SMM, Jan.11: it is surprising that opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of the Congo won last month's presidential election, although his victory was undermined by rival claims that the election was rigged.
The analysis shows that in the future, the DRC government is likely to amend the new mining law, especially the provisions related to royalties and tax increases, which is good for mining companies such as Glencore and Barrick.
Here are the views of some institutions:
Verisk Maplecroft: 's new mining law in the Congo becomes "anti-investment"
Indigo Ellis, chief analyst in the Congo, said the results were preliminary, so "many mining investors may have to wait at least two to three months to see the results of the transition period." On the campaign trail, Mr Tshisekedi argued quite openly that raising taxes and royalties in the new mining law was too much, even calling it "anti-investment", but that his power to implement pro-investor measures was likely to be limited. At least in the early stages.
Barrick Gold: it's too early to say
It is a bit early to say; we believe that the electoral process is progressing smoothly and that it is a good thing to see the election results announced that people accept the results of the elections, which means that the democratic process is playing a role, which is a positive side. "Tshisekedi is an experienced politician, but you have to remember that in the Congo, the government is not just a political party, but a coalition. "one of the most important positions will be Minister of Mining, which may not continue, but it is too early to draw conclusions."
African risk Consulting: mining Policy is unlikely to change
Senior analyst Sean Robert Dussie (Shawn Robert Duthie) said there was speculation that Tshisekedi's victory might be part of an agreement with outgoing President Joseph Kabiyra (Joseph Kabila). That means the new president may not challenge the status quo. "I do not think there will be a major change in mining policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as Tshisekedi is unlikely to be willing to withdraw much of the work done by the previous Government."
RBC investment bank (RBC Capital Markets): mining law may be amended
"the Democratic Republic of the Congo has a chance to finally emerge from a period of serious corruption and changes in mining regulations," said Taylor Broda (Tyler Broda), a mining analyst. The end of Kabiyra's leadership "could lead to a revision of last year's controversial mining code".
(Liberum Capital): supply risk of Lieberon Investment Bank
Analyst Ben Davis (Ben Davis) said the Congo was "an important producer of copper and cobalt, a result that could lead to disruptions in production", however, the prices of copper and cobalt "are likely to rise globally to offset this impact".
BMO investment bank (BMO Capital Markets): is less likely to be interrupted
Colin Hamilton (Colin Hamilton), a mining analyst, said the result "will be seen as a surprise after delaying a few votes". "this should reduce the likelihood of civil unrest and potential disruptions in imports of copper and cobalt from China."
