SMM1, 16 March: yesterday, the central bank released financial statistics for December 2018, which showed that the increase in social finance in December of 18 was 1.59 trillion, while M2 growth rate was only 8.1%.

The figure above shows the increase in social finance for the whole year of 2018, of which it is worth noting that:

Off-balance sheet loans for the whole year decreased by 1.61 trillion, 2.38 trillion more than the same period last year;

Credit fell by 690.1 billion, or 2.95 trillion more than the same period last year;

The number of undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 634.3 billion, 1.17 trillion more than the same period last year;

The amount of special debt of some local governments is 211 billion less than that of the same period last year.

Stock financing was 360.6 billion, 515.3 billion less than the same period last year.

In 2018, off-balance-sheet loans shrank by 6.5 trillion, local governments and real enterprises raised 726.3 billion less, and the cumulative increase in social and financial growth was 19.26 trillion, 3.14 trillion less than the previous year.

All right! Off-balance-sheet shrinkage is the main reason for the difficulty of financing the real economy! Off-balance sheet loans are also the main objectives of strong financial regulation, and off-balance sheet loans are closely related to the capital chain of most small and medium-sized enterprises.

At the same time as the community also announced the M2 growth rate of broad money. It's at an all-time low.

M0 refers to the cash in circulation in society, M1 refers to M0 + bank demand deposit, M2 is M1 + bank time deposit. As mentioned earlier, with the removal of the bar and the superposition of intensive interest rate increases in the United States, China not only did not raise interest rates, but lowered the rate four times last year. The MLF released 2.3 trillion and the tax cut reached 1.3 trillion, effectively hedging the risks brought about by partial deleveraging and capital outflows. China's monetary policy should be relatively loose, but the M2 growth rate continues to decline, always below 9%. The main reason may be that the off-balance sheet financing has dropped too much, the monetary multiplier has not been magnified, and the M1 growth rate has plummeted. The difference between M2 and M1 scissors is also magnifying, indicating that the real economy tends to be cautious and that people prefer to deposit more than cash.

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