"[live broadcast of aluminum summit] Analysis of hot topics such as aluminum inventory, aluminum price, alumina supply and demand, loss of aluminum enterprises, etc.
China's inflation rebound in March was mainly due to a rise in pork prices, but the rise was not cyclical, but short-term. In 2019, domestic economic growth was a steady period, between 6.0% and 6.5%, and prices were less than 2.5% for the whole year. Economic and price stability can support loose monetary policy.
Weakening of Global Trade growth affects China's outward economy
In February 2019, WTO statistics on current global merchandise trade in US dollars showed that exports from Japan and China fell by 20.75 per cent and 3.49 per cent respectively compared with the same period last year.
Global stock markets are stronger than emerging markets
From March 1 to March 28, developed markets outperformed emerging markets. The MSCI emerging markets index fell 0.55 per cent, with the industrial sector down 3.23 per cent, the worst performing, while the MSCI developed markets index rose 0.45 per cent and the real estate sector rose 4.21 per cent, the biggest gain.
Interest rates fall slightly to hedge risk
On March 28, 2019, yields on 10-year bonds in Japan, Germany, the US, China and India were-0.086 per cent,-0.08 per cent, 2.39 per cent, 3.0634 per cent and 7.32 per cent, respectively.
Demand is relatively weak and colored down slightly
10. Demand is relatively weak and colored is still running below 50
Domestic economy: improving the quality of the economy and increasing the efficiency of Finance and currency
Investment in Troika: slow growth and structural Optimization
As of February 28, 2019, the cumulative investment in fixed assets was 4.4849 trillion yuan, up 6.1% from the same period last year, and the growth rate of new investment in fixed assets was 9%. Among the sources of funds, self-raised funds accounted for 0.65%, with a year-on-year growth rate of-0.6%, and domestic loans accounted for 0.11%, with a year-on-year growth rate of-5.3%.
Real estate investment in the troika: falling inventories and falling sales
On February 28, 2019, the cumulative amount of real estate development nationwide was 1.208984 trillion yuan, up 11.6 percent from the same period last year. The completed investment in commercial housing was 1.58375283 trillion yuan, up-9.4 percent from the same period last year, and the completed investment in residential housing was 6.87038743 trillion yuan, up 13.4 percent from the same period last year.
Infrastructure Investment of Troika: steady growth of Iron Foundation
Consumption of the troika: the decline of consumption growth and the rapid rise of e-commerce
The consumption of Troika: the rise of Real Estate and the decline of the first Line
In 2018, the total retail volume of consumer goods in Beijing was 1.174768 trillion yuan, up 2.7 percent from the same period last year, and the total retail volume of consumer goods in Shanghai was 1.266869 trillion yuan, up 7.9 percent from the same period last year. The cumulative value of retail sales of consumer goods in Guangzhou was 158.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of 7.6 percent, and that of Shenzhen was 97.596 billion yuan, a change of 5.5 percent over the same period last year. The top 10 provinces in China are Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, Hubei, Hebei, Hunan and Liaoning.
Consumption of Troika: consumption upgrade and stylistic priority
As of December 31, 2018, the stability of import and export trade rose slightly to 4.62304 trillion yuan. The United States is the main source of the trade surplus, while Japan and South Korea are mainly represented by the trade deficit. Bilateral trade between China and Europe is the most active, followed by the United States. The volume of imports and exports between China and Southeast Asian countries has rebounded, and the volume of trade with South Korea and Japan has exceeded that with Russia.
Import and export situation: trade structure needs to be gradually improved
As of February 28, 2019, China's exports were US $135.24 billion, an increase of-20.7 per cent over the same period last year. General trade accounts for an increasing proportion of global exports and has become a major exporter in the world. Among the countries exported to Asia, South Korea exported the most, followed by North Korea, and the bilateral trade volume between Mongolia and Malaysia was the lowest. Exports of machinery and equipment, textile yarns, fabrics and products, clothing, electric motors and generators and integrated circuits are among the largest exports.
Import and Export situation: Sino-US Trade is greatly affected by Trade War
Monetary easing: a slight decline in interest rates
As of April 9, 2019, the Shanghai interbank offered rate (SHIBOR) overnight interest rate was 1.8%, the one-week interest rate was 2.47%, the interbank pledge repo weighted rate was 1.49%, and the 7-day repurchase rate was 2.36%.
As of March 31, 2019, the expected yield of RMB wealth management products was 3.66% in one week, 4.28% in three months and 4.41% in one year.
According to data from the people's Bank of China, as of December 31, 2018, the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans for China's financial institutions was 5.63%. In December 2018, the lending rate of financial institutions accounted for 18.47% according to the benchmark interest rate. The total proportion of floating down is 16.27%, and that of floating up is 65.26%.
Monetary easing: monetary relative easing (stable leverage)
In terms of open market operations, as of April 5, 2019, the net money invested in that week was 0 billion yuan, and the 7-day reverse repo rate reached 2.55% on March 19, 2019. In March 2019, the renminbi deposit reserve ratio of large deposit financial institutions reached 13.5%, the SLF operation was 32.72 billion yuan, the PSL provided 58.6 billion yuan, and the monthly investment value of MLF reached 473.5 million yuan. The one-year medium-term lending facility interest rate is 3.3%.
As of December 31, 2018, the quarterly deposit-loan ratio of China's commercial banks was 74.34%, the capital adequacy ratio reached 14.2%, and the net interest margin reached 2.18%.
Monetary easing: wide credit and wide currency
Monetary policy tools: relative flexibility
Pro-active fiscal policy: a small increase in the fiscal deficit
Future Policy mix: loose Monetary Policy and active Fiscal Policy
In the future, the combination of macro policy will be loose monetary policy superimposed by active fiscal policy, which will jointly promote economic growth and stabilize asset prices.
Asset allocation recommendations: long allocation of stocks and bonds, commodity hedges
The relationship between Merrill Lynch Investment clock and Major assets
Merrill Lynch investment clock well matches the relationship between economic cycle and financial cycle, but in recent years, the global market asset allocation has changed rapidly, which is reflected in two aspects: (1) the stock market and commodities are greatly affected by funds; (2) High volatility in commodity markets, ice and fire in stock market development markets and emerging economies.
Performance of major categories of assets over the past 10 years