[review this week]:
In the fifth week after the festival, the weather in most areas basically cleared up, and the procurement downstream of the market gradually resumed. 13 Tangshan area issued a notice to lift the heavily polluted weather class I response, the notice once released to curb the rise in spot prices, but most of the region thread prices remained strong and did not reduce prices. From this point of view, the thread fundamentals are still supported in the short term, but since the inventory has not yet returned to the average level (the average total inventory in 2018 is 7.506 million tons), the support is limited. On the 15th, the value-added tax was reduced from 16% to 13%. As soon as this news came out, the futures were under downward pressure, and although the spot prices in the market remained stable for the time being, most traders closed their stores and cherished sales, and the short-term market entered the game period between buyers and sellers. And the official document of the tax reduction policy has not yet been released, the interference of external factors is still in, and the steel price is still in the process of storing capacity.
1. Supply side: in the fifth week after the festival, Hebei and Jiangsu issued a notice to lift the early warning of heavily polluted weather one after another.
[notice on lifting the Grade I Emergency response to Regional first and Regional double polluted Weather in Hebei Province] Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Langfang, Baoding, Cangzhou, Hengshui, Xingtai, Handan, Dingzhou, Xinji, Office of the leading Group for the Prevention and Control of Air pollution in Xiongan New District: through a joint meeting between the Provincial Environmental Emergency and heavy pollution Weather early warning Center, the China Environmental Monitoring General Station and the Provincial Environmental Meteorological Center, It is expected that the overall diffusion conditions in our province will be favorable from March 14 to 21. In accordance with the requirements of the Emergency Plan for heavily polluted Weather in Hebei Province, member units are now invited to remove the level I emergency response status of regional first and regional double polluted weather.
[lifting Yellow early warning of heavily polluted Weather in eight cities in Jiangsu Province] according to a notice issued by the Department of Ecological Environment of Jiangsu Province, it is expected that from 15 to 17 March, the conditions for atmospheric diffusion will be relatively good, and the air quality in the whole province will be mainly good. Meet the conditions for lifting the early warning of the Emergency Plan for heavily polluted Weather in Jiangsu Province. Since 16:00 on March 14, orange warnings for heavily polluted weather in Xuzhou, Lianyungang, Huaian, Yancheng and Suqian have been lifted, and yellow warnings for heavily polluted weather in Nanjing, Wuxi, Changzhou, Suzhou, Nantong, Yangzhou, Zhenjiang and Taizhou have been lifted.
The two provinces have lifted the early warning notice of heavy pollution weather one after another, and steel mills are no longer affected by production restrictions and resume normal production.
2. Demand side: we are going back to work one after another this week, and the terminal demand is still waiting to be released.
In the government's work report on March 8, 2019, the National people's Congress reiterated that it would enact a real estate tax law. Clearly put forward "steadily promote real estate tax legislation." This is the third volume real estate tax reported by the government after 2014 and 2018. Unlike last year, this year is steady progress and last year is "safe progress." From "safe" to "steady", one word difference, it can be seen that China's real estate tax legislation is being promoted. However, many factors lead to the real estate tax can not be introduced in the short term, at least 2020 is difficult to achieve a full collection of real estate tax, before the real landing of the policy, although the short-term news side has a negative impact on the relevant industries, but the impact is relatively limited. The legislative plan for real estate tax will certainly affect house prices in the short term. When the news of the implementation of the Real Estate tax Law in 2019 came out, the share prices of typical radical real estate enterprises, such as Rongchuang and country Garden, fell sharply. Share prices reacted most violently to bad news. The introduction of the real estate tax will make the cost of real estate developers to cover the house more and more high, in this expectation, real estate developers will speed up the sale of housing in their hands, in order to avoid the cost of real estate tax landing. Under the influence of this linkage, the construction industry will suffer a certain impact in the short term, and the growth rate will slow down. From January to February, the new housing construction area will be 188.14 million square meters, an increase of 6.0 percent, and the growth rate will fall by 11.2 percentage points. However, there is still a long time before the real estate tax legislation, the news will be digested, and the construction industry is limited by the real estate tax legislation, the market should not be overly bearish.
