[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]-Shanghai Metals Market

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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]

Translation 09:34:39AM Jan 25, 2019 Source:Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network

SMM, January 25 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

Zinc morning meeting: macro yesterday: overnight Trump and the Democratic Party proposed a plan to open the government has not been approved by the Senate, the government shutdown will continue to set a new record; U. S. Secretary Ross said China and the United States "still have a long way to go" to resolve their differences, high-level consultations are not variable and crucial, and market sentiment tends to be cautious. Overnight, the people's Bank of China created a central bank paper swap tool to encourage banks to replenish capital by issuing sustainable bonds to further finance the weak economy. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review: Shanghai: smelter normal shipment, today's long single demand significantly weakened, the high zinc market is mainly shipping, but due to risk control considerations, most of the handover sides take the average price of SMM as the benchmark quotation. The average price or average price quoted in the current month is-10, and the average price quoted next month is-10 or-20, contributing to the transaction of major markets. The quoted price of Shengtianshui is very few, and some traders have reduced the transaction from about 300 yuan per ton to 250 yuan per ton, while some traders have actively adjusted the price to promote the transaction. There was little feedback that the quotation was rapidly lowered to about 200 yuan per ton in that month. Next month's price adjustment to 180 yuan / ton of water is also limited, the overall market sentiment tends to be cautious. Entering the second trading period, the market demand for receiving goods is further weakened, the market is still mainly shipping, but the trading is light, the transaction is few, the overall transaction is light, the transaction volume is stable compared with yesterday. Guangdong: refinery normal shipment, early in the morning, the market price of Shengtie water is still relatively confused, sporadic shipment, quoted in the average price of-20, around 30, contribute to a small number of transactions. Entering the second trading period, the market quotation first increased the water supply of the Shanghai Zinc 1903 contract by around 260yuan / ton, but under the weakening of downstream demand, it was difficult to conclude a deal. The holder was bearish on the subsequent increase in water supply and continued to adjust the price of the goods. Rising water fell back to the Shanghai zinc 1903 contract rising water 240 yuan / ton, but there is still no obvious receiver, the overall trading today is flat, basically flat yesterday. Tianjin: refinery normal shipment, traders actively flick goods, generally reported in the vicinity of the 1902 contract flat water, another Zijin brand recent volume is not much, the holder slightly higher price, quoted in the 1902 contract liter water around 100 yuan / ton. In terms of consumption, the downstream is close to the holiday, the demand is further diluted, only rigid demand procurement, the market transaction atmosphere is cold, the overall transaction is basically flat yesterday. Refined zinc imports: according to the latest customs data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of zinc ingots in December was 93800 tons, down 17.4 percent from the previous month and 7.02 percent from the same period last year. The top five countries for zinc ingots imported in December were Spain (44 per cent), Belgium (13 per cent), Australia (12 per cent), Kazakhstan (11 per cent) and South Korea (7 per cent). Compared with November, imports from Spain and Belgium rose further, while imports from duty-free countries South Korea and Australia fell sharply. For the whole of 2018, refined zinc imports totaled 715400 tons, up 5.8 per cent from the same period last year. For the whole of 2018, the top five countries imported were Australia (26 per cent), South Korea (20 per cent), Kazakhstan (16 per cent), Spain (15 per cent) and Kazakhstan (4 per cent). In 2017, it was Australia (27 per cent), Spain (27 per cent), India (13 per cent), Kazakhstan (9 per cent) and South Korea (8 per cent). Zinc concentrate imports: according to the latest customs data, the import of zinc concentrate in 2018 was 245600 tons (physical tons), a decrease of 58300 tons (physical tons) compared with the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2018 was 2.9694 million tons (physical tons), an increase of 21.5 per cent over the same period last year. For the whole year, by country, Australia imported a total of 852800 physical tons, accounting for 28.7 percent of the total zinc concentrate imports in 2018, ranking first, while Peru imported a cumulative total of 606500 physical tons. It accounted for 20.4% of the total zinc concentrate imports in 2018, ranking second, while Russia imported a total of 266500 physical tons, accounting for 9% of the total zinc concentrate imports in 2018, ranking third. Zinc price: the positive center of gravity of the seventh consecutive record of zinc has moved up smoothly, and the support of supply worries to zinc price has not been weakened, but we should pay attention to the emotional disturbance of the macro situation to investors and operate cautiously within a day. Shanghai zinc tightly along the Brin Road on the track to establish a finishing platform, although the supply of worry has become an effective boost, but consumption further stagnation superimposed long holiday is coming, bulls are also cautious, within days or horizontal finishing. Today, it is expected that the Shanghai Zinc 1903 contract is expected to run around 21400 to 21800 yuan / ton within a day, and zinc is expected to run around US $2590 to US $2640 per ton in the next few days, the Shanghai Zinc 1903 contract is expected to run around 21400 to 21800 yuan per ton in the next day. Material 0 # the current zinc fell by 50%, it is recommended to wait and see downstream for a while.

