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SMM China basic Metals production data released in December
Jan 8,2019 17:57CST
SMM monthly production data of basic metals in China is scheduled to be released around the 8th of each month. The purpose of this data is to explore the real fundamental situation from the essence, and to set aside the illusion of the capital market for industrial chain people and investors. More clearly grasp the future trend of the non-ferrous market.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Summary of basic Metal production in China in December 2018

In December (31 days), China's alumina (metallurgical grade) production was 6.179 million tons, an increase of 11.22 percent over the same period last year, and the average daily output was 199000 tons, down 1.69 percent from the previous month. China's total alumina production in January-December 2018 was 70.479 million tons, up 3.01 per cent from a year earlier.

In December, domestic alumina enterprises produced more impulses, but the average daily output of the industry fell month-on-month. The reasons are as follows: 1) during the heating season, the supply of natural gas in the northern region is tight, and some alumina plants have affected some of their production due to natural gas supply problems. 2) Henan weather red warning, the local aluminum oxide plant due to environmental protection requirements of the output has varying degrees of impact. 3) the intensity of environmental protection in Shanxi area has been improved, and the roaster production of some alumina plants is not smooth. At the same time, some alumina plants have carried out the transformation of the ultra-low emission limit of the generator set, which is expected to affect the production capacity of 800000 tons and the time period of 3 months. 4) the maintenance of baking furnace in alumina plant in southwest China has affected part of the output.

It is estimated that in January 2019 (31 days), China's alumina production will be 6.201 million tons, with a daily average of 200000 tons. The increase in daily average output will mainly come from two aspects: one is the end of the maintenance of the roaster in the alumina plant in southwest China. On the other hand, the capacity release of alumina plants in Shanxi area after the completion of environmental protection transformation.

Electrolytic aluminum

In December (31 days), the national electrolytic aluminum output was 2.992 million tons, down 0.3 percent from the same period last year, and the total electrolytic aluminum output in China in 2018 was 36.117 million tons, down 0.6 percent from the same period last year.

Affected by the centralized production reduction of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises in December, including some high-cost enterprises in Shandong, Gansu, Shanxi, Ningxia, Henan and other provinces, the national production capacity has been reduced by more than 3 million tons per year until the end of December. The domestic operating capacity has dropped to 36.06 million tons per year, 1.64 million tons per year less than the maximum operating capacity at the end of June. By the end of December, the domestic electrolytic production capacity was 42.12 million tons / year, and the average operating rate of the whole industry was 85.6%. It is worth noting that after entering January 2019, the investment of new production capacity is still continuing, including Shaanxi Meixin, Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan, Inner Mongolia Guyang, Guangxi hundred Minerals, Yunnan Aluminum and other production capacity continues to be added, and whether the scale of production reduction can be expanded remains to be seen.

Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is expected to be 3.008 million tons in January 2019, up 0.5 per cent from the previous month and down 0.1 per cent from the same period last year.

Primary lead

In December 2018, the production of primary lead was 274000 tons, up 3.74 percent from the previous month, up 3.49 percent from the same period last year, and the cumulative output for the whole of 2018 was 2.9953 million tons, down 8.57 percent from the same period last year.

In December, the country's primary lead production increased by nearly 10,000 tons compared with November, in line with the expectations of the previous report. According to SMM research, December is the last month of 2018, primary lead smelting enterprises in order to sprint annual production and sales, generally high enthusiasm to start work. During this period, such as Shandong, Henan and other places have smelting enterprises maintenance end, and return to the normal output, so the overall output increased significantly. Looking forward to January, apart from the fact that some primary lead smelting enterprises in Yunnan are scheduled to start maintenance in late January, other enterprises will produce more normally, and due to the entry of January 2019, the situation of overloaded production in refineries due to the impulse at the end of the year eased last month. And gradually return to the normal operating rate, so this month's output has declined. In addition, some enterprises in Hunan and Yunnan are scheduled to be overhauled during the Spring Festival.

SMM expects primary lead production to fall by 3700 tons to 271000 tons in January.

Refined zinc

In December 2018, SMM China produced 448400 tons of refined zinc, down 1.74 percent from the previous month and 7.29 percent from the same period last year.

From January to December, the cumulative output was 5.331 million tons, down 2.43 per cent from the same period last year.

In December, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to rise, the profits of smelters further increased, and the enthusiasm of refineries was stimulated. Nearly 15 refineries in the survey sample slightly increased their output on the original basis. The month-on-month increment ranges from a few hundred tons to a little over a thousand tons. However, the national output did not increase but decreased, mainly because of the relocation of Zhuzhou smelter, the old plant was gradually shut down in December, and the new plant was gradually ignited. In the process, the self-produced part was reduced more, far up to the increment within the month. And some smelters due to the completion of the annual plan, the corresponding reduction in production. Overall, smelter output fell rather than increased in December.

