SMM, January 10-details of the Sino-US trade negotiations have not yet been clearly announced, optimism in the financial markets has faded, domestic commodity shocks have turned down on Thursday, black system declines have widened, manganese silicon and coke have closed negative for the third day in a row, and iron ore has also fallen by more than 1 per cent. The colored plate oscillates in a narrow range.
China's CPI in December was 1.9% year-on-year, the lowest since June 2018. PPI rose just 0.9 per cent in December from a year earlier, the lowest level since September 2016. Market analysis shows that the downward trend of PPI is obvious, in 2019 do not rule out the re-emergence of monthly negative value, industrial deflation is likely to reproduce, will greatly affect the profits and employment of upstream enterprises.
Representatives of China and the United States concluded three days of vice-ministerial consultations on economic and trade issues on Wednesday, and neither side disclosed specific details of the outcome of the consultations, although there have been some positive developments in the Sino-US trade negotiations. However, the market is still not fully confident that the Sino-US trade dispute will soon be over, the financial market rally has paused, and the market is waiting for more news about the Sino-US trade negotiations. In the evening, pay attention to the U. S. jobless claims data, in addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Washington Economic Club.
In terms of capital flows today
In terms of capital flows, funds continued to flow into the domestic commodity market, and the black chain index, which had been silent for a few days, bloomed again, attracting 578 million funds to enter the market, of which the thread only got 464 million. Non-ferrous plate performance has been mediocre in recent days, encountered 209 million funds abandoned.
A brief comment by SMM analyst on January 10th
Copper: today, the Shanghai Copper 1903 contract opened at 47540 yuan / ton this morning. After the opening, the copper price quickly fell to a low of 47420 yuan / ton in the daily market. After the short-term bottom hit, Shanghai Copper maintained a concussive pull-up posture. In the afternoon, it reached 47580 yuan / ton above the daily average. Late trading, Shanghai copper failed to be supported by the daily average, short positions entered the market, and then copper prices fell again to an intraday low of 47450 yuan / ton, closing slightly higher, closing price 47510 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton, down 0.6%. The volume of the main contract increased by 48492 to 185000, and the position increased by 556 to 183000. Today, 1901 contract position decreased by 5610 to 14510, while 1904 and 1905 contract position increased by 4558, of which 1904 contract position increased by 3148. Today, the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 214 to 499000, with short positions mainly increasing. Shanghai copper main body within the day, the center of gravity and yesterday changed little, KDJ index J line index began to turn, need to guard against short high entry. In the evening, waiting for the guidance of the outside market, pay attention to the trend of long and short, and test whether the main force of Shanghai copper can continue to hold 47500 yuan / ton at night.
Aluminum: the 1903 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company was opened at 13450 yuan / ton in the morning. At the beginning of trading, there was a large increase in short positions, and nearly 1800 positions were increased within 10 minutes. Shanghai Aluminum went through two big Yin lines one after another, stabilized at 13405 yuan / ton line, and reached 13395 yuan / ton as low as possible. Because the 5 / 10 EMA still has certain support, Shanghai Aluminum then began to float to explore the upper space, blocked by the 60-day EMA stopped at 13435 yuan / ton, the end of the plate around 13430 yuan / ton first line shock, the low hit 13405 yuan / ton, the daily market finally closed at 13405 yuan / ton. It fell 5 yuan per ton, or 0.04 percent, and trading volume fell 23266 hands to 127000 hands, and position volume increased 3878 hands to 267000 hands, recording a small negative line. So far, the Shanghai Aluminum Day K line has been in a horizontal state below the 10-day moving average for a week in a row. As the macro news during the day is mostly empty and intertwined, and its own fundamentals have not improved, it is still weak. The trend of Shanghai Aluminum is entangled in the day, and it does not show an obvious trend of development. It is expected to continue to test the size of the upper and lower space in the evening. In the evening, we will continue to pay attention to the release of news related to the Sino-US consultations and the change of long and short positions.
