[SMM Building Materials Analysis] Thread week carding: "May Day short holiday" approaching, spot price high consolidation-Shanghai Metals Market

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[SMM Building Materials Analysis] Thread week carding: "May Day short holiday" approaching, spot price high consolidation

Translation 08:06:55PM Apr 26, 2019 Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[review and Prospect]:

[fundamentals]

1. Supply side: profits continue to climb and production is likely to rise again.

According to SMM data, since April, the thread production profit of the long process Steel Plant has been rising, reaching 841 yuan / ton as of April 26, (the profit on April 1 was 654.23 yuan / ton, up nearly 200 yuan / ton during the period). Under the strong pull of the profit growth, the thread supply has been released continuously, and now it has reached the high level after a year. In addition, the maintenance of the major steel mills has been completed one after another, and the thread output is expected to continue to grow in May.

2. Demand side:

According to SMM downstream research feedback, in addition to home appliances and automotive industries, machinery, construction, shipbuilding and transportation and other industries still have good demand, most companies said that production and sales in April were better than in March. Of which:

Enterprise A (Machinery): the production and order condition is better than last month, the purchase quantity has the plan to increase, but the steel mill does not allocate enough output, resulting in the failure to deliver the goods on time, there is a backlog. The purchase price is also higher than last month. At present, raw material stocks are at an all-time high of more than 20,000 tons, and prices are expected to remain high in May, supported by demand.

Enterprise B (traffic): due to the better weather, conducive to construction, the working face has been opened, the construction area has increased, the output has naturally increased, the order has remained stable, and the order will remain stable for at least half a year.

Enterprise C (Shipbuilding): production is busier than last month, mainly due to an increase in small orders. Overall orders are flat because there are fewer orders for medium and large specifications. Mainly look at the tonnage to consider the market, no matter how many small specifications, no increase in large specifications is also very limited. I didn't do any shopping this month. I want to wait until the middle of May before I buy it. Inventories are now low and should be replenished by May, when raw material prices are expected to fall in mid-May.

Enterprise D (car): the orders in the past two months are not very good. They began to get worse after the Spring Festival. The passenger traffic has become less and less. Now the traffic is convenient, fewer and fewer people take buses, and now there are only exits. However, exports are only 30 to 60 cars a month, and the pieces they want are not complete vehicles. Current procurement reduction

[inventory]

This week, under the influence of pre-festival replenishment demand, the support of fundamentals is still there, and the total inventory of rebar continues to decline. But it is worth noting that the rate of decline began to slow sharply this week, especially since the rate of decline was significantly narrower than last week (down 3.4 per cent to 4.4 per cent from 7.8 per cent last week).

Total inventory: this week's thread stock is 8.5477 million tons, down 395400 tons from last week, a month-on-month ratio of-4.4 per cent. Compared with the same period last year, current inventories are lower than 485000 tons in the same period last year, or-5.4 per cent year-on-year.

Social inventory: 6.62 million tons of screw thread this week, down 343000 tons from 696.3 last week, a month-on-month ratio of-4.9 per cent. Compared with the same period last year, it was 6.823 million tons, down 3 per cent from the same period last year. According to SMM research, under the pressure of high prices in steel mills, the procurement costs of traders are rising, some of the markets are hanging upside down, and the willingness to ship is not strong.

In-plant inventory: this week thread factory warehouse 1.928 million tons, down 52000 tons from last week, month-on-month-2.6%, down 12.7% from the same period last year.

[macro and policy aspects]

In order to encourage the professional and large-scale development of pollution prevention and control enterprises, and better support the construction of ecological civilization, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments have jointly issued a notice to make it clear that eligible pollution prevention and control enterprises will be levied at a 15% income tax rate. The time limit for the implementation of the announcement shall be from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2021.

2. The standing Committee of the National people's Congress deliberates the 2018 Environmental Protection report: the situation of Ecological Environmental Protection is still grim

Recently, the 10th meeting of the standing Committee of the 13th National people's Congress heard the "report of the State Council on the state of the environment and the achievement of environmental protection goals in 2018." Li Ganjie, minister of ecological environment entrusted by the State Council, said that the situation of ecological environment protection in China is still grim, and there are multiple challenges in fighting against pollution. In order to ensure the achievement of the annual goals, the State Council and relevant departments will actively promote high-quality economic development, resolutely fight the iconic battle of tackling key problems in pollution prevention and control, and make winning the battle of defending the blue sky a top priority. Highlight key areas, key indicators, key periods, key areas of prevention and control.

