the upward space of Shanghai aluminum is limited. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum grows slowly, and there is no significant pull on the demand for alumina, while the new production capacity of domestic alumina is released as planned, the volume of overseas new production capacity is huge, and the price of overseas alumina remains low, which is conducive to import. There is no concern about supply shortage of alumina in the long term, so the transmission of price to electrolytic aluminum is limited. Electrolytic aluminum as a whole is still going to the warehouse in the peak season, the fundamentals are supported, alumina hype factors dissipate, aluminum prices may return to the fourth line of shock.