SMM3, March 15: on the 13th, the new Brexit agreement was vetoed by Parliament. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond released the Spring Budget report 2019 in Parliament, which said that due to the uncertainty of Brexit and the impact of the global economic slowdown, Slashed its forecast for UK growth in 2019 to 1.2 per cent from 1.6 per cent in October. In addition, the forecast for UK economic growth of 1.4 per cent in 2020 remained unchanged, while the UK growth forecast for 2021 was raised to 1.6 per cent.
This morning, the Bank of Japan announced an interest rate resolution to keep negative interest rates unchanged and 10-year bond yields near zero. At the same time, the Bank of Japan cut its overall economic forecast and its export and output estimates. The BoJ said it expected weak export performance for some time. Japan's economy has expanded moderately, but exports and output have been affected by a slowdown in overseas markets. Exports have shown some weakness recently. It looks as if the press conference held by Toshihiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, will be loud and clear again in the afternoon.
As early as the end of January, the German federal economy minister said that the German economy in 2019 forecast growth from 1.8% to 1.0%; On March 11, the Bank of France cut its forecast for first-quarter growth to 0.3% from 0.4%, and the European Central Bank slashed its forecast for 2019 to 1.1%. The United States is no exception, after a series of top investment banks cut their economic growth forecasts for the first quarter of 2019, including JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and so on. And all the Fed GDP models show that the U. S. economy will continue to decline in January!
Today is the last day of the two sessions, Premier Li Keqiang said at a Chinese and foreign press conference that the economy will not slide out of a reasonable range; value-added tax will be reduced on April 1, and social security rates will be reduced on May 1, pushing it away in an all-round way. The purpose of large-scale tax cuts and fees reduction is to move the interests of the government's stock and cut their own flesh. This is a reform with a blade inward and a strong man's wrist is broken. This year, the financing cost of small and micro enterprises will be reduced by another percentage point from last year's basis. The Prime Minister's concern about economic development is overstated, and his determination to promote reform and opening up and reduce taxes and fees is obvious to all.
Although 2019 will experience too many ups and downs, this is a good time to practice internal skills. If we can seize the opportunity, eliminate backward enterprises, really let the market allocate resources, and enable private enterprises to do practical things with peace of mind, Well, this year's difficulties are very meaningful. I am opposed to Keynesian monetary policy, and I do not advocate any more interest rate cuts and standard cuts. Countries should reflect on whether their expansionary monetary policy is really conducive to economic development, or whether the so-called economic development is a pile of money. We should listen to Friedman more.
