Macro Roundup (May 15)-Shanghai Metals Market

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Macro Roundup (May 15)

Data Analysis 09:22:53AM May 15, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, May 15 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The dollar rose rebounded from a nearly one-month low hit in the previous session, as US and Chinese officials said the two countries would continue to negotiate on trade. 

US President Donald Trump insisted on Tuesday that trade talks with China had not collapsed and called the widening US-China tariff war "a little squabble", even as his administration readies 25% duties on all remaining Chinese imports.

The euro fell against the dollar on Tuesday after Italy’s deputy prime minister said the country is ready to break European Union budget rules on debt levels if necessary to spur employment.

LME base metals rallied across the board as tin led the increase and jumped 2.17%. LME aluminium rose 1.57%, nickel climbed 1.4%, lead grew 1.23%, zinc expanded 0.52%, and copper advanced 0.37%. SHFE metals, except for copper, also ended higher as aluminium gained 0.95%, zinc rose 0.79%, lead jumped 0.69%, tin went up 0.53%, and nickel increased 0.43%.

Kansas City Fed President Esther George said in a speech on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve does not need to cut interest rates to boost inflation.

George said, "low inflation is of little concern to anyone but financial market participants and economists who fear that the central bank is undershooting its 2% target and thus should ease policy to boost activity".

Economic sentiment in Germany eased in May, as the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment dropped to -2.1 for May, compared with the expected 5 and April’s 3.1, lower than the long-term average of 22.1. The sub-index current conditions figure jumped to 8.2, up from the previous 5.5 and the expected 7.5. 

"The decline in the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment shows that the financial market experts continue to expect restrained economic growth in Germany for the next six months. The most recent escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China again increases the uncertainty regarding German exports – a key factor for the growth of the gross domestic product," ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said. 

Eurozone industrial production dropped 0.3% on the month in March, matched expectations. On a yearly basis, industrial production dropped 0.6%, above the expectation of -0.8%. 

Output was driven down mostly by a 1% drop in non-durable consumer goods, such as food or toothpaste, as retail sales came to a halt in the bloc in March. The largest economy of the currency bloc, Germany, posted a 0.4% hike, after two consecutive monthly falls.

The cost of goods imported into the US rose mildly in April, mostly because of the higher cost of oil. The import price index climbed 0.2% last month, the government said Tuesday. That was well below an expected increase of 0.7%.

If fuel is excluded, import prices actually fell 0.1% — the fourth straight decline. Overall, import prices have fallen 0.2% in the past 12 months despite higher oil prices. By contrast, they were running at a 3.5% annual clip a year earlier.

Day ahead

Economic data slated for release today include China’s industrial added value and its retail sales of consumer goods for April, Germany and the eurozone’s gross domestic product for the first quarter, as well as the US retail sales, industrial output for April, and its weekly crude oil inventories by API and EIA.

Key Words:  Macroeconomics 

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1# Silver ingots(99.99%)
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3854.0
-35.0
(-0.90%)
2# Silver ingots(99.95%)
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3839.0
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3# Silver ingots(99.90%)
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3824.0
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Gold(99.99%)
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318.4
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318.2
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Macro Roundup (May 15)

Data Analysis 09:22:53AM May 15, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, May 15 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The dollar rose rebounded from a nearly one-month low hit in the previous session, as US and Chinese officials said the two countries would continue to negotiate on trade. 

US President Donald Trump insisted on Tuesday that trade talks with China had not collapsed and called the widening US-China tariff war "a little squabble", even as his administration readies 25% duties on all remaining Chinese imports.

The euro fell against the dollar on Tuesday after Italy’s deputy prime minister said the country is ready to break European Union budget rules on debt levels if necessary to spur employment.

LME base metals rallied across the board as tin led the increase and jumped 2.17%. LME aluminium rose 1.57%, nickel climbed 1.4%, lead grew 1.23%, zinc expanded 0.52%, and copper advanced 0.37%. SHFE metals, except for copper, also ended higher as aluminium gained 0.95%, zinc rose 0.79%, lead jumped 0.69%, tin went up 0.53%, and nickel increased 0.43%.

Kansas City Fed President Esther George said in a speech on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve does not need to cut interest rates to boost inflation.

George said, "low inflation is of little concern to anyone but financial market participants and economists who fear that the central bank is undershooting its 2% target and thus should ease policy to boost activity".

Economic sentiment in Germany eased in May, as the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment dropped to -2.1 for May, compared with the expected 5 and April’s 3.1, lower than the long-term average of 22.1. The sub-index current conditions figure jumped to 8.2, up from the previous 5.5 and the expected 7.5. 

"The decline in the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment shows that the financial market experts continue to expect restrained economic growth in Germany for the next six months. The most recent escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China again increases the uncertainty regarding German exports – a key factor for the growth of the gross domestic product," ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said. 

Eurozone industrial production dropped 0.3% on the month in March, matched expectations. On a yearly basis, industrial production dropped 0.6%, above the expectation of -0.8%. 

Output was driven down mostly by a 1% drop in non-durable consumer goods, such as food or toothpaste, as retail sales came to a halt in the bloc in March. The largest economy of the currency bloc, Germany, posted a 0.4% hike, after two consecutive monthly falls.

The cost of goods imported into the US rose mildly in April, mostly because of the higher cost of oil. The import price index climbed 0.2% last month, the government said Tuesday. That was well below an expected increase of 0.7%.

If fuel is excluded, import prices actually fell 0.1% — the fourth straight decline. Overall, import prices have fallen 0.2% in the past 12 months despite higher oil prices. By contrast, they were running at a 3.5% annual clip a year earlier.

Day ahead

Economic data slated for release today include China’s industrial added value and its retail sales of consumer goods for April, Germany and the eurozone’s gross domestic product for the first quarter, as well as the US retail sales, industrial output for April, and its weekly crude oil inventories by API and EIA.

Key Words:  Macroeconomics