[SMM analysis] does Russia's ban on the export of non-ferrous metal ores become another support for zinc bulls?

SMM3, 15th, news:

Russia's Ministry of Industry and Trade plans to ban exports of non-ferrous metal ores and concentrate, as well as precious metal scrap, from Russia from May 1 to October 31, according to the Russian Customs online website. So if the plan takes effect, how will it affect the supply of zinc concentrate in China?

According to SMM and customs data, China's dependence on Russian zinc concentrate imports has gradually increased in the past three years, accounting for about 4 to 8 percent of the total imports. From the perspective of import volume, China's import of zinc concentrate from Russia in 2018 can reach 269000 physical tons, according to the rough estimate of 50% ore grade, the import volume of zinc concentrate can reach about 134500 metal tons.

So the import of zinc concentrate as an important raw material for domestic smelters, the Russian ban on the export of non-ferrous metal ores, on the domestic zinc concentrate supply, as well as the impact of zinc refining plants?

According to SMM research, refined zinc production in 2018 is 5.33 million tons, based on a recovery rate of 96.7%, a total of about 5.51 million metal tons of ore, then Russia forbids the export of zinc concentrate, then the domestic zinc concentrate supply will be narrowed by about 2%. So if the implementation or a certain degree of suppression on the processing fees of imported zinc concentrate, the domestic supply of zinc concentrate may also show a certain degree of narrowing, for zinc prices, it has also become a factor to further boost zinc prices.