Aluminium billet stocks grow as buyers remain cautious

[SMM analysis: The high abroad and low domestic aluminium prices drove the export volume of domestic unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis increasing significantly YoY in March] Since August 2021, China's unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis exports have increased significantly YoY, and reached a record high in the first quarter of this year. According to the short-term forecast, aluminium prices at home and abroad will fell in April, but the pattern of high abroad aluminium prices and low domestic aluminium prices will remain, and the domestic aluminium exports will remain high. However, since March, the domestic pandemic interfered with the operation and transportation of domestic aluminium processing enterprises, and ports in Shanghai and other regions were severely blocked.

Aluminium prices retreated 25% as of October 29, the biggest of correction in a week since 10 years ago. Its decline slowed in early November. The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract stood at 20095 yuan/mt today.

SHFE nonferrous metals all went up today, amid the dovish statement by the European Central Bank president, the high US jobless claims, and the high July PMI in Eurozone.

SMM data showed that aluminium billet stocks across the five major consumption areas — Foshan, Wuxi, Huzhou, Changzhou and Nanchang — in China decreased 0.9% or 1,200 mt from a week ago to 119,600 mt as of Thursday July 22.

Shanghai base metals all cruised higher on Friday morning after the head of the Federal Reserve told Congress he saw no need to rush the shift towards tighter post-pandemic monetary policy. Meanwhile, their counterparts on the LME mostly cruised lower.

Shanghai base metals were mostly higher on Monday morning as investors digested a better-than-expected US jobs report. Meanwhile, their counterparts on the LME fell for the most part.

Shanghai base metals mostly cruised lower on Tuesday morning despite gains overnight on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touching fresh record closing highs. Meanwhile, their counterparts on the LME traded mixed.

SMM data showed that aluminium billet stocks across the five major consumption areas — Foshan, Wuxi, Huzhou, Changzhou and Nanchang — in China increased 14% or 12,400 mt from a week ago to 100,700 mt as of Thursday June 17.

Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas remained unchanged from a week ago and stood at 9,700 mt as of June 11, showed SMM data.

Social inventories of lead ingots across Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Tianjin rose 3,300 mt from last Friday May 21 to 93,900 mt as of Monday May 24, an SMM survey showed. The stocks were up 8,000 mt from last Monday May 17, reaching a high level since May 2015.