20190513: Sino-US trade negotiations are not as expected, the black market is weak

In terms of volume and price, RB1910 fell 55 yuan / ton to close at 3691 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, while HC1910 closed down 71 yuan / ton at 3611 yuan / ton. I1909 closed down 2 yuan per ton to close at 653.5 yuan per ton, while J1909 closed down 40.5 yuan per ton at 2126.5 yuan per ton. In terms of position data, the number of RB1910 transactions increased by 126000 to 2.44 million, while that of I1909 increased by 1.99 million and increased by 31000 to 1.45 million. In terms of capital flows, the net inflow of funds from RB1910 today was 269 million yuan. I1909 net inflow of capital was 140 million yuan. Viewpoint: shock is weak. The 11th round of Sino-US economic and trade talks, which were widely watched by the market, ended on Saturday, but the two sides have yet to agree on trade frictions, following an increase in tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to the US from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on Friday. The US further threatened to start a 25 per cent tax on the remaining $325 billion of Chinese exports to the US, and announced the list today, with a significant rise in the VIX panic index. As a result, the financial markets are weak today. Cotton futures closed down the limit, RB1910 rose briefly on Friday, was blocked back down, today continued the downward trend of shock. SMM survey data show that in May, 31 mainstream building materials steel plants plan to increase their production of rebar by 235300 tons over the previous month, and the output of steel mills remains high, although non-heating season production restrictions are still in place in some areas this month. However, from the environmental protection supervision "looking back" special supervision and inspection, Hubei, Hunan, Shanxi and other seven provinces and cities still have a lot of rectification and reform is not in place; On the demand side, there have been signs of seasonal weakness, with the average daily trading volume of building materials falling by 2000 tons, or 1.2 percent, last week compared with the previous week. China's April car data released today also fell short of expectations, with car sales falling 12.1 per cent from January to April from a year earlier. Last week, the more strong coke prices also fell sharply today, there is also a certain crackdown on market confidence. It is expected that the concussion of short-term thread and hot coil is weak, but the trend of raw material is good, and it will still be stronger than that of mature wood. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3600, 3760); I1909 contract range (630680), thread, hot coil empty single holding. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.