Current Review (28 March)
Spot: today's steel market prices are generally stable, and the hot coil is slightly stronger than the thread. Tangshan area billet continued to rebound 10 to 3440 yuan / ton. Deal: it's still okay. Market mentality: positive and stable.
Futures: the overall rebound of the black system stopped, the fatigue is all obvious.
RB1905 contract: continue to significantly reduce positions within days, tail reduction to 160000 hands, within days between 3734 and 3676 high fall, closing 3690. The main organization within the day clearance single 17981 hands.
HC1905 contract: within the day a small reduction, tail reduction to 21558 hands, within the day between 3714 and 3655 to fall back, the end of the harvest of 3675. The main organization within the day clearance single 3187 hands.
Iron ore l1905 contract: within days to significantly reduce positions, tail reduction to 24962 hands, within days between 614.5 and 605 high fall, closing 607. Within the day, the main organization clearance list 2580 hands.
Demon Jiao J1905 contract: within the day to significantly reduce the position, tail reduced to 27342 hands, in the day between 1976 to 1944.5 between strong shock, closing 1965. The main organization has a net increase of 4503 hands per day.
Coking coal JM1905 contract: within the day a small reduction, tail reduced to 13736 hands, in the day between 1243.5 and 1227 of the height of the fall, the tail harvest of 1228.5. The main organization within the day clearance single 1721 hands.
Forecast for tomorrow
1. Spot: stable and stronger.
12. Awareness of equivalent prices this year and the same period last year.
Static total inventory and price two-dimensional space, last Thursday RB total inventory of 11.72 million tons, corresponding to the average price of East China Shanghai market as an example of 3800 yuan / ton; In the same period last year, the total RB inventory was 13.24 million tons, corresponding to the average price of 3650 yuan per tonne. Considering that the cost was moved up and VAT files were excluded this year, the cost shift value was not less than 200 yuan per ton. At this time in 2019, the "equivalent" price is 3600 (3800 to 200). Which price is lower?
13. The steel is about 45 days away from the delivery date, and the exchange of funds is continuing. The current paste water is not low, taking the Shanghai market in East China as an example, the actual transaction price of the three brands is 3820 yuan / ton, and the closing price of steel futures is 3690 yuan. The discount is 331yuan. If the price continues to fall, the loss of short-process electric arc furnace steel enterprises into the general return, thus triggering capacity contraction is a high probability event. The author has said that the capacity of electric arc furnace is often reviewed and the capacity of short-paced electric arc furnace is the weight to determine the balance between supply and demand. How much do you worry about?
14. Analysis of environmental protection and production restriction policy.
Last year, environmental protection and production restrictions were more likely to hear thunder and no rain, especially in Tangshan and Shanxi Province. Judging from the overall situation of maintaining and stabilizing the economy this year, although we cannot bear to cut the knife on the whole iron and steel industry in the first half of this year, it is certain that the fall of blood in some areas is a high probability event, especially in Tangshan, Shanxi Province, and so on. rub one's eyes and wait. The benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom.
15. The so-called downward inflection point in demand has emerged and will not be repeated. For details, see the Weekly Review. The author still maintains the judgment of the middle and late April. Only margin is the VAT downgrade disturbance operation rhythm only! The original pressure in early April was advanced to the end of March.
16. The so-called technology riding wall school, RB1905 contract 3700 has been broken, plummeted open! I would have my heart to the moon, how could the moon shine on the ditch!