SMM3 11: the latest news in the afternoon, Turkey's economic growth fell 2.4% in the fourth quarter of last year, officially entering a recession, this is Turkey's first recession in a decade.
In addition, the Bank of France has just cut its GDP growth rate to 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, after a previous forecast of 0.4%, indicating that the European economy will continue to decline in 2019. Coincidentally, after Friday's non-farm payrolls data hit a one-and-a-half-year low, the Federal Reserve released forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019:
The St. Louis Fed GDP model expects the US GDP to grow by 2.18 per cent in the first quarter, compared with a previous forecast of 2.32 per cent.
The Atlanta Fed GDP NowCast model expects GDP growth of 0.48% in the first quarter of 2019, in line with previous expectations.
The New York Fed GDP Nowcast model showed that GDP growth in the US was expected to be 1.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, compared with a previous forecast of 0.88 per cent.
Us GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 was still 2.6 per cent, beating market expectations, and according to the Fed's expectations, GDP growth in the first quarter will continue to decline. The United States experienced the longest government shutdown in US history in January, and 800000 federal employees were suspended from pay, which will inevitably affect the January retail sales figures released tonight, so it is inevitable that the US economy will be affected. Retail sales in the United States fell the most in more than nine years in December, and retail sales data in January were crucial, and if it freezes again, there are fears that the strength of the dollar will face a major challenge.