Current Review (14 May)
< 1 > spot aspect. Today's steel market price is an oasis, extended yesterday's decline, the decline is generally larger than yesterday, the net green is greener. In East China, the third category of brands in Shanghai fell to 3820 yuan / ton, down 230yuan / ton since Lingaoge and Xifeng urged lining Wu Tongluo to fall), and the Hangzhou market has also dropped nearly 200yuan / ton. Volume: better than yesterday. The price of billet in Tangshan area has dropped by 20 to 3510 yuan per ton. Market mentality: due to decline, optimism in pessimism.
Phase II steel. The stock market is light green. The goods are fat and green. Black is green, iron ore breaks through a new high and turns green.
RB1910 main contract:
Within the day, following yesterday's huge increase in positions, tail positions increased to 89562 hands, within the day between 3699 and 3655 concussion fell, closing 3663. The main organization within the day clearance order 11454 hands (only Yongan organization seat clearance order 35374 hands, the total position net clearance 3026, and then step in the footsteps of Fuzhigao traitor).
HC1910 main contract:
During the day, a small increase in positions, tail positions to 5460 hands, in the day between 3629 and 3580 shock down, closing 3595. The main organization has a net increase of 2379 hands per day.
Iron ore l1909 main contract:
Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:
During the day, there was a sharp reduction in positions and tail positions to 30174 hands, which fluctuated between 2129 and 2088 during the day, with a close of 2091 at the end of the day. The main organization within the day clearance single 12437 hands.
Coking coal JM1909 main contract:
During the day, a small reduction in positions, tail reduction to 13610 hands, during the day between 1361.5 and 1332 shock downward, closing 1337. The main organization within the day clearance single 2932 hands.
Forecast for tomorrow.
1. Spot: the probability of early weakness and strong afternoon is large.
RB1910 main contract: between 3600 and 3740 concussion.
HC1910 main contract: between 3560 and 3680 concussion.
Iron ore l1909 main contract: between 636 and 670 concussion.
Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2070 and 2140 concussion.
Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1320 and 1380 concussion.
< 4 > suggestions for current operation.
1. Spot: in the case of smooth, rolling operation is appropriate; once again, into the gradual replenishment of inventory into and out of the stage. Don't worry about gain or loss.
2. Phase steel: continue to go down the space is limited, do not dance with Chi Wu riding the wall. General principle, control the position of the previous topic: when the low altitude single gradually leave the market, more and more gradually involved in the appropriate; coke, iron ore similar; coking coal wait and see.
Today, there is a sharp increase in the number of seats in Yongan institutions, which is not the leader of truth, nor is it likely to switch between empty and high frequencies. In short, the benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom.
< 5 > the words of the heart.
1. Re-recognition of steel value depression.
1.1 cost angle (including tax).
At present, the static cost of RB in blast furnace steel enterprises is about 3400, the static cost of HC in blast furnace steel enterprises is about 3500, and the average cost of RB in electric arc furnace steel enterprises is about 3750. From the point of view of supply-side reform, it is a high probability event for blast furnace steel enterprises to maintain 300yuan / ton profit before the third quarter, and the spot price of 3700 is strongly supported. From the electric arc furnace steel enterprises to re-cross the general deficit forced capacity convergence, considering the role of inertia, 3650 to 3700 yuan / ton of the same strong support. In short, RB spot price 3700 yuan / ton to 3750 yuan / ton, deposit value depression.
1.2. Steel angle.
Might as well set 3560 is the steel RB1910 contract bottom price, converted into RB spot price of about 3750 yuan / ton. What is more, the current disk profit is less than 200 yuan per ton, how much do you worry about?
2. The grounding of Sino-US trade negotiations is only the catalyst for this round of decline, and the relationship between supply and demand is not necessarily too sad! It's more of a catharsis.
3. Coke: there is a degree of price increase, too much disaster, the author predicted that the third round of price increase could not be opened, with a period of anxiety near the value of empty. The verification of the disk surface is given in the past 2 days.
4. Warm reminder:
4.1 based on regional differences, the author prospectively forecasts a decline of 300 + 30 in this round. Regardless of the region, as long as it falls into the range, it is recommended that traders in the region start replenishing inventory operations, interregional price and time asynchronous is normal.
4.2. Adjust the space-time dimension, the spatial dimension is the principle of priority.
With the words of yesterday:
1. Supply and demand.
On the supply side, I would have been focused on the bright moon; on the demand side, how could the bright moon shine on the ditch. It is becoming clear that the supply side is expanding and the demand side is converging. This round of downward trend normal stop in the electric arc furnace steel enterprises once again losses, inverted force electric arc furnace capacity contraction.
2. The trade between China and the United States has a greater impact on the hot roll than the thread.
3. In order to solve the contradiction of the current basis difference, the author tends to rely on the spot forward steel is a high probability event.
The downward space of the steel is limited, the supporting factors: the demand toughness is OK, the cost support force is strong (the author has analyzed it N times, and will not repeat it).
4. The offshore exchange rate of RMB exceeded 6.9, helping iron ore.
The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. See the weekly review for details.
Note: due to personal reasons, I apologize for the uncertain absence of the article this week! Excuse me!
Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781