[review and Prospect]:
Futures: the trend of the snail this week is weak, with the settlement price of the 1910 contract falling 83 yuan from 3821 on Monday to 3738 on Friday.
Spot: this week, the average spot price fell after reaching its highest level (4183 yuan / ton) on the 16th, falling by 50 to 80 (the resource quotation of first-line steel mills fell slightly under the strong firm prices of steel mills and traders. The second and third line resources have a large drop in profits as soon as possible. Although there has been a decline, but this week the average price of thread across the country is still showing a rising trend in the overall stable operation in the high price range. (this week, the national average price of screw thread is 4161.4 yuan / ton, up 44.8 yuan / ton from 4116.6 yuan / ton last week), mainly due to the strong demand for screw thread in April, the macro data of real estate, infrastructure and other industries are showing a steady and positive trend. Therefore, the incremental pressure on supply intensified (the thread production reached a higher level after a year this week), but the inventory remained in a state of decline, thus it can be seen that the fundamental support is still there, so there is limited room for short-term spot pullback. In addition, the international conference will be held soon next week ("Belt and Road Initiative" summit 4.25 + naval 70th anniversary naval parade 4.23 + Beijing World Horticultural Expo 4.29), in order to ensure the smooth convening of the meeting, The early release of environmental protection news in the north (Handan and Tangshan have started the secondary response to heavy pollution weather one after another) has some restrictions on the production and transportation of the iron and steel industry. At the same time, Labour Day short holiday is approaching, and demand for replenishing warehouses before the festival is stimulated, and thread prices are expected to show a pattern of pullback and rebound next week, but due to the attraction of high profits, production releases non-stop, and the contradiction between supply and demand accumulates in the later period. Market operation still needs to be cautious, high chase high risk is greater.
1. Supply side: local environmental protection and production restriction policies are frequent, and the overall strength has been relaxed compared with the same period last year.
This week, Linfen, Shanxi, and Wu'an, Hebei, issued differentiated production control schemes in 2019, and Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, also issued the Xuzhou Air pollution Prevention and Control regulations. According to SMM research, compared with previous years, production restrictions in non-heating seasons, This year's production restriction policy is obviously more detailed and accurate, and the plan issued by Wu'an City has even clearly stipulated the production restriction equipment and specific production time of 14 steel mills in Wu'an City. Among them,
Steel mill A (Linfen): it has been affected by production restrictions for two years in a row, but this year's production restrictions have been slightly relaxed compared with last year. By September, the impact has reached 1/6 of the daily output.
Steel mill B (Wu'an): a total of three blast furnaces, one of which is affected by the heating season production restrictions, the blast furnace will continue to stop production under the influence of the non-heating season production restrictions.
2. Demand side: relevant macro data are released, market confidence is boosted, but the effect is limited.
This week, the National Bureau of Statistics released a series of macro data. China's GDP grew 6.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, maintaining the same growth rate as in the fourth quarter of 2018. Among them, in real estate, the construction area of real estate development enterprises in China increased by 8.2 percent in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the period from January to February. The area of new housing starts increased by 11.9 percent, an increase of 5.9 percentage points. The area of commercial housing sales fell 0.9 percent from a year earlier, 2.7 percentage points lower than in January-February. The area of land purchased by real estate development enterprises fell 33.1% from a year earlier, a decrease of 1 percentage point from January to February. Although the data show that China's real estate industry picked up somewhat in March compared with January-February, the extent of recovery is limited, and in terms of the area of commercial housing sales and the area of land purchase by real estate development enterprises, Compared with the same period last year, it is still not optimistic. On the infrastructure front, infrastructure investment grew by 4.4 per cent in the first quarter, up from 3.8 per cent for the whole of last year, but also modestly.
Total inventory: total thread stock this week was 8.943 million tons, down 634000 tons from last week,-6.6 per cent compared with the previous week. Compared with the same period last year, current inventories are lower than 71.4 tons in the same period last year, down 7.4 per cent from a year earlier.
Social inventory: this week's screw thread stock was 6.963 million tons, down 591000 tons from 755.4 last week, a month-on-month ratio of-7.8 percent, compared with 7.26 million tons in the same period of the 18-year lunar calendar, down 4.1 percent from the same period last year.
In-plant inventory: this week thread factory warehouse 1.98 million tons, down 44000 tons from 202.4 last week, month-on-month-2.2%, down 17.4% from the same period last year.
