SMM3, 21 March 2019: from March 21 to 22, 2019, the 2019 Tin Industry chain International Summit hosted by Shanghai Color Network was held in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province. Li Ziyan, senior analyst of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network Tin, explained the hot spot analysis and production capacity forecast of China's tin market in 2019. She said that SMM expects that in 2019, the domestic tin mine supply will be mainly tight, the domestic production capacity will be basically stable, and the raw material supply will become the main reason for restraining the growth of refined tin production. At present, the main areas of consumption are basically stable, and traditional consumption is facing downward risk. The gradual development of new consumption field will support tin consumption to a certain extent. Taken together, it is expected that the center of gravity of domestic tin prices is expected to rise in 2019.
Tin prices rose at the beginning of 2019.
LME tin stocks hit a record low, falling to 975 tons at one point. The rally, which began in January, was mainly due to the rapid decline in LME tin stocks caused by blocked Indonesian tin exports, raising concerns about supply in the tin market. In late February, the Yinman mining accident increased the market's concern about whether the domestic tin mine demand can be met. Exports of tin ingots from Indonesian private smelters are restricted and supplies remain tight in overseas markets. In the current rally, export resistance from Indonesia and concerns about unmet demand for Chinese tin mines are the main driving force behind the rise in tin prices.
Analysis on supply and demand of Tin Market in China
Domestic tin ore: stable and declining output
The increase in production in 2019 is likely to be modest. The main producing areas in the south: due to strict environmental protection verification and safety inspection, production growth is still limited. Inner Mongolia: 1) Yinman Mining: it plans to increase production to more than 6000 tons in 2018 and has been ordered to suspend production in February 2019.2 due to mine traffic accidents. 2) Velasto Mining: in preparation for start-up, there is no news of production for the time being. 3) Huanggang Mining Industry: the output is stable and there is no plan to increase production.
2018 imports of mines fell by 25 per cent 2019 imports are expected to continue to decline.
In 2019, tin ingot production is difficult to recover or continue to decline slightly. According to SMM data, domestic tin ingot production in 2018 was 155000 tons, down 5.7 per cent from the same period last year. From January to February 2019, affected by Spring Festival factors, the cumulative output was 22000 tons. In 2018, the impact of environmental inspection on tin production was weakened, and the main reason for the reduction in production was the shortage of raw materials. The shortage of raw materials in 2019 will continue to restrict the production of refined tin.
2019 domestic inventory is expected to continue slowly
Tin export market is active
Solder: the output of traditional solder products is at risk of decline
Affected by the economic environment, tin consumption in the solder industry is facing a downward risk, especially in traditional areas such as white goods. The output of solder paste and tin powder will continue to increase, and the output of tin bars will decline. With the acceleration of 5G base station construction from 2019 to 2020, this field is expected to boost solder consumption.
Chemical Industry: the Trade Environment between China and the United States has an impact on some orders
The trade environment between China and the United States affects the export of downstream products of tin chemical industry, thus affecting the order of chemical products. The price rose sharply after the production capacity of mercaptoester, the main raw material of thiol methyl tin, was reduced, which led to the surge of cost pressure in methyl tin production enterprises. The production of PVC increases steadily year by year, and the demand for PVC stabilizer increases with it.
Tinplate: overcapacity is expected to be stable in 2019
Tinplate industry is still in a state of overcapacity, there is a new production capacity due to poor demand and stop production. The high price of hot rolled plate affects the production enthusiasm of tinplate enterprises in stages.
The trade environment between China and the United States indirectly affects tinplate orders, and tinplate demand is expected to be stable in 2019.
Summary of domestic supply and demand
The main results are as follows: 1. Domestic mines are affected by relevant policies and the normalization of safety and environmental protection inspection, and the output growth is restrained.
2. The supply of imported minerals is expected to continue to decline, and the future market will pay attention to the trends of new ore sources at home and abroad.
3. The domestic tin mine supply is expected to be tight in 2019.
1. Domestic production capacity is basically stable, raw material supply will become the main reason to restrain the growth of refined tin production.
2. The consumption power is insufficient, and the surplus inventory will continue to decline slowly in the past.
3. Pay attention to the import and export of refined tin and other tin products in China.
1. At present, the main areas of consumption are basically stable, paying attention to the impact of policy changes in each terminal area on tin consumption. Macroeconomic factors such as economic growth expectations and the trade environment between China and the United States will affect some of the demand.
2. The gradual development of new consumption field will support tin consumption to a certain extent.
Output of other major producing countries tends to decline without bright spots
Tin mine projects planned for production in the future
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