3. Investigation and rectification of local illegal construction villas by the Ministry of Housing and Construction

The Ministry of Housing and Urban and Rural Development recently issued a notice requiring local governments to sort out villa projects since 2003 and report the inventory and rectification of villas in violation of regulations. The Housing and Construction Department of Fujian Province forwarded the notice of the Ministry of Housing and Construction to all prefectures and cities in the province, demanding that the examination and approval procedures for the construction of relevant villa projects in their respective administrative areas be suspended immediately, and that the villa projects that have been built, approved, pending and pending approval be combed.

[summary of major events]

1. The second "Belt and Road Initiative" International Cooperation Summit Forum was held in Beijing from April 25 to 27.

On 22 April, the Office of the leading Group for promoting the Construction of "Belt and Road Initiative" issued the "Progress, contribution and Prospect of the" Belt and Road Initiative "Initiative. The report pointed out that from 2013 to 2018, Chinese enterprises have invested more than US $90 billion in countries along the route, with a turnover of more than US $400 billion in contracted projects in countries along the route, and more than US $40 billion in direct investment from countries along the route. Italy, Luxembourg, Switzerland and other countries have also officially announced their accession recently, which means that the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind advocated by the "Belt and Road Initiative" initiative has been widely accepted by the international community. The initiative is also becoming an important practical platform for building a community with a shared future for mankind, and has a positive effect on helping the global economy to deal with uncertainty.

2. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: deepening the removal of production capacity in key industries and strictly implementing the policy of capacity replacement

Huang Libin, spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and director of the Bureau of Operation Monitoring and Coordination, said that new production capacity of steel and flat glass is strictly prohibited, new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is strictly controlled, and violations of iron and steel production capacity are resolutely cracked down on. In the first quarter, the added value of the raw materials industry increased by 7.1 percent, an increase of 3.6 percentage points over the same period last year, and the capacity utilization rate of the iron and steel industry reached 79.2 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the same period last year.

3. Zhengzhou Urban Rail Transit Phase III Construction Plan (2019-2024) approved by the National Development and Reform Commission

In order to implement the development strategy of the Central Plains urban agglomeration, support the spatial structure layout of Zhengzhou metropolitan area, alleviate urban traffic congestion, and improve the level of urban public transport services, Zhengzhou Urban Rail Transit Phase III construction plan, Seven projects, including the second phase of the construction of Line 3, the first phase of Line 6, the first phase of Line 7, the first phase of Line 8, the first phase of Line 10, the first phase of Line 12, and the first phase of Line 14, have been approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. It is reported that the project planning period is 2019-2024. The total investment is 113.893 billion yuan.

4. Zhengzhou Iron and Steel and other industries will be exempted from off-peak production by the end of October to meet the standard of ultra-low emissions.

The deep treatment of industrial enterprises includes the construction of demonstration project of ultra-low emission of flue gas and the construction of deep treatment project of unorganized emission. Among them, the construction scope of flue gas ultra-low emission demonstration project is electric power, iron and steel, cement (including grinding station), non-ferrous metals, carbon, ceramics, brick kiln, refractory, casting, lime manufacturing, abrasive tools and other key air pollution emission industries. The construction scope of the unorganized emission depth control project is all industrial enterprises in the city. Enterprises (sections) that have completed the construction standard of the demonstration project for ultra-low emission of flue gas and the depth control standard of unorganized emission by the end of October 2019, and which have been checked and accepted by the relevant departments, will be exempted from off-peak production in autumn and winter. Downgrade or no longer control in the emergency control of heavily polluted weather. At the same time, we should make full use of the special funds for the development of advanced manufacturing industry in provinces and cities, and give financial support to the relevant enterprises.

5. Tangshan extends Class II Emergency response to heavily polluted Weather until April 30

According to the latest meeting between the Provincial Environmental Emergency and heavy pollution Weather early warning Center, the China Environmental Monitoring General Station and the Provincial Environmental Meteorological Center, Tangshan was affected by the southerly wind from April 26 to April 30, and the humidity was higher and the wind was lower. The diffusion conditions are unfavorable as a whole. The municipal heavy pollution weather response headquarters decided to postpone the lifting time of the city's class II emergency response to heavily polluted weather, which was launched on April 20, from 24:00 on April 25 to 24:00 on April 30.