In terms of inventory data, rebar stocks have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, and this week's decline in thread stocks (44000 tons) has narrowed sharply compared with last week's drop (227000 tons). This was mainly due to an increase in supply and a slight decline in demand after a concentrated outbreak in the previous two weeks.
[macro and policy aspects]
1. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a letter soliciting opinions on a new round of stimulus policies for the consumption of cars and household appliances.
The General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued a letter soliciting opinions on the implementation Plan for promoting the Renewal of consumption of Automobile, Home Appliances and Consumer Electronic products and promoting the Development of Circular economy (2019-2020) (draft for soliciting opinions). In the draft for soliciting comments, it is proposed to carry out a "trade-in" campaign for household appliances, with a subsidy of no more than 13 percent of the product price for new green and intelligent household appliances, with a ceiling of 800 yuan per unit.
2. NDRC: speeding up the progress of investment in the central budget has been issued by more than 80% in the first quarter.
According to the "Government work report," investment in the central budget this year will be 577.6 billion yuan, an increase of 40 billion yuan over last year. In our specific work, we pay attention to planning ahead of time, making careful arrangements, strengthening dispatch, and speeding up the progress of investment in the central budget. More than 80 percent have been issued in the first quarter, ensuring the funding needs of key construction projects. It has played a positive role in achieving a smooth start to the economy.
[summary of major events]
1. Linfen, Shanxi Province issued "Circular on the implementation of differentiated production Control of Industrial Enterprises in key areas of non-heating season"
The control time of the notice is from April 15 to September 30, and the scope of control is one city and three districts (Yaodu District, Xiangfen County, Hongdong County, Linfen Development Zone). The specific control industries include iron and steel, coking, cement, chemical and other key industries. And according to the enterprise in the emission reduction management and the railway transportation proportion and so on the situation carries on the division and according to the grade clear limit production situation.
2. Shandong: send 8 inspection teams to carry out key control and inspection of air pollution
From April 17 to May 17, Shandong will send eight inspection teams to 16 cities to carry out a month-long special campaign to crack down on air pollution. The inspection team will focus on the cities with the lowest ambient air quality in 168 key cities in China in March 2019 (Jinan, Zibo, Zaozhuang, Dongying, Weifang, Taian, Linyi, Liaocheng, Binzhou, etc.). Key inspection: ultra-low emission operation of coal-fired boilers, treatment of industrial pollution sources, regulation of industrial furnace capacity, "scattered pollution" enterprise management, unorganized emission control of industrial enterprises, etc.
3. Wu'an City: issued the implementation Plan of differential Control and Control of Air pollution Prevention and Control in the second quarter of Steel Coking cement Industry in Wu'an City in 2019
On April 13th, Wu'an City issued the implementation Plan of differential Control and Control of Air pollution Prevention and Control in the second quarter of Wu'an Iron and Steel Industry in 2019, which clearly stipulated that Hebei Xinjin Iron and Steel, Wu'an Mingfang Iron and Steel, Hebei Xinwuan Iron and Steel Group Wen'an Iron and Steel, Winfeng Iron and Steel, Jinding heavy Industry, Yuhua Iron and Steel, Puyang Iron and Steel, Xinghua Iron and Steel and other 14 iron and steel enterprises to limit production equipment and production time.
4. Xuzhou City: the regulations on the Prevention and Control of Air pollution in Xuzhou City will go into effect on May 1.
The regulations on the Prevention and Control of Air pollution in Xuzhou City (hereinafter referred to as the "regulations") were examined and approved by the eighth meeting of the standing Committee of the 13th Jiangsu Provincial people's Congress a few days ago and will enter into force on May 1. The regulations break down the responsibility for the prevention and control of air pollution into more than a dozen government departments, such as ecological environment, development and reform, industrial credit, housing construction, transportation, and so on, and stipulate the system of off-peak production in autumn and winter in heavy pollution industries. Take the iron and steel, building materials, coking, casting, non-ferrous, chemical and other industries with high energy consumption and large pollutant emissions as the focus, formulate the wrong peak production plan. At the same time, it is required to specify the wrong peak production requirements of the pollutant discharge unit in the copy of the sewage discharge permit, which not only enables the enterprise to arrange the production plan reasonably, but also makes the wrong peak production more operable.