Lead: within a day, the Shanghai lead 1902 contract was opened at 17465 yuan / ton, the air space increased and decreased at the beginning of the day, and the Shanghai lead shock went down to 17395 yuan / ton. Later, after entering the market at a low price, Shanghai lead rebounded to 17430 yuan / ton first-line concussion, approaching the close and leaving the market at a short profit. Shanghai lead rose slightly, finally closing at 17450 yuan per ton, down 85 yuan per ton, down 0.48 percent, and reducing its position by 942 hands to 57954 hands. Shanghai lead closed in the negative line, the continuation of the consolidation trend, bearish atmosphere shrouded the market, some bulls safe to leave the market, coupled with the downstream pre-festival reserve situation is not as expected, Shanghai lead trend is difficult to say for the better, the night probability will be below the 5-day moving average to maintain a weak trend.
Zinc: Shanghai zinc main 1903 contract opened at 20535 yuan / ton, short position increased at the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc shock down 20400 yuan / ton, then only fell back to fill part of the decline, but by the upper daily average suppression, only 20500 yuan / ton, that is, shock lower. Down 20375 yuan / ton, followed by the 5th EMA support strength, Shanghai zinc plate tail slightly rose. Trading volume decreased by 30104 hands to 302000 hands, while position increased by 3976 hands to 187000 hands. Shanghai zinc fluctuated in the multi-way moving average, funds withdrew from Shanghai zinc within a day, and the contracts in the same month and the following month reduced their positions by more than 15000 hands, investment sentiment was still weak and risk aversion, and the negative factors of weak fundamental consumption gradually penetrated into market sentiment. Superimposed European trading period Lun zinc fell rapidly, Shanghai zinc may be dragged down in the evening, again below the 5-day EMA support.
Nickel: Shanghai nickel 1905 opened at 91450 yuan / ton today. At the beginning of the day, the long position decreased, the Shanghai nickel shock fell, the bottom was 91090 yuan / ton, the lower 91000 yuan / ton gate support, and then the bulls increased their positions. Shanghai nickel concussion rose to the afternoon, touching 91880 yuan / ton. Above the pressure of 92000 yuan / ton gate, bulls lack of confidence, profit-taking, Shanghai nickel shock fell to near the daily average, near the close, Shanghai nickel slightly up, closing at 91560 yuan / ton. Throughout the day, Shanghai nickel main contract 1905 closed at the Xiaoyin line. The settlement price rose 50 yuan per ton, or 0.05 percent, from the previous day. Trading volume was reduced by 140000 hands to 421000 hands, and positions by 7000 hands to 283000 hands. The daily line technology KDJ opens upward, the MACD red column becomes longer. Whether Shanghai nickel can break through the 92000 yuan / ton barrier at night. Evening should pay attention to the Federal Reserve FOMC released the minutes of the December 2018 monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank released the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting.
Tin: Shanghai tin main 1905 contract, last night after the opening of 146860 yuan / ton, the price around the daily average of 146600 yuan / ton near a narrow range of shock finishing. Prices then fell all the way to an intraday low of 146200 yuan per ton. Prices bottomed out to $146700 a tonne early this morning. After the opening of 146700 yuan / ton this morning, the price all the way down, last night's intraday low of 146200 yuan / ton, and then the bottom recovered to a narrow range of consolidation near the opening price. In late trading, prices fell back again, closing at 146350 yuan per ton, down 550 yuan per ton, or 0.37 per cent. The trading volume was 12908, a decrease of 6850. The number of positions was reduced by 36036 hands. Following yesterday's Changyang line rose, today due to the departure of the bulls, the overall downward trend, to the negative line closed, standing above the 5-20 EMA, but by the upper 40-day EMA suppression. In the future, we will see whether the Shanghai tin price can get rid of the suppression of the previous platform high of 147000 yuan / ton and the 40-60 daily moving average. In the near future, we can focus on the amount of social financing in China in December (11115) and the annual rate of M2 money supply in China in December (111115).
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