SMM12 29: 2018, lead prices run in 17280 20810 yuan / ton, the whole year trend is similar to last year, but this year's main wave market in April to June, lasted only 2 months, far less than 17 years as long as 5 months of "mad cow" market. It can be said that the lead price trend in 2018 is basically in line with the expectations of the industry.
1. The shortage of domestic lead concentrate supply has not changed, but the processing fee has been rising all the way.
In 2018, the supply of lead concentrate remained tight, but in the face of tight supply of domestic mines, processing fees have been rising. SMM believes that the main reasons for the increase in domestic lead concentrate processing fees are:
First, during the production season of lead concentrate, the primary lead refineries are centrally overhauled, coupled with the unabated efforts of the central and local governments in environmental protection inspection during the year, the production of refineries is limited in stages, and the demand for mines has been reduced. So that refineries have more say in the negotiation of processing fees; Second, the Shanghai-London ratio continued to improve during the year, the profit of imported lead concentrate was considerable, and the selection range of smelters was expanded, which led to the fact that domestic mining enterprises had to seize the market by raising processing fees. Third, with the increasingly tight supply of lead concentrate, the proportion of primary lead refineries using lead waste instead of lead concentrate has increased, which has reduced the dependence on lead concentrate to a certain extent.
2. Inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong has dropped sharply compared with the same period last year.
Social inventories were basically maintained at the benchmark level of 10, 000 to 20, 000 tons in 2018, down sharply from the same period last year. SMM believes that the main logic behind this is that the central environmental inspection efforts have been intensified. A large number of small recycled lead smelters and primary lead refineries have been shut down because of substandard environmental protection, resulting in a significant reduction in the supply side.
In 2018, after many rounds of environmental supervision and inspection, the survival of the fittest can stabilize the production of emission standard enterprises, renewable lead industry, environmental protection inspection to stop production and the release of new production capacity, the primary lead refinery after many rounds of environmental protection supervision and inspection, survival of the fittest, stable production is basically up to the standard enterprises. On the other hand, the consumer side of lead-acid battery shows the signs that the peak season is not prosperous and the off-season is not weak, and the annual consumption tends to stabilize and weaken. generally speaking, the social inventory maintained a low shock in 2018.
3. The process of replacing primary lead with recycled lead is continuously promoted.
The overall output of recycled lead is still increasing in 2018. This is mainly due to the continuous promotion of the process of industrial structure optimization of domestic recycled lead and the pressure of environmental protection supervision, which makes the domestic "three no" recycled lead refineries survive in the cracks. The continuous reduction of non-licensed enterprises has brought some gaps in the supply of recycled lead and more sources of raw materials to licensed enterprises, and the new expansion plan of recycled lead in licensed enterprises has increased, thus promoting the overall production of recycled lead. With the continuous promotion of the process of industrial structure optimization and the pressure of environmental protection supervision, it is a major trend for recycled lead to replace primary lead in the future.
4. The new national standard of electric bicycles has landed, which may further crack down on lead consumption in 2019.
In 2018, the traditional electric bicycle (lead-acid battery) industry, on the one hand, is facing the pressure of lithium electric bicycle replacement, on the other hand, the landing of the new national standard of electric bicycle brings the battery "lightweight" and the impact of accelerating the use of lithium electricity. At the same time, various localities issued regulations on the management of non-motor vehicles, such as the Beijing regulations on the Administration of non-Motor vehicles, to promote the replacement of over-standard electric bicycles in the market, which also stimulated the demand for replacement of electric bicycles to a certain extent. On April 15, 2019, the new national standard of electric bicycle will be implemented soon, which may exert great pressure on the traditional lead-acid battery.
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Contact: Wu Tingting