SMM News: gold prices jumped after hitting an intraday low on Friday, with bulls rising in a straight line, returning to the $1280 / oz mark. The dollar fell, with the dollar index hitting as low as 97.48, still running below the 98 mark. Analysis said that the release of non-agricultural data led to a short-term decline in gold, but then a strong rebound, for gold means short-selling, short selling pressure has dried up, gold has reversed the trend, soaring. Looking forward to next week, Britain and the United States will release blockbuster data, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will make another speech, Sino-US trade negotiations will attack again, investors should focus on it.
Next week (May 06 to May 10) related reminder: Australia, New Zealand Federal Reserve statement to attack the UK and the United States hit the "Life Gate"
1. The Australian and New Zealand Federal Reserve announced an attack in May.
The RBA will announce its May interest rate decision at 12:30 Beijing time next Tuesday and its monetary policy statement at 09:30 on Friday. The current concern for the market is that the RBA abandoned the idea of further tightening at its policy meeting in April, giving a clear signal that it would consider cutting interest rates if inflation fell and unemployment rose. So will the RBA cut interest rates at its May meeting? In addition to the RBA, the New Zealand Fed will also announce a May interest rate decision and a monetary policy statement at 10:00 Beijing time next Wednesday.
2. Powell made another speech when Britain and the United States attacked him again.
3. The 11th round of trade negotiations between China and the United States opened as planned on the 8th.
The 11th round of high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States will be held in Washington next week as planned, Xinhua reported on the 1st of this month. The market pays close attention to whether the two major economies can reach an agreement as soon as possible, and it is still important to keep an eye on the progress. In addition, the Japanese region will return next week after a 10-day holiday, and the opening of the Japanese market is expected to add activity to financial markets. The Bank of Japan will also release the minutes of the meeting next Wednesday.
On the technical side of the short cycle, the renewed support of the non-agricultural gold price of $1266 an ounce twice on Friday is destined to play a key role in supporting the weak pattern. At the same time, resistance to change after $1278 / oz was broken as support for two tests in three sets last week was stabilized again, with $1278 / oz returning to support. So Monday's session was more likely to move upward with a shock of $1278 an ounce, while the top focus was still on the $1290 / oz position, and if the market steadied above $1290 / oz, the market was more likely to fluctuate higher than $1290 / oz on Monday, while the focus was still on the $1290 / oz position. The rebound will also re-test the $1300 / oz barrier and the $1310 / oz rise and fall point in early trading.
To sum up: non-agricultural gold rebounded strongly after twice falling $1266 / oz on Friday, and the support of $1278 / oz on Monday was still valid, so it rose by relying on $1278 / oz at the beginning of the week. Above, focus on the resistance of $1290 per ounce as the dividing line between strong and weak.
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