SMM News: the global market returned to chaos on Monday, rising risk aversion helped international gold break through the 1300 mark, while international oil prices fell under pressure under double whammy. The OPEC monthly report released tonight is another important test of international oil prices.
International gold recovered 1300 pass, the United States, cloth two oil have fallen under pressure. Driven by risk aversion, gold prices emerged from the downturn on Monday, rising to a nearly four-month high in intraday trading and recording their highest close since April 10. The latest data show that the gold futures price for June delivery on the New York Stock Exchange closed up 1.1% in the day, the biggest increase in major contracts since February 19. Hedge funds and other large speculators have also seen a significant increase in long positions in gold futures and options in the United States. On the oil side, although the attack on oil tankers heightened concerns about supply problems, the United States and Brazzaville fell sharply on Monday as risk aversion was dominating the market.
A number of Fed officials spoke to interpret the current situation of the US economy. Clarida, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in a public statement that US inflation is currently near the 2 per cent target and that the economy is close to or in the dual target of the Federal Reserve. However, according to a survey of consumer expectations released by the New York Fed on Monday, public expectations of future price increases have fallen to their lowest level since 2017. Boston Fed Chairman Rosengren said that the current economic situation is expected to have a moderate impact on US inflation and GDP growth, September is the time for the Fed to end the contraction, but that could change as a result of new information.
Affected by the economic situation and risk aversion sentiment, US Treasury yields continued to fall, and key US Treasury yields were once again upside down. As of Monday, the yield on the five-year Treasury note fell further to 3.49%, the yield on the 10-year note fell 2.54%, the yield on the 30-year note fell 1.44%, and the yield on the longer-dated Treasury note fell to a six-week low. Morgan Stanley pointed out that unless the Fed has more dovish language, risky assets will continue to be subject to selling pressure in the current economic situation.
4 awkward scene! The survey shows that big US companies do not support Trump's proposal to cut interest rates. The chief financial officers of large US companies disagree with Mr Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates by 1 per cent, according to the latest CNBC survey. More than 69 per cent of corporate CFO believes current interest rates are broadly in the right range, but they think the Fed is also likely to cut rates by the end of the year.
5 follow-up to the attack on the tanker: the US Department of Energy said it had little impact, and Iran said it was very concerned. Saudi Energy Minister Faleh said on Monday that although two Saudi ships were deliberately attacked near the United Arab Emirates, fortunately there were no oil spills or casualties. On the other hand, before the attack, one of the ships had sailed out of the port of Rastanula carrying crude oil to Saudi Aramco's customers in the United States. Faleh believes that the international community has a responsibility to protect maritime navigation and the safety of oil tankers. Saudi diplomats said they supported the United Arab Emirates in dealing with the destruction of oil tankers near Fuchayla.
6. Russia's GDP growth rate fell in the first quarter, and key economic indicators worsened. The April economic situation report released by Russia's Ministry of Economic Development showed that GDP growth fell to 0.8 percent in the first quarter, and relevant officials said that the value-added tax rate increased and domestic demand was insufficient, especially the sharp decline in actual sales of retail and service industries. Is a key drag on economic growth.
7 the latest progress in Brexit: no breakthrough has been made in the talks, and the differences between the two parties remain serious. A British government spokesman said the Brexit dialogue with Labour had taken stock of a range of issues, but no key progress had been made. As many as 150 Labour MPs will oppose a new agreement that does not include confirmation of the referendum, according to Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit minister. Jordan Rochester, global foreign exchange strategist at Nomura, points out that the prospect of Brexit is unclear and sterling trading will not be as special as it used to be, making it difficult to hold sterling positions. Profit taking against the euro against sterling is recommended in order to find a better entry point when volatility is eliminated.
8 Japanese officials say the country's economic situation is showing signs of deterioration for the first time since January 2013, with national debt hitting new highs for the third year in a row. As of March 2019, Japan's "national debt", including government bonds and loans, had reached 1103.3543 trillion yen, an increase of 15.5414 trillion yen over 2017, according to data released by Japan's Ministry of Finance. The huge debt has become a major burden on Japan's economic development.
[risk early warning]
OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report tonight, and it is difficult to predict the misfortune of international oil prices. Recently, with the continuous turmoil in the international oil market, reports on hot events such as US sanctions against Iraq, Russian crude oil pollution and the attack on oil tankers have emerged one after another, and the warming of risk aversion has also brought greater uncertainty to oil prices. In this context, OPEC's monthly market report is an important basis for investors to understand the international oil market and judge the trend of oil prices in the next stage, which is expected to have a significant short-term impact on oil prices.