With the introduction of photovoltaic document No. 223, there is basically no subsidized ground photovoltaic index and distributed photovoltaic space after 531. The only new projects left with subsidies are the previous indicators that have been connected to the grid in the second half of the year. After several years of rapid development, the photovoltaic industry has come to the crossroads of subsidies.
Many worry that if there are no subsidies, there will be a cliff-like decline in new installations. The author believes that if the policy, equipment costs and other appropriate cooperation, this situation will not occur. Only with the decrease of installation cost can the normal development of non-subsidy projects be realized. At this stage, photovoltaic installation cost has two parts: technical cost and non-technical cost. The decline of technology costs depends on the technological innovation and progress of enterprises, rather than the decline of technology costs can only rely on the policies of governments at all levels.
No matter what the circumstances, enterprises will continue to promote the decline of technology costs in order to obtain market opportunities. Therefore, the key to the photovoltaic non-subsidy model is whether the supporting policies of the government can adapt to the latest stage of market development.
Many people think that without subsidies, they can build at will. As things stand, not exactly. The reply of the National Energy Administration to the development and construction of Dongying photovoltaic power generation project without state subsidies is as follows: "Local governments are encouraged to introduce policies to support the development of the photovoltaic industry in accordance with their own actual conditions. Arrange all kinds of photovoltaic power generation projects that do not need state subsidies according to the grid acceptance conditions and related requirements. From the point of view of expression, the state no longer rigidly stipulates how to carry out unsubsidized projects, and fully devolves power to local governments to organize the implementation and management of unsubsidized projects.
From the perspective of local governments, continued support for the development of renewable energy is the future trend. Local governments have two layers of pressure on energy development: first, projects that have been installed should solve the problem of consumption, and the second is to ensure the additional installed capacity in order to complete the task of renewable energy quota system and energy transformation.
For most of the "three north" provinces, the problem of power restrictions will not allow the National Energy Administration to agree to new renewable energy generation projects until the problem is resolved. For the central and eastern provinces, such as temporary unlimited electrical pressure, the central and eastern provinces have higher land prices, how to better achieve comprehensive land use, but also as much as possible to develop local photovoltaic power supply, is the key to test the local government.
Since the supporting policy of unsubsidized photovoltaic projects is the key, the key factors of parity and the much-needed policies of the market are particularly critical.
Cost of land or installed area
Unlike other costs, land and other costs are gradually rising with economic development. At present, the land index in the eastern region is tight, only the use of fish ponds, general agricultural land and other agricultural photovoltaic comprehensive development projects, such as fishing light complementary, agricultural light complementary and other agricultural photovoltaic comprehensive development projects, agriculture and photovoltaic bear half of the land rent. Usually half the price of land rent is 500 yuan ~ 1000 yuan / mu per year. For large front-runner bases, the source of land is coordinated by the government, there are coal mining subsidence areas, fish ponds, and so on, these lands are not free to use, especially the third group of leaders in the late part of the base increased the land cost, more than 1000 yuan per mu per year.
For investment enterprises, the greater pressure is the way to pay land rent. Some require a one-off payment of five years, the remaining annual payment is reasonable; in some areas, a one-time payment of 20 years of land rent has a greater impact on the cost of the project. Take the 100MW photovoltaic project as an example, Nongguang complementary covers an area of 6000 mu, if according to 500 yuan / year / mu one-time payment for 20 years, only a land rent will have to pay 60 million. For the photovoltaic project of 100MW, the price of EPC is between 4 yuan and 4.2 yuan. Generally speaking, the land rent has accounted for 8% of the total cost.
The land rent in the western region is cheaper than that in the eastern region, but land taxes and land expropriation, which is difficult to deal with, also perplexed most photovoltaic enterprises. In Inner Mongolia, a 100000 kilowatt ground photovoltaic power station occupies arable land, generally requires a one-time payment of 40 million yuan in cultivated land occupation tax, 8 million yuan in annual land use tax, calculated to have a total of 200 million yuan in taxes and fees over the past 20 years.
What is even more distressing to the development enterprises is that many taxes and fees are settled after autumn, and many areas begin to recover taxes and fees after three years of operation of the power station. At this time, the investment has been locked in, and the sudden increase in costs is bound to affect the rate of return at a later stage. If I had known that I had to pay so much tax in the first place, I might not have invested in the project.