In January, at the beginning of the new year, most refineries returned and maintained monthly normal planned production. However, on the reduction, Zhuzhou smelting relocation impact, in January to further reduce its own output; and Hechi south due to electricity and other problems, there will be a certain reduction in production and maintenance in January.

According to the enterprise production plan, domestic refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 17300 tons to 431200 tons in January compared with December, a decrease of 3.86 per cent from the previous month.

Electrolytic nickel

In December, the national natural monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 15800 tons, an increase of 4.45 percent over the same period last year, and the cumulative output from January to December was 150200 tons, down 6.08 percent from the same period last year.

In December, the national electrolytic nickel production increased by 6.92% compared with November, mainly due to the last month of the end of the year, electrolytic nickel producers increased production efforts, the end of the year to rush sales, in order to meet the full-year production plan.

According to a preliminary SMM survey, due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday and the traditional off-season consumption in January, electrolytic nickel producers will reduce electrolytic nickel production to a certain extent, and the national output in January is expected to be about 21% lower than that in December.

Nickel pig iron

In December, the national nickel pig iron fell 0.63 per cent to 41500 nickel tons, an increase of 2.65 per cent over the same period last year. From January to December, the national output of nickel pig iron was 457000 nickel tons, an increase of 7.92 per cent over the same period last year.

In terms of taste, the production of high nickel pig iron in December was basically flat compared with November, with a small increase of 0.11 percent to 38100 nickel tons. On the one hand, some areas in Inner Mongolia were affected by power restrictions, and the operating rate decreased; on the other hand, the environmental protection in Liaoning ended in early December. The output was further released and, taken together, was basically flat. In December, the production of low nickel pig iron fell 8.29% from a month earlier to 3400 nickel tons, mainly due to the suspension of the production of low nickel pig iron in an integrated stainless steel plant in East China.

In January, the national nickel pig iron production is expected to increase by 0.88 per cent to 41800 nickel tons, which is basically the same as in December, while the high nickel pig iron production is expected to increase by 0.95 per cent to 38500 nickel tons, and the low nickel pig iron production is expected to be unchanged from December to 3400 nickel tons.

Nickel sulfate

In December, China produced 9262 tons of nickel sulfate and 42100 tons in kind. In 2018, China produced 99200 tons of nickel sulfate and 451100 tons in kind.

In December, the yield increased by 3.57% compared with the previous month, and the increment was mainly contributed by the amount of nickel sulfate produced by the integration of the precursor. There was still a certain profit in the production of nickel sulfate due to the dissolution of nickel bean / powder, and the yield of the ternary precursor was still in the rising channel at the end of the year. The precursor plant adopts autolysis to produce nickel sulfate liquid as the mainstream mode. From December last year to January this year, due to the Spring Festival stock of downstream ternary precursor factories, the demand for nickel sulfate in China's nickel sulfate market has improved, while the supply of nickel sulfate has not increased significantly for the time being, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate market is tight and balanced. The Caofeidian nickel sulfate project, which is concerned by the market, has an annual production capacity of about 50,000 tons in the first phase, which has been put into production in late December. At present, the output has been produced, but the goods have not been shipped out for the time being due to the adjustment of quality and other factors. An integrated ternary precursor project is being built.

SMM understands that in 2019, nickel sulfate has an export plan before the construction of the precursor project is completed.

Refined tin

Refined tin production in December was 12020 tons, up 6.6 per cent from November.

In late December, Yunxi Company resumed some production, and the output of some enterprises in Yunnan and Guangxi rebounded slightly, contributing to the output growth. In addition, individual companies that raised production as a result of the sharp rise in tin prices in November adjusted production to normal levels in December.

The production of refined tin is expected to be about 13000 tons in January, and Yunxi will further resume production, when it will increase the total output of research.

Research methodology:

1) Research methods

SMM production survey is conducted by professional analysts by telephone, field research and other methods, regular monthly tracking of Chinese metal production enterprises, and based on this to issue a report on China's metal production.

In the process of research, ensure the basic coverage ratio of the sample, and continue to expand; at the same time, consider the production capacity scale, regional distribution, enterprise nature and other detailed factors to reasonably select and distribute the sample, so that each itemized data is representative.

The production data include last month's output (initial value), the previous month's output (revised value) and the forecast for the current month's production. In general, SMM rarely modifies the output, that is, the correction value = the initial value, but still retains the possibility of correction.

Before the 10th of each month, it was released through the official website of Shanghai Nonferrous Network (www.smm.cn), APP "Palm Colored", WeChat Subscription account (Today Colored), Mobile phone Station (m.smm.cn) and other official channels.

2) sample introduction

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