Yesterday, online tax cuts are expected to enhance market speculation momentum, Shanghai aluminum night 1904 1905 basis quickly opened: Shanghai aluminum in the first half an hour to increase positions by more than 19000 hands, 1904 and 1905 contract price difference once opened to 150 yuan. Today, the government work report again mentioned deepening VAT reform, lowering the current tax rate of 16% in manufacturing and other industries to 13% this year, confirming VAT expectations, and opening the spread of market prices again.
As of 10:26 on March 5, 2019, the spread of Shanghai aluminum plate is 190 yuan / ton.
At present, the market expects VAT to start on May 1, 2019. what is the theoretical price difference between the 1904 contract and the 1905 contract? If the new VAT is officially implemented on May 1, then 1904 of the contracts delivered before May 1 will be delivered at the old tax rate. In theory, without changing the price of aluminum without tax, the tax price of 1904 of the contract increases, while the tax price of 1905 of the contract decreases. The previous tax rate was 16%. The daily closing price of Shanghai Aluminum 1904 as of March 4 was 13750 yuan / ton, then the excluding tax price was 13750 / (1-0.16) = 11853 yuan / ton. After the implementation of the new VAT standard, The market price is expected to change by 11853 * (1.16 1.13) = 355.6 yuan per ton.
In other words, regardless of the position cost, the theoretical price difference between 1904 and 1905 is 355.6 yuan / ton. According to past experience, there is a natural price difference of 70 yuan between the contracts adjacent to Shanghai Aluminium for two months (this part of the price difference includes the cost of capital and warehousing costs), deducting this part of 70 yuan. The theoretical price difference caused by the VAT reduction between 1904 and 1905 contracts is 285yuan / ton.
(SMM Liang Xuan)