An internal study by the China Rail Transit Association of the transportation industry shows that the direct contribution rate of rail transit construction to GDP is not less than 2.63 times, and the comprehensive contribution rate is more than 6.2 times. According to this calculation, the direct contribution of the planned urban rail transit lines to GDP is 9.6 trillion yuan, and the comprehensive contribution is 30.36 trillion yuan. However, what is not suitable for the development situation of urban rail transit industry in China is that the process of legalization of rail transit lags behind seriously, and so far there is no unified legal guarantee for the development of the industry. To this end, she Caigao, deputy to the National people's Congress and chairman of the Nanjing Metro Group, proposed to include the "Urban Rail Transit Law" in the national legislative plan as soon as possible, sort out the legal system of urban rail transit, and determine the level, scope, and authority of legislation. Manage urban rail transit according to law, so that there are laws to abide by, violations of the law must be investigated; All localities shall formulate or revise relevant laws and regulations in accordance with the provisions and duties of the basic laws to ensure the healthy and orderly development of this important livelihood industry.
Machinery industry this week machinery industry production is stable. In January 2019, according to the statistics of the Association, the total sales volume of products increased by 0.8%, of which exports increased by 10%. Among the main products, excavators sold more than 18000 units in February, an increase of 59.5% over January and an increase of 68.7% over the same period last year. The cumulative increase was nearly 40 per cent compared with the same period last year. According to the investigation of the construction machinery industry chain, the sales volume of excavators is expected to grow faster than expected in the first quarter of 2019. At present, the demand for renewal is dominant in the demand for construction machinery and equipment, and most of the participants in the industry are long-term participants, and the expectation of the follow-up engineering quantity supports their purchasing power. In 2019, there were unforeseen risks in the development of the national economy. The whole industry responded actively and took measures to make full use of and implement the various macro-control policies of the state, so as to make the development of the industry continue to improve.
Production in the auto industry fell this week. According to the latest data from the China Automobile Association, China's automobile production and sales both fell in February. In February, China's automobile production and sales completed 1.41 million and 1.482 million vehicles respectively, down 40.4 percent and 37.4 percent respectively from the previous month. They were down 17.4 per cent and 13.8 per cent respectively from a year earlier. This is also the car market for eight consecutive months of year-on-year decline, mainly due to the market downturn and the Spring Festival holiday factors, the decline in production and sales is also expected in the market. A total of 3.23 million narrow passenger cars were sold from January to February this year, down 16.7 percent from January to February, down 8.8 percent from January to February, according to the Federation of Rider Federation data. Retail data are better than wholesale data, indicating that destocking in the industry continues. As for new energy vehicles, production and sales continued to grow, with production and sales of new energy vehicles completing 150000 and 148000 vehicles respectively from January to February, an increase of 83.5 per cent and 98.9 per cent respectively over the same period last year. At the beginning of the year, the government implemented the "car to the countryside" policy and auto manufacturers to promote their own factory subsidy activities are also being implemented, is expected to boost consumer confidence and stimulate the recovery of the auto market.
According to the forecast of China Home Appliances Industry Information Center, the retail scale of household electrical appliances market will reach 829.1 billion yuan in 2019. Industry insiders pointed out that online and offline sales of household appliances are moving towards integration, double-line layout of enterprises have more advantages. From the policy point of view, circular economy has been paid more and more attention. At a press conference held a few days ago at the second session of the 13th National people's Congress, He Lifeng, minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that at present, there are about 200 million cars and hundreds of millions of household appliances in China, according to the normal rate of renewal. Is a very large market in itself. It was also revealed that the NDRC is drafting a recycling policy, including used cars and household appliances, to promote the further development of the circular economy. In response to the call of the state, SUNING put up $1 billion in new subsidies this time, SUNING President Hou Enlong said that exchanging the old for new is a treasure hunt from the "garbage dump." The market of old household appliances in China is very large. If we catch this group of consumers, we will be able to grasp the "blue sea" of household appliance sales at present, and we can also better implement corporate social responsibility and promote the development of circular economy. However, it takes about 10 years for electrical appliances to be recycled as waste, and it is difficult for circular economy to have a significant impact on the steel market in the short term.
Total inventory: the national total thread inventory 1248.6, down 766000 tons from last week, month-on-month ratio of-5.8 per cent. Compared with the same period last year, current inventories are lower than 1.041 million tons in the same period last year.