In the future, in the post-subsidy era, if you want to continue to maintain the rate of return on the project, you must explicitly reduce the cost of land. On the one hand, the local government should maintain the coherence and transparency of the local policy, do not settle accounts after autumn and coordinate the land with lower cost as the land for power station development as far as possible. At present, the cost of equipment is declining, and the power station will provide a large amount of taxable income after enjoying the VAT deduction, which will be more helpful to the local finance.
Requirements and indicators for grid connection
The difficulty of connecting to the grid has always been a bottleneck in the development of renewable energy, and the reasons are complicated without more description here. Just as the power grid allows, the cost of connecting to the grid is also very high. According to the person in charge of the construction of a 1 million kilowatt photovoltaic power station built in Qinghai, the power station has invested hundreds of millions of yuan to build a 330kV boost station at the same time. About 50 million yuan has been invested in the construction of a group of 45 km and 12 km 330kV transmission lines, and will be responsible for the operation and maintenance of these transmission facilities.
According to industry statistics, in recent years, the domestic photovoltaic power station self-built transmission facilities assets by the power grid enterprises buyback ratio is not more than 5%. Therefore, in May 2018, the National Energy Administration issued the Circular on matters related to reducing the burden on Enterprises in the Field of Renewable Energy, which clearly states that all kinds of renewable energy power generation projects connected to the transmission grid are connected to the power grid, as well as transmission and distribution projects. All of them are invested and built by local power grid enterprises to ensure that supporting power grid projects and projects are put into operation at the same time. Therefore, the electric energy metering devices of renewable energy power generation projects and the communication facilities for transmitting information to power grid enterprises are funded and installed by power grid enterprises. And before the relevant power transmission and distribution projects are built by renewable energy generation project units, the power grid enterprises will complete the buyback by the end of 2018 according to the agreement or the investment confirmed by the third party evaluation.
This policy is also an effort made by the National Energy Administration to solve the difficult and expensive connection of the Internet, but it remains to be seen whether it can be fully implemented.
Free Trading and tariff settlement in electricity Market
In the circumstances of subsidies, ground power station investment enterprises do not have to bear the risk of electricity price fluctuations and collection of electricity charges, only one trading party is the power grid, the power grid is a high credit trading side, we are very comfortable with the settlement of electricity charges. But after the subsidy, there are two ways out of the power station, one is to get full access to the network can only get desulphurization out-of-stock thermal power price, the other is to sell electricity freely to customers with high electricity price. The first model is mainly based on the development of large bases, which requires a large number of large-scale land, so the second model is more feasible for the central and eastern regions.
If it is the second model, there will be the problem of how to sell electricity across the wall and collect electricity charges. According to the current situation of distributed development, the power grid is still not allowed to sell electricity across walls, which greatly reduces the development space of distributed photovoltaic.
In December 2017, the National Energy Administration also issued the Circular on pilot distributed Generation Market transactions, encouraging conditional local pilot distributed market transactions. It is clear that the provincial government calculates the cross-subsidy and the charging standard of the network fee, the power grid can collect the electricity charge on behalf of the provincial government, and completely solve the two biggest obstacles of distribution. Some provinces have already carried out preliminary work, and pilot projects are expected to land by the end of this year.
In the energy bureau's reply to Dongying, it is also mentioned that as long as local governments have the conditions to carry out such pilot projects, they can carry out distributed market-oriented transactions. Next, there is an urgent need for local governments to take the lead in local prices, power grid, electricity users and so on to carry out such distributed market-oriented transactions, so as to provide more choices for power users and achieve the goal of electricity reform.
Subsidies for renewable energy have been provided from the outset in order to eliminate the need for subsidies for renewable energy in the future, a goal that has been achieved in some countries. As a large photovoltaic manufacturing country, it is very unfair for China to be trapped by invisible costs, which makes photovoltaic unable to access the Internet cheaply. Since the reform of the electricity market system wants to restore the commodity attribute of electricity, then the market should be allowed to have more diverse choices, the invisible cost should be made public, so that photovoltaic can better participate in the electricity market and bring green electricity to users.
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