Specific measures: within the Huancheng Road in the downtown area and in the urban areas of each county (city), from 7: 00 to 20:00 from Monday to Friday, the traffic restrictions will be restricted by a group of rotation at the end of the two license plates. Restrict the passage of 20% of non-operating small (light, micro) vehicles (including local temporary license plates, excluding foreign license plates), the traffic restriction grouping is consistent with Beijing, and the last number is the last number. Traffic is not restricted on statutory holidays and public holidays. No traffic no. 4 and 9 on April 26, no traffic restrictions on April 27 and 28, no. 5 and 0 on April 29, and no. 1 and 6 on April 30. Other emergency emission reduction measures shall be implemented in accordance with the Circular on the initiation of Class II Emergency response to heavily polluted Weather issued by the Municipal Government on 19 April.

6. From April 29 to May 4, China and Russia will hold joint military exercises in Qingdao.

The International military Cooperation Office of the Ministry of National Defense announced that the Chinese and Russian navies will hold a joint military exercise codenamed "Joint Maritime-2019" from April 29 to May 4 in the sea and airspace near Qingdao, Shandong Province, China. The subject of the joint maritime performance is "Joint Defense Operations at Sea." China and Russia sent a total of 2 submarines, 13 surface vessels, 7 fixed-wing aircraft, 4 helicopters and 80 Marines to participate in the performance. The exercise is divided into three stages: the planning and preparation of joint operations, the implementation of joint operations at sea, and the conclusion of the exercise.

7. Zhejiang Province issued and implemented the Emergency Plan for heavy pollution Weather in Zhejiang Province on March 29.

The "plan" requires that iron and steel enterprises: stop or limit production in sintering, pelletizing and other processes, strengthen unorganized waste gas treatment and material yard moisturizing and dust suppression, reduce the frequency of incoming and outgoing transport vehicles, and increase the frequency of road cleaning in the factory area; Cement enterprises: wrong peak production or stop production, cement grinding station stop production, strengthen material yard dust control, reduce the frequency of transport vehicles in and out of the factory, increase the frequency of road cleaning in the factory area.

Price

more
62% Fe Fines (Qingdao Port): IOPI62
Nov.13
645.0
-2.0
(-0.31%)
62% Fe Fines (Qingdao Port, CFR Equiv.)
Nov.13
84.8
-0.3
(-0.38%)
58% Fe Fines (Qingdao Port): IOPI58
Nov.13
541.0
-2.0
(-0.37%)
58% Fe Fines (Qingdao Port, CFR Equiv.)
Nov.13
71.2
-0.3
(-0.45%)
65% Fe Fines (Qingdao Port): IOPI65
Nov.13
697.0
1.0
(0.14%)

[SMM Building Materials Analysis] Thread week carding: "May Day short holiday" approaching, spot price high consolidation

Translation 08:06:55PM Apr 26, 2019 Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[review and Prospect]:

[fundamentals]

1. Supply side: profits continue to climb and production is likely to rise again.

According to SMM data, since April, the thread production profit of the long process Steel Plant has been rising, reaching 841 yuan / ton as of April 26, (the profit on April 1 was 654.23 yuan / ton, up nearly 200 yuan / ton during the period). Under the strong pull of the profit growth, the thread supply has been released continuously, and now it has reached the high level after a year. In addition, the maintenance of the major steel mills has been completed one after another, and the thread output is expected to continue to grow in May.

2. Demand side:

According to SMM downstream research feedback, in addition to home appliances and automotive industries, machinery, construction, shipbuilding and transportation and other industries still have good demand, most companies said that production and sales in April were better than in March. Of which:

Enterprise A (Machinery): the production and order condition is better than last month, the purchase quantity has the plan to increase, but the steel mill does not allocate enough output, resulting in the failure to deliver the goods on time, there is a backlog. The purchase price is also higher than last month. At present, raw material stocks are at an all-time high of more than 20,000 tons, and prices are expected to remain high in May, supported by demand.

Enterprise B (traffic): due to the better weather, conducive to construction, the working face has been opened, the construction area has increased, the output has naturally increased, the order has remained stable, and the order will remain stable for at least half a year.

Enterprise C (Shipbuilding): production is busier than last month, mainly due to an increase in small orders. Overall orders are flat because there are fewer orders for medium and large specifications. Mainly look at the tonnage to consider the market, no matter how many small specifications, no increase in large specifications is also very limited. I didn't do any shopping this month. I want to wait until the middle of May before I buy it. Inventories are now low and should be replenished by May, when raw material prices are expected to fall in mid-May.

