SMM1, July 7: Fitch (Fitch Solutions) 's latest copper supply and demand outlook shows that global refined copper consumption will grow steadily in the next few years, driven by demand from the power industry, rising (EV) production of electric vehicles and good prospects for global economic growth. But Fitch warned that the global copper market would continue to be in short supply in the coming years as global copper consumption would continue to outpace supply growth, driven by growth in China's power and infrastructure industries and electric vehicle production. Global demand for refined copper will exceed production and there will be shortages in the next few years, according to data released by Fitch. Fitch clearly forecasts that the global refined copper balance will be 247000 tons short by 2018 and will be in short supply until 2021.
In the short term, Fitch expects the Chinese economy to cool down in 2019 as investment activity slows as credit and fiscal spending growth slows.
Chile, the world's second-largest refined copper producer, will benefit from strong copper prices and the foreign investment-focused agenda of Chilean President Sebastian Pinera (Sebastian Pinera). Fitch noted that Chile's Codelco produced 875000 tons of copper a year in the first half of 2018, up 2 per cent from a year earlier, and expects refined copper production to return to growth due to rising prices and solid project operations.
Supported by government efforts to increase production and reduce production costs, India is expected to become a star in the growth phase of global copper production. Fitch expects India's refined copper production to rise to 1.8 million tons by 2027, up from 925000 tons in 2018, an average annual growth rate of 7.3 per cent. Fitch noted that one downside risk was protests, some of which were violent, and the largest copper smelter in the south, which was subsequently shut down by (Vedanta Resources), a Vedanta resources company, on environmental grounds. Fitch (Fitch) has kept a low profile of the outlook for copper demand growth in the US in the coming years because it believes some of President Trump's economic plans will fall short of current mainstream expectations.
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