With the increasing uncertainty of the external environment, the future trend of monetary policy has become the focus of market attention. A few days ago, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the people's Bank of China, made it clear that in the face of changes in the internal and external economic environment, China's monetary policy has sufficient space to deal with it, has a rich monetary policy toolbox, and is fully capable of dealing with all kinds of internal and external uncertainties.
At a media briefing held by the Central Bank a few days ago, Sun Guofeng said that if we look back at the situation since the beginning of this year, we will also face many challenges at the beginning of the year, but under the leadership of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, The counter-cyclical adjustment of prudent monetary policy has achieved very positive results, the risk of credit contraction has been significantly alleviated, market confidence has been boosted, and social expectations have been reversed. It has played an important role in promoting the virtuous circle of the financial and real economy and realizing a smooth start to the national economy.
He said that the people's Bank of China will continue to implement a sound policy in the next step. In terms of total quantity, we should maintain a moderate degree of tightness, properly adjust the general gate of the money supply, adjust and fine-tune it in time according to changes in economic growth and price situation, and grasp the degree of regulation and control. Maintain M2 and social financing scale growth rate to match the nominal GDP growth rate to meet the needs of economic operation in a reasonable range. We should further optimize the structure, promote financial supply-side structural reform, give full play to the directional guiding role of monetary policy, and make good use of all kinds of structural tools, such as targeted medium-term lending convenience, relending, rediscount, and so on. Guide financial institutions to accurately and effectively support the real economy, especially private enterprises and small and micro enterprises.
As a more valuable "benchmark" indicator for market observation of liquidity tightness, the interbank seven-day pledge repurchase rate (DR007) has recently been linked upside down to the seven-day reverse repo rate for many days in a row. The interbank offered rate at the Bank of Shanghai (11.790,0.19, 1.64%) has also been falling since mid-April.
Referring to the recent fluctuations in capital interest rates, Sun Guofeng believes that interest rate fluctuations in the money market at a single point in time do not reflect the overall liquidity of the banking system. It is common for money market interest rates to rise at the end of the month and fall at the beginning of the month. The main reason is that the concentrated fiscal expenditure at the end of the month will push up the total amount of liquidity, but the demand for liquidity in the banking system will also rise at the end of the month, so the level of interest rates in the money market will rise. But by early next month, total liquidity will still be high, and demand for liquidity in the banking system will fall, so money market interest rates will fall.
"overall, money market interest rates are running smoothly. It is important to note that the judgment of the financial position should be based on the overall trend and level of market interest rates over a period of time, rather than paying too much attention to interest rate fluctuations at a single point in time. " Sun Guofeng said: the central bank will rationally match all kinds of monetary policy tools, flexibly carry out open market operations, regulate liquidity boundaries, and guide the smooth operation of money market interest rates within a reasonable range.
Some institutions predict that the current monetary policy has entered an observation period, will be more based on macroeconomic changes in the discretionary adjustment, "total stability, structural easing" will become the main tone of monetary policy in the future. The deputy director of Citic Securities (20.640,0.864.35%) clearly believes that the central bank may carry out more than expected monetary policy operations; Second, structural easing may still be the main theme of monetary policy in the near future, so further monetary policy operations by the central bank can support a certain rate of social and financial growth.