Enterprise D (car): the orders in the past two months are not very good. They began to get worse after the Spring Festival. The passenger traffic has become less and less. Now the traffic is convenient, fewer and fewer people take buses, and now there are only exits. However, exports are only 30 to 60 cars a month, and the pieces they want are not complete vehicles. Current procurement reduction

[inventory]

This week, under the influence of pre-festival replenishment demand, the support of fundamentals is still there, and the total inventory of rebar continues to decline. But it is worth noting that the rate of decline began to slow sharply this week, especially since the rate of decline was significantly narrower than last week (down 3.4 per cent to 4.4 per cent from 7.8 per cent last week).

Total inventory: this week's thread stock is 8.5477 million tons, down 395400 tons from last week, a month-on-month ratio of-4.4 per cent. Compared with the same period last year, current inventories are lower than 485000 tons in the same period last year, or-5.4 per cent year-on-year.

Social inventory: 6.62 million tons of screw thread this week, down 343000 tons from 696.3 last week, a month-on-month ratio of-4.9 per cent. Compared with the same period last year, it was 6.823 million tons, down 3 per cent from the same period last year. According to SMM research, under the pressure of high prices in steel mills, the procurement costs of traders are rising, some of the markets are hanging upside down, and the willingness to ship is not strong.

In-plant inventory: this week thread factory warehouse 1.928 million tons, down 52000 tons from last week, month-on-month-2.6%, down 12.7% from the same period last year.

[macro and policy aspects]

In order to encourage the professional and large-scale development of pollution prevention and control enterprises, and better support the construction of ecological civilization, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments have jointly issued a notice to make it clear that eligible pollution prevention and control enterprises will be levied at a 15% income tax rate. The time limit for the implementation of the announcement shall be from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2021.

2. The standing Committee of the National people's Congress deliberates the 2018 Environmental Protection report: the situation of Ecological Environmental Protection is still grim

Recently, the 10th meeting of the standing Committee of the 13th National people's Congress heard the "report of the State Council on the state of the environment and the achievement of environmental protection goals in 2018." Li Ganjie, minister of ecological environment entrusted by the State Council, said that the situation of ecological environment protection in China is still grim, and there are multiple challenges in fighting against pollution. In order to ensure the achievement of the annual goals, the State Council and relevant departments will actively promote high-quality economic development, resolutely fight the iconic battle of tackling key problems in pollution prevention and control, and make winning the battle of defending the blue sky a top priority. Highlight key areas, key indicators, key periods, key areas of prevention and control.

3. Investigation and rectification of local illegal construction villas by the Ministry of Housing and Construction

The Ministry of Housing and Urban and Rural Development recently issued a notice requiring local governments to sort out villa projects since 2003 and report the inventory and rectification of villas in violation of regulations. The Housing and Construction Department of Fujian Province forwarded the notice of the Ministry of Housing and Construction to all prefectures and cities in the province, demanding that the examination and approval procedures for the construction of relevant villa projects in their respective administrative areas be suspended immediately, and that the villa projects that have been built, approved, pending and pending approval be combed.

[summary of major events]

1. The second "Belt and Road Initiative" International Cooperation Summit Forum was held in Beijing from April 25 to 27.

On 22 April, the Office of the leading Group for promoting the Construction of "Belt and Road Initiative" issued the "Progress, contribution and Prospect of the" Belt and Road Initiative "Initiative. The report pointed out that from 2013 to 2018, Chinese enterprises have invested more than US $90 billion in countries along the route, with a turnover of more than US $400 billion in contracted projects in countries along the route, and more than US $40 billion in direct investment from countries along the route. Italy, Luxembourg, Switzerland and other countries have also officially announced their accession recently, which means that the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind advocated by the "Belt and Road Initiative" initiative has been widely accepted by the international community. The initiative is also becoming an important practical platform for building a community with a shared future for mankind, and has a positive effect on helping the global economy to deal with uncertainty.

2. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: deepening the removal of production capacity in key industries and strictly implementing the policy of capacity replacement

Huang Libin, spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and director of the Bureau of Operation Monitoring and Coordination, said that new production capacity of steel and flat glass is strictly prohibited, new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is strictly controlled, and violations of iron and steel production capacity are resolutely cracked down on. In the first quarter, the added value of the raw materials industry increased by 7.1 percent, an increase of 3.6 percentage points over the same period last year, and the capacity utilization rate of the iron and steel industry reached 79.2 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the same period last year.