Key Words:  Zinc  price  inventory  price forecast  output 

[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]

Translation 09:34:39AM Jan 25, 2019 Source:Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network

SMM, January 25 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

Zinc morning meeting: macro yesterday: overnight Trump and the Democratic Party proposed a plan to open the government has not been approved by the Senate, the government shutdown will continue to set a new record; U. S. Secretary Ross said China and the United States "still have a long way to go" to resolve their differences, high-level consultations are not variable and crucial, and market sentiment tends to be cautious. Overnight, the people's Bank of China created a central bank paper swap tool to encourage banks to replenish capital by issuing sustainable bonds to further finance the weak economy. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review: Shanghai: smelter normal shipment, today's long single demand significantly weakened, the high zinc market is mainly shipping, but due to risk control considerations, most of the handover sides take the average price of SMM as the benchmark quotation. The average price or average price quoted in the current month is-10, and the average price quoted next month is-10 or-20, contributing to the transaction of major markets. The quoted price of Shengtianshui is very few, and some traders have reduced the transaction from about 300 yuan per ton to 250 yuan per ton, while some traders have actively adjusted the price to promote the transaction. There was little feedback that the quotation was rapidly lowered to about 200 yuan per ton in that month. Next month's price adjustment to 180 yuan / ton of water is also limited, the overall market sentiment tends to be cautious. Entering the second trading period, the market demand for receiving goods is further weakened, the market is still mainly shipping, but the trading is light, the transaction is few, the overall transaction is light, the transaction volume is stable compared with yesterday. Guangdong: refinery normal shipment, early in the morning, the market price of Shengtie water is still relatively confused, sporadic shipment, quoted in the average price of-20, around 30, contribute to a small number of transactions. Entering the second trading period, the market quotation first increased the water supply of the Shanghai Zinc 1903 contract by around 260yuan / ton, but under the weakening of downstream demand, it was difficult to conclude a deal. The holder was bearish on the subsequent increase in water supply and continued to adjust the price of the goods. Rising water fell back to the Shanghai zinc 1903 contract rising water 240 yuan / ton, but there is still no obvious receiver, the overall trading today is flat, basically flat yesterday. Tianjin: refinery normal shipment, traders actively flick goods, generally reported in the vicinity of the 1902 contract flat water, another Zijin brand recent volume is not much, the holder slightly higher price, quoted in the 1902 contract liter water around 100 yuan / ton. In terms of consumption, the downstream is close to the holiday, the demand is further diluted, only rigid demand procurement, the market transaction atmosphere is cold, the overall transaction is basically flat yesterday. Refined zinc imports: according to the latest customs data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of zinc ingots in December was 93800 tons, down 17.4 percent from the previous month and 7.02 percent from the same period last year. The top five countries for zinc ingots imported in December were Spain (44 per cent), Belgium (13 per cent), Australia (12 per cent), Kazakhstan (11 per cent) and South Korea (7 per cent). Compared with November, imports from Spain and Belgium rose further, while imports from duty-free countries South Korea and Australia fell sharply. For the whole of 2018, refined zinc imports totaled 715400 tons, up 5.8 per cent from the same period last year. For the whole of 2018, the top five countries imported were Australia (26 per cent), South Korea (20 per cent), Kazakhstan (16 per cent), Spain (15 per cent) and Kazakhstan (4 per cent). In 2017, it was Australia (27 per cent), Spain (27 per cent), India (13 per cent), Kazakhstan (9 per cent) and South Korea (8 per cent). Zinc concentrate imports: according to the latest customs data, the import of zinc concentrate in 2018 was 245600 tons (physical tons), a decrease of 58300 tons (physical tons) compared with the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2018 was 2.9694 million tons (physical tons), an increase of 21.5 per cent over the same period last year. For the whole year, by country, Australia imported a total of 852800 physical tons, accounting for 28.7 percent of the total zinc concentrate imports in 2018, ranking first, while Peru imported a cumulative total of 606500 physical tons. It accounted for 20.4% of the total zinc concentrate imports in 2018, ranking second, while Russia imported a total of 266500 physical tons, accounting for 9% of the total zinc concentrate imports in 2018, ranking third. Zinc price: the positive center of gravity of the seventh consecutive record of zinc has moved up smoothly, and the support of supply worries to zinc price has not been weakened, but we should pay attention to the emotional disturbance of the macro situation to investors and operate cautiously within a day. Shanghai zinc tightly along the Brin Road on the track to establish a finishing platform, although the supply of worry has become an effective boost, but consumption further stagnation superimposed long holiday is coming, bulls are also cautious, within days or horizontal finishing. Today, it is expected that the Shanghai Zinc 1903 contract is expected to run around 21400 to 21800 yuan / ton within a day, and zinc is expected to run around US $2590 to US $2640 per ton in the next few days, the Shanghai Zinc 1903 contract is expected to run around 21400 to 21800 yuan per ton in the next day. Material 0 # the current zinc fell by 50%, it is recommended to wait and see downstream for a while.

Key Words:  Zinc  price  inventory  price forecast  output