SMM News: on February 5, the RBA announced an interest rate resolution, keeping the official cash interest rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent. The latest figures show that the monthly rate of retail sales and imports and exports in Australia changed from positive to negative in December.
On Feb. 6, RBA Chairman Lowe said in a speech that the possibilities for the next interest rate action are broadly balanced. The next move is likely to be a rate hike, but it could also be a rate cut, and the downside risks to the domestic economy have risen. This is in stark contrast to the previous message from the RBA and unexpected.
On the data side, the US trade deficit narrowed in November, ending a fifth straight rise in the trade deficit.
On Feb. 7, former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said in an interview that there are many signs that the U. S. economy is slowing, but still expects the U. S. economy to be solid in 2019. But if the global economic slowdown affects the US, the Fed's next step could be to end the rate hike and switch to a rate cut.
On the same day, the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points and adjusted its policy position from "calibrated tightening" to "neutral". The Bank of England kept interest rates low and cut its growth forecast for this year and next, leading to a cut in the chances of the Bank of England raising interest rates by the end of 2019.
On February 8th the Fed dove Brad said the Fed did not need to raise interest rates to meet its inflation target.
On the same day, the RBA issued a statement confirming that if the unemployment rate rises substantially and inflation is too low, the RBA may cut interest rates.
Germany's trade surplus shrank in December.
On Feb. 11, the UK announced that GDP, was 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, up from 1.5 per cent and 1.4 per cent for the whole of 2018, the lowest since 2012. Earlier, Germany reported GDP growth of 1.5% in 2018, the lowest in five years.
During this period, the dollar has completed an astonishing eight consecutive gains, but behind the eight consecutive gains is not the recovery of the US economy, but the result of the poor choice.
At present, there is a consensus that the global economy is in a general recession, and Fed officials are not optimistic about the prospect of raising interest rates in 2019. At one point, there was a dove within the Federal Reserve, which put a lot of pressure on the dollar. Fortunately, during the Spring Festival, From Australia to Europe, officials have softened, admitting that risk is rising and thus changing the outlook for its monetary policy. India cannot even hold up for a direct interest rate cut, making the dollar the strongest currency.
Looking at the world, the performance of the major economies is lacklustre. Trade protection, nationalism and regional conflicts darken the already challenging global economic outlook if the global economy continues to deteriorate in 2019. Interest rate cuts are bound to kick off around the world, which is not good for the world.