SMM December 29 news: 2018 copper price trend and the market at the beginning of the year generally bullish expectations interpretation of the ideal is very full, the reality is very bone. Copper prices as a whole showed a unilateral shock downward trend, the beginning of the year is the highest point of the year, it can be described as the peak. As of the last trading day of 2018, Shanghai Copper closed at 48340 yuan per ton, an annual decline of 12.85 per cent. Lun Copper fell 17.38 per cent year-on-year to $5991 a tonne as of press release.
Since 2018, the scrap copper policy has been tightened as scheduled, the pattern of supply and demand of scrap copper has become apparent, and the frequent shutdown and maintenance of overseas smelters have led to a sharp drop in inventories on the world's three major exchanges. However, against the backdrop of escalating global trade frictions and a sustained macroeconomic downturn, copper prices are weak and weak, and the trend of copper prices in 2018 can be divided into four stages:
The main trend of Shanghai Copper in 2018
Phase I (January-end of March): copper rose above $7200 per tonne in the context of the global economic recovery in the fourth quarter of 2017. However, due to the off-season of domestic Spring Festival consumption and the expected delay in the peak season after the festival, copper prices showed a wave of obvious correction and weakening trend, with Lun Copper falling below US $6600 per ton and Shanghai Copper falling to 48720 yuan per ton, down 9.54 per cent in the first quarter.
The second stage (from April to early June): starting in April, with the recovery of domestic downstream construction, copper prices began to fluctuate and stabilized, and the main force of Shanghai copper recovered to 52000 yuan per ton, but due to the obvious characteristics of the overall peak season, And the previous market concern about the mine strike did not occur, superimposed India Vedanta 400000 tons of smelter closure led to a sufficient global supply of copper concentrate, domestic processing fees continued to rebound, copper prices rebound lack of momentum. At the same time, the Sino-US trade war officially broke out in Ching Ming Festival, although the market expectations are not sufficient, but also become a major negative macro, until the beginning of June, copper prices have been horizontal collation. However, the strike speculation about Escondida, the world's largest mine, once pushed copper prices to a new high of US $7348 per ton, but then the mine labor contract was successfully reached, the mine strike was once again disappointed, and copper prices rose and fell back.
The third stage (from early June to early September): the Sino-US trade war continues to ferment, superimposing the relative weakness of the domestic economy, and macroeconomic expectations are bleak. Copper prices began to accelerate their decline, showing a unilateral decline throughout the third quarter, as low as US $5773 per ton, while the main force of Shanghai Copper also hit a new low of 47040 yuan per ton in the year.
The fourth stage (from mid-September to the end of December): with the landing of 10 per cent tariffs on US $2000 in imports, the trade war eased in stages, while the positions of the three major copper futures markets in SHFE, LME, and COMEX all declined. All of them are at a low level in recent years. Copper prices began to stabilize and fluctuate. Although copper prices have resisted falls since late October against a backdrop of sharp falls in other commodities. In early December, a consensus reached in a trade dispute between China and the United States pushed up copper prices to rebound strongly, but worried about the subsequent global economic slowdown and weak domestic consumption, copper prices still lack the momentum to rise, and remained low throughout the fourth phase of consolidation.
Looking ahead to 2019, SMM believes that the copper price range in 2019 is similar to this year, with a slight shift in the center of gravity by $100 to $150.
"[market voice] 2018 copper prices down more than 13% 2019 dare to gamble up? See what the agency says.
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