SMM4 22 July news
Lead prices have been on a downward trend since 2019, for example, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has dealt a blow to downstream consumption and the supply side has maintained a high starting rate under relatively high processing fees. Lead in stock also showed a process of replenishment in 2019, so the weakness of lead was fully in line with fundamental expectations.
In May, according to SMM research, part of the original lead smelter planned maintenance, the impact should not be underestimated, then we list the planned maintenance refinery (note: all planned maintenance, the actual progress of SMM will be followed up at any time)
As shown in the figure, if all refineries are overhauled as scheduled, the output of electrolytic lead will be affected by 3 to 35000 tons in May alone, but at the same time, the maintenance of zinc and germanium and Anhui copper crown will be completed in May. We expect electrolytic lead production to be reduced by about 25, 000 to 30, 000 tons in May compared with the previous month. From the futures contract, it is not difficult to find that the contract from 1905 to 1906 changes from zero price difference to small back structure. Secondly, lead prices fell to around 16500 yuan, short main funds began to gradually leave the market to wait and see, so whether the contract structure or capital flows reflect the market concerns about refinery maintenance.
Refinery centralized maintenance, lead to return to the old story, can you force the warehouse?
From the point of view of inventory, as of April 19, the total social inventory is 36000 tons, compared with 18 years of forced position market, as shown in the chart, the red frame is 18 years of forced position market, the trend of social inventory and lead price changes; By simple comparison, the current inventory base is at the highest point in nearly one year, but assuming that the spot lead price maintains the current 16500 yuan, and the regeneration price difference is maintained at 50 to 100yuan / ton, the mainstream procurement in the market is still biased towards electrolytic lead, then the refinery will be overhauled in May. There is a high probability of continuous deactivation of social inventory, and there is a strong negative correlation between inventory and lead price. Therefore, we believe that there is a possibility that the soft warehouse market may occur, the contract structure suggests buying near and throwing away, and the trend of lead price suggests that the price of lead should be matched on the low side. Look at the high pressure level of 16800 to 17000 yuan / ton platform. (investment advice for reference only)