5. Tangshan starts Class II Emergency response to heavily polluted Weather
According to the latest meeting between the Provincial Environmental Emergency and heavy pollution Weather early warning Center, the China Environmental Monitoring General Station and the Provincial Environmental Meteorological Center, the wind force in Tangshan was weak from the 20th to the 25th, the humidity increased, and the overall diffusion conditions gradually became worse. There will be moderate to severe pollution. In accordance with the requirements of the Provincial Atmospheric Office's Circular on the response to recent polluted Weather processes (Hebei Gas leadership Office (2019) 68), the Municipal heavy pollution Weather response Command decided from 8: 00 to 24:00 on April 20, 2019, The city launched a class II emergency response to heavily polluted weather. Among them, industrial source emission reduction measures:
(1) Iron and steel industry. The performance evaluation is Class A and more than 40% of the sintering machine equipment is located outside the urban built area (including the county area), and more than 50% of the sintering machine equipment is located in the urban built area (including the county district). Evaluation for Class B, stop more than 60% of the sintering machine equipment; Evaluation for Class C, stop more than 70% of the sintering machine equipment; Evaluation for Class D, stop sintering machine equipment. All iron and steel enterprises stop more than 50% of shaft furnaces and lime kiln equipment. It is prohibited to use production equipment that has been dismantled, phased out and suspended for a long time as the base for emission reduction and shutdown. Before 18:00 on April 19, the enterprises reported the production plan for the early warning period to the territorial government and the municipal environmental protection command center for the record, and it is strictly forbidden to adjust it without authorization after the record.
(2) Coking industry. The performance evaluation is class A, the focus time is extended to 28 hours, and the evaluation is class B, C, the focus time is extended to 36 hours.
6. Handan City launched a Class II emergency response to heavily polluted weather from 8: 00 to 24:00 on April 20, 2019.
The office of the Handan heavy pollution Weather Emergency Command issued a notice on the 19th, which was jointly discussed and judged by the Handan Environmental Monitoring Center of Hebei Province, the Municipal Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Center, and the expert Group on Air pollution Prevention and Control. It is expected that from 20 to 25 April, Due to the influence of heating and high humidity, the diffusion condition is poor, and the process of moderate or above pollution may occur in Handan city. Based on the study of the municipal heavy pollution weather emergency command, it was decided to start the class II emergency response from 8: 00 to 24:00 on April 20, 2019. Period:
(1) Iron and steel, coking and other key industries: according to the "Handan City 2019 key industries in the second quarter of air pollution prevention and control plan" (Handan leader office (2019) 96) to implement differentiated control. And the production capacity of sintering machines in iron and steel enterprises and the number of units, the proportion of stop production of shaft furnaces and white ash kilns have reached more than 50% (stop production of a single sintering machine), cement, brick, rock wool and other building materials industries (except glass industry), Casting industry melting and casting process, all industry spraying section (except automatic automobile production line) to implement production shutdown measures.
(2) Construction: in principle, stop all demolition operations and earthwork at the construction site (including: stopping earthwork excavation, backfilling, reverse transportation in the site, mixing lime, concrete chipping, etc.), Stop the excavation of supporting roads and pipe ditches in construction projects). Stop outdoor spraying, painting, cutting, slope spraying. State and provincial and municipal key projects, poverty alleviation and relocation projects, people's livelihood projects and approved by the Municipal Construction Bureau to resume work on the premise of strict "6-2 100%" under the premise of normal construction.
(3) Transportation: diesel agricultural vehicles and tractors are prohibited from driving on the road in the main urban areas and in the urban areas of counties (cities and districts), and other heavy cargo vehicles and construction machinery (except those who use clean energy and obtain permits) are not allowed to drive on the road; Construction waste and slag transport vehicles, sand and gravel transport vehicles are prohibited from driving on the road (with the approval of the municipal government, except for key projects and livelihood projects). The county (city, district) government (management committee) overall arrangement, involves the gas enterprise bulk material transportation heavy diesel vehicle to stop the operation to the maximum extent.
7. Dezhou City and Linyi City, Shandong Province start Grade II Emergency response to heavily polluted Weather
According to the forecast of China Environmental Monitoring Station and Provincial Environmental Monitoring Center, a large-scale process of moderate to severe pollution will occur in the inland areas of Shandong Province from April 21 to 25, 2019. The emergency work headquarters of Dezhou City and Linyi City decided to issue orange early warning for heavily polluted weather at 18:00 on April 19 and 12:00 on April 20, respectively, and to launch a Class II emergency response at 00: 00 on the 21st. The document requires industrial enterprises to implement emergency emission reduction list measures for heavily polluted weather during the non-heating season.