SMM1, 31 March: the Federal Reserve announced early this morning that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged, while Powell said that the committee is assessing the appropriate time to stop shrinking the table and will finalize the plan at future meetings. This could lead to a faster process of normalizing portfolio size, with the final balance sheet larger than previously expected.
As soon as the Fed's dovish news came out, the dollar index fell more on the same day, US Treasury yields fell, and spot gold rose in the short term, hitting as high as $1317. Equally impressive was the renminbi, which rose above 1700 points since January, the biggest increase in the past year. Such a rare performance of the renminbi is due to the weakness of the dollar, especially at a time when there is growing optimism about the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates and growing concerns about a strong dollar.
The RMB approached the 7 mark several times last year, that is, it did not break 7, and at the height of the bears' attack, the RMB withstood the pressure and did not allow the international short to succeed. In fact, the Fed already reluctantly raised interest rates in December, and the dollar can be said to be the end of Qiannu. At that time, many Fed officials voted against it, and the rate increase was almost unanimously approved at the meeting in September. The two meetings contrasted sharply, and the best time for the US economy to grow was in the second quarter, when GDP hit a staggering 4.2 per cent. In other words, the US economy began to decline gradually in the second half of 2018, especially in the last quarter, from the collapse of oil prices in October, although employment is still very full. But GDP, manufacturing, consumer confidence, inflation and other data are gradually falling, and the stock market is even more like a roller coaster. First, Trump was unable to sit still, frequently shelling Powell and the Federal Reserve, and then as the economic data worsened, Fed officials have delivered dovish speeches saying that they have to be patient with raising interest rates. By 2019, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates only one or two times, some forecasts not to raise interest rates, and some even predict that interest rates will be cut. And the forecast contraction table will stop soon. These are not groundless, the world economy is going down, it is really difficult for the United States to outshine others, and the cost of forcing interest rate hikes will be higher and higher, at a time when it is necessary to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.
Money is an easy to put difficult to collect things, release water when everyone is happy, once to take back it is very difficult, everyone is sad, are not happy, the resistance is also very great. The inability to repair the balance sheet will give the United States a lump in its throat, the United States will appear powerless in the face of the crisis, and it may not be that simple for the United States to get through the difficult year of 2019.