3. Zhengzhou Urban Rail Transit Phase III Construction Plan (2019-2024) approved by the National Development and Reform Commission

In order to implement the development strategy of the Central Plains urban agglomeration, support the spatial structure layout of Zhengzhou metropolitan area, alleviate urban traffic congestion, and improve the level of urban public transport services, Zhengzhou Urban Rail Transit Phase III construction plan, Seven projects, including the second phase of the construction of Line 3, the first phase of Line 6, the first phase of Line 7, the first phase of Line 8, the first phase of Line 10, the first phase of Line 12, and the first phase of Line 14, have been approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. It is reported that the project planning period is 2019-2024. The total investment is 113.893 billion yuan.

4. Zhengzhou Iron and Steel and other industries will be exempted from off-peak production by the end of October to meet the standard of ultra-low emissions.

The deep treatment of industrial enterprises includes the construction of demonstration project of ultra-low emission of flue gas and the construction of deep treatment project of unorganized emission. Among them, the construction scope of flue gas ultra-low emission demonstration project is electric power, iron and steel, cement (including grinding station), non-ferrous metals, carbon, ceramics, brick kiln, refractory, casting, lime manufacturing, abrasive tools and other key air pollution emission industries. The construction scope of the unorganized emission depth control project is all industrial enterprises in the city. Enterprises (sections) that have completed the construction standard of the demonstration project for ultra-low emission of flue gas and the depth control standard of unorganized emission by the end of October 2019, and which have been checked and accepted by the relevant departments, will be exempted from off-peak production in autumn and winter. Downgrade or no longer control in the emergency control of heavily polluted weather. At the same time, we should make full use of the special funds for the development of advanced manufacturing industry in provinces and cities, and give financial support to the relevant enterprises.

5. Tangshan extends Class II Emergency response to heavily polluted Weather until April 30

According to the latest meeting between the Provincial Environmental Emergency and heavy pollution Weather early warning Center, the China Environmental Monitoring General Station and the Provincial Environmental Meteorological Center, Tangshan was affected by the southerly wind from April 26 to April 30, and the humidity was higher and the wind was lower. The diffusion conditions are unfavorable as a whole. The municipal heavy pollution weather response headquarters decided to postpone the lifting time of the city's class II emergency response to heavily polluted weather, which was launched on April 20, from 24:00 on April 25 to 24:00 on April 30.

Specific measures: within the Huancheng Road in the downtown area and in the urban areas of each county (city), from 7: 00 to 20:00 from Monday to Friday, the traffic restrictions will be restricted by a group of rotation at the end of the two license plates. Restrict the passage of 20% of non-operating small (light, micro) vehicles (including local temporary license plates, excluding foreign license plates), the traffic restriction grouping is consistent with Beijing, and the last number is the last number. Traffic is not restricted on statutory holidays and public holidays. No traffic no. 4 and 9 on April 26, no traffic restrictions on April 27 and 28, no. 5 and 0 on April 29, and no. 1 and 6 on April 30. Other emergency emission reduction measures shall be implemented in accordance with the Circular on the initiation of Class II Emergency response to heavily polluted Weather issued by the Municipal Government on 19 April.

6. From April 29 to May 4, China and Russia will hold joint military exercises in Qingdao.

The International military Cooperation Office of the Ministry of National Defense announced that the Chinese and Russian navies will hold a joint military exercise codenamed "Joint Maritime-2019" from April 29 to May 4 in the sea and airspace near Qingdao, Shandong Province, China. The subject of the joint maritime performance is "Joint Defense Operations at Sea." China and Russia sent a total of 2 submarines, 13 surface vessels, 7 fixed-wing aircraft, 4 helicopters and 80 Marines to participate in the performance. The exercise is divided into three stages: the planning and preparation of joint operations, the implementation of joint operations at sea, and the conclusion of the exercise.

7. Zhejiang Province issued and implemented the Emergency Plan for heavy pollution Weather in Zhejiang Province on March 29.

The "plan" requires that iron and steel enterprises: stop or limit production in sintering, pelletizing and other processes, strengthen unorganized waste gas treatment and material yard moisturizing and dust suppression, reduce the frequency of incoming and outgoing transport vehicles, and increase the frequency of road cleaning in the factory area; Cement enterprises: wrong peak production or stop production, cement grinding station stop production, strengthen material yard dust control, reduce the frequency of transport vehicles in and out of the factory, increase the frequency of road cleaning in the factory area.