Social inventory: this week's thread database 972.1, down 41.7% from last week's 1013.8, down 4.1% from the previous week. With the stable recovery of the downstream market, the social database is also gradually consumed, down 2.1% from the same period last year, down 2.1% from the same period last year.
Factory inventory: this week thread factory warehouse 276.4, compared with last week 311.4 down 35, month-on-month-11.2%, down 23.3% from the same period last year, market demand is gradually recovering.
The inventory reduction in the fifth week after the festival obviously benefited from the steady recovery of terminal demand. At the same time, the news of environmental protection and production restrictions was issued frequently in various places earlier this week. Some terminals expected a contraction in short-term supply, and their purchasing mentality improved and their purchasing frequency increased. It also plays a certain role in promoting thread inventory consumption. The decline in factory stocks this week has become the main reason for the decline in total inventory.
[macro and policy aspects]
1. Easing of bond issuance by local financing vehicles: lifting the "single 50%" restriction within 6 months
Restrictions on bond issuance by local financing vehicles have been relaxed. On March 13, the reporter learned that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange last week window guidance relaxed the local financing vehicles to issue corporate bonds declaration conditions. The main contents include: for debt maturing within six months, in order to borrow new and repay the old for the purpose of issuing corporate bonds, liberalize the upper limit of 50% of government revenue, but do not allow complementary replenishment. Sources pointed out that the window guidance has not been issued, in order to relax the reporting standards. However, due to the low rating of local government platforms at the city and county level, the issuance still faces the problem of lack of investor will.
According to the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Transportation, by the end of 2019, the main line toll booths between Zhejiang Province and Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Anhui will be cancelled, and by June 2020, all the main line toll stations in Zhejiang Province will be cancelled. Realize the network operation with all the surrounding provinces (cities) expressway.
3. The increase in steel production in Vietnam may affect the global market in 2019
Due to the strong performance of Vietnamese steel exports and the increase in domestic production, it is expected to affect the pattern of global steel trade in 2019. Although steel exports were affected by US section 232 tariffs, Vietnamese steel exports to the United States increased significantly in 2018, unlike the decline in exports from other Asian countries.
[summary of major events]
Investment in real estate development increased by 11.6% from January to February 2019 compared with the same period last year.
From January to February 2019, investment in real estate development nationwide totaled 1.209 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6 percent over the same period last year, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over 2018. Of this total, residential investment totaled 871.1 billion yuan, an increase of 18.0 percent, an increase of 4.6 percentage points. Residential investment accounted for 72.1% of real estate development investment. From January to February, the sales area of commercial housing was 141.02 million square meters, down 3.6 percent from the same period last year, and an increase of 1.3 percent for the whole of 2018. Among them, residential sales area decreased by 3.2%, office building sales area decreased by 15.7%, and commercial business house sales area decreased by 13.6%. Sales of commercial housing totaled 1.2803 trillion yuan, up 2.8 percent, down 9.4 percentage points. Of this total, residential sales rose 4.5%, office sales fell 6.2%, and commercial sales fell 9.4%.
2. Ministry of Ecological Environment: it will take about three years to complete the second round of central ecological and environmental protection inspectors
Recently, a special training course for eco-environmental protection inspectors was held in Beijing. Li Ganjie, minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, pointed out at the training course that it is necessary to promote the in-depth development of central eco-environmental protection inspectors and help fight a tough battle for pollution prevention and control. In the practice of inspectors, we should create a leader in the iron army for ecological environment protection and strive to do a good job in five aspects. Full launch of the second round of routine inspectors. From 2019, it will take about three years to complete the second round of central eco-environmental protection routine inspectors, and another year to carry out "looking back." In the second round of inspectors, the scope of inspectors will be appropriately expanded to include relevant departments and enterprises.
The average daily output of crude steel from March to February is 2.5353 million tons.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February 2019, the national crude steel output was 149.58 million tons, an increase of 9.2 percent over the same period last year, and the steel output was 171.46 million tons, an increase of 10.7 percent over the same period last year. From January to February, the average daily output of crude steel was 2.5353 million tons, an increase of 79800 tons, or 3.25 percent, over December last year. The average daily output of steel was 2.9061 million tons, down 115000 tons, or 3.8 per cent, from December.