20190306: demand is lower than expected, black concussion is weak-Shanghai Metals Market

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20190306: demand is lower than expected, black concussion is weak

Translation 07:07:14PM Mar 06, 2019 Source:SMM

Volume and price: the overall volatility of black futures today is weak. Specifically, RB1905 fell slightly from yesterday to close at 3737 yuan / ton, HC1905 fell 69 yuan / ton to 3708 yuan / ton, and I1905 fell 12.5 yuan / ton to 610.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1905 handled 3.76 million transactions, an increase of 63000 to 2.42 million, and I1905 to 2 million, an increase of 18700 to 1.03 million. In terms of capital flows, the net inflow of funds from RB1905 today was 93.65 million yuan. I1905 net outflow of funds was 9.98 million yuan. Viewpoint: concussion arrangement. Today, RB1905 most of the time in the (3760, 3810) range of repeated shocks, the last session encountered selling pressure, increase the position of diving, breakdown of strong support position 3850, short-term trend on the short-term side of the short-term trend. I1905 also failed to continue yesterday's rebound and follow the callback, take out a long shadow line in the shade line, test the lower 600 integer gate support. Today, the United States issued a formal government announcement announcing that the suspension of the Sino-US trade war will be extended indefinitely, which means that the 10 per cent punitive tariff rate originally imposed on $200 billion worth of mainland products will not be raised until further notice. Nor will the scope of tariffs be expanded; The Tangshan people's Government issued a circular on extending the primary response to heavily polluted weather, referring to the fact that the emergency response to severely polluted weather will continue to be launched after 8: 00 on March 6. Subsequently, the Jiangsu Ecological Environment Department also issued the "Jiangsu Province heavy pollution Weather Emergency Plan"; It can be said that the news side is positive frequently, but we should also note that in recent days, the weather in the south of Rain Water has more hindered the construction of the construction site. After the pull-up in the previous two weeks, there are signs of contraction in the spot market demand. At one point on Friday, the building materials transaction reached 226000 tons, and yesterday, the figure has fallen back to 152200 tons, indicating that the release of demand has fallen short of market expectations. If the high position of the futures market is involved, the futures price will continue to rise under a lot of pressure. At present, the black multi-empty game is fierce, short-term repeated shocks will be inevitable, pay attention to downstream demand release and inventory accumulation.

Strategy: RB1905 contract range (3700, 3850); I1905 contract range (600630); early single temporary departure, waiting for the trend to be clear. Arbitrage continues to focus on thread 05 empty 10, iron ore 05 empty 09.

Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.

20190306: demand is lower than expected, black concussion is weak

Translation 07:07:14PM Mar 06, 2019 Source:SMM

Volume and price: the overall volatility of black futures today is weak. Specifically, RB1905 fell slightly from yesterday to close at 3737 yuan / ton, HC1905 fell 69 yuan / ton to 3708 yuan / ton, and I1905 fell 12.5 yuan / ton to 610.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1905 handled 3.76 million transactions, an increase of 63000 to 2.42 million, and I1905 to 2 million, an increase of 18700 to 1.03 million. In terms of capital flows, the net inflow of funds from RB1905 today was 93.65 million yuan. I1905 net outflow of funds was 9.98 million yuan. Viewpoint: concussion arrangement. Today, RB1905 most of the time in the (3760, 3810) range of repeated shocks, the last session encountered selling pressure, increase the position of diving, breakdown of strong support position 3850, short-term trend on the short-term side of the short-term trend. I1905 also failed to continue yesterday's rebound and follow the callback, take out a long shadow line in the shade line, test the lower 600 integer gate support. Today, the United States issued a formal government announcement announcing that the suspension of the Sino-US trade war will be extended indefinitely, which means that the 10 per cent punitive tariff rate originally imposed on $200 billion worth of mainland products will not be raised until further notice. Nor will the scope of tariffs be expanded; The Tangshan people's Government issued a circular on extending the primary response to heavily polluted weather, referring to the fact that the emergency response to severely polluted weather will continue to be launched after 8: 00 on March 6. Subsequently, the Jiangsu Ecological Environment Department also issued the "Jiangsu Province heavy pollution Weather Emergency Plan"; It can be said that the news side is positive frequently, but we should also note that in recent days, the weather in the south of Rain Water has more hindered the construction of the construction site. After the pull-up in the previous two weeks, there are signs of contraction in the spot market demand. At one point on Friday, the building materials transaction reached 226000 tons, and yesterday, the figure has fallen back to 152200 tons, indicating that the release of demand has fallen short of market expectations. If the high position of the futures market is involved, the futures price will continue to rise under a lot of pressure. At present, the black multi-empty game is fierce, short-term repeated shocks will be inevitable, pay attention to downstream demand release and inventory accumulation.

Strategy: RB1905 contract range (3700, 3850); I1905 contract range (600630); early single temporary departure, waiting for the trend to be clear. Arbitrage continues to focus on thread 05 empty 10, iron ore 05 empty 09.

Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.