SMM, Dec. 27: Thursday, domestic goods opened high and low, with both ups and downs. The black system returns to the basic surface of double light supply and demand, the thread steel is weak and oscillated in the day, and the coke turns green in the afternoon. There are different ups and downs in color.
During the Christmas holiday, Trump called on investors to copy US stocks, and US holiday shopping season sales posted their strongest performance in six years, fears of a slowdown in the US economy eased, the three major US stock indexes rallied across the board, and the Dow rose more than 1000 points. In addition, White House economic advisers said Powell's position was not in danger, the panic rate index VIX fell back high, and market risk appetite began to pick up.
China's industrial profits fell in November for the first time in nearly three years from a year earlier, confirming the increasing pressure on Chinese industrial enterprises to make profits. Evening US weekly jobless claims, December Conference Board consumer confidence index and weekly API crude oil inventory changes and other data are about to be released, when the market may make a further judgment on the US economy and the balance between supply and demand of US oil.
In terms of capital flows today
The Wenhua Commodity Index accelerated in late trading, with capital flows shifting from inflow to outflow of $563 million. Despite the surge in SC crude oil and the shift in the center of gravity of copper in Shanghai, it was abandoned by 202 million and 298 million, respectively. Prior to the continuous loss of blood coke finally regained the favor of capital, nearly 400 million capital inflows blessing.
A brief comment by SMM analyst on December 27th
Copper: today, the main 1902 contract of Shanghai copper opened at an intraday high of 48620 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, under the drag of long positions, copper prices fluctuated slightly above the daily average to 48410 yuan / ton near the daily average, before noon in the Asian plate. The copper price is mostly supported by the narrow range of the daily moving average between 48410 and 48440, and the amplitude does not exceed 20 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, most of the copper prices fell from 48410 yuan / ton to below the daily average, and 48270 yuan / ton was supported by force. In late trading, the copper price was basically in a narrow range of 48280 to 48370 yuan / ton, and the amplitude did not exceed 50 yuan / ton. It closed at a low of 48280 yuan per ton, up 310 yuan per ton, or 0.65 per cent. The main 1902 contract position decreased by 13260 to 161000, and the transaction increased by 69972 to 189000. A total of 20632 positions were reduced in 1901 and 1902 contracts. Today, the total position of the Shanghai Copper Index returned to below 500000 hands, mainly short of risk aversion. Yesterday, US stocks and US crude oil soared, the main force of Shanghai copper jumped high overnight, the main center of gravity of Shanghai copper rose sharply within days, recovered the 5-day moving average and most of the upper shadow line pierced the 10-day average, and moved closer to Brin's middle track, and the MACD green energy column narrowed. The upward expansion of KDJ opening is an obvious signal for the low copper price to rise. In the evening, waiting for the guidance of the outside market, pay attention to the trend of long and empty, and test whether the main force of Shanghai copper can reach 48500 yuan / ton line at night.
Aluminum: the 1902 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company opened at 13780 yuan / ton in the morning. At the beginning of the day, some of the bulls increased their positions, and the aluminum price rose slightly by 13800 yuan / ton, the highest price in a day, but the pressure above is greater, so it is difficult for Shanghai Aluminum to continue to break through. Then it began to fall all the way downward. After entering the second stage of trading, Shanghai Aluminum stabilized in a narrow range of 13675 yuan / ton, but after all, it was difficult to beat the atmosphere of the air today. At two o'clock in the afternoon, the center of gravity sank again, and after all, it fell to about 13655 yuan per ton at the end of the first trading stage. after entering the second stage of the transaction, Shanghai Aluminum stabilized in a narrow range at the end of the first trading stage. The lowest price in the day was 13645 yuan / ton. Today, it closed at 13650 yuan / ton, down 180%, down 1.3%. Trading volume increased by 53282 hands to 220000 hands, and position volume decreased by 14456 hands to 208000 hands, mainly long positions. Today, the K line recorded a long negative line, giving back all the gains this week, piercing all averages downward, the daily KDJ line three lines converged downward, the MACD red line was significantly shortened. Today, due to the obvious decline in alumina prices at the cost end, the lower cost of aluminum prices is relatively large, market traders lack confidence, and long positions are significantly reduced. It is expected to maintain a weak shock at night and seek support below. In the evening, we continued to pay attention to the release of news of the dollar index and fundamental supply and demand.
Zinc: the main 1902 contract of Shanghai zinc was opened at 21110 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc failed to maintain an overnight rise, and under the long position reduction, Shanghai zinc quickly went down, jumped off the daily average, and arranged around a narrow range of 20830 yuan / ton, but failed to stand firm. After the center of gravity gradually moved down, it was found to be about 20730 yuan / ton, and then the attempt to repair it failed and returned to the former low area. It closed up 20735 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton, or 0.1 percent, from the previous trade, with trading volume up 201000 hands to 636000 hands and positions down 17162 hands to 181000 hands. Within a day, the Shanghai Zinc solid column Station was on the middle track of Bolin Road, with a long film line measuring all the averages above. Near the holiday, the Shanghai Zinc monthly contract reduced its position by more than 25000 hands, and the capital was withdrawn or distributed for a long month, or accelerated the speed of the main force to change the month. Although the current spot price performance is strong, but the overall consumption performance is still not good, Shanghai zinc upward space is still to be considered, at night to observe whether Shanghai zinc can stand on the middle track.
Lead: within a day, the Shanghai lead 1902 contract was opened at 17905 yuan / ton, and some of the short positions left the market at the beginning of the day. The Shanghai lead straight line rose to 17995 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity moved up during the day. Later, the bulls left the market one after another. Shanghai lead opened the mode of intraday concussion. Basically give up the early gains, near the close, Shanghai lead along the 17935 yuan / ton line consolidation, finally closed at 17930 yuan / ton, up 175yuan / ton, up 0. 99%, the position was reduced by 3942 hands to 56344 hands. Shanghai lead closed Xiaoyang line, temporarily fell steady, but the upper Wanba gate pressure is stronger, coupled with today's rise is mainly caused by short positions to leave the market, so Shanghai lead can continue to rise still need to see the aftereffect, it is expected that Shanghai lead at night or near Wanba shock.
Nickel: Shanghai Ni 1905 opened at 88880 yuan / ton today, the overnight U. S. stock market bottomed out. At the beginning of the day, the bulls reduced