This week, the screw thread stock increased by 285500 tons (+ 8.5 per cent compared with the previous month), and the factory warehouse decreased by 198900 tons (- 8.8 per cent). The national thread inventory pressure has gradually shifted from steel mills to the market. The total thread inventory in China increased slightly by 86600 tons (month-on-month ratio + 1.6), and the total accumulation rate was not as expected.
As shown in the chart below, the average weekly accumulation rate of inventory since the six weeks before the Spring Festival in 2019 is 205300 tons, which is less than the five-week inventory accumulation rate before and after the Spring Festival in previous years. According to the survey, the current environmental protection and production restrictions are not as strong as last year, and the current weekly thread production is about 100000 tons higher than that of the same period last year. Assuming the demand is consistent before and after the Spring Festival, the weekly accumulation rate of inventory before and after the Spring Festival in 2019 is about 100000 higher than that in 2018. According to historical data from SMM Steel, inventories accumulated an average of 730000 tons per week before and after the Spring Festival in 2018. If calculated according to the 830000-ton forecast in 2019, inventories will reach 12.12 million tons in the five weeks after the holiday, still less than the same period last year.
Overall, the current national thread inventory is still relatively low, coupled with the current inventory accumulation rate is also at a low level in nearly 4 years, after-holiday inventory accumulation or less than the market pessimistic expectations, but also need to be treated with caution.
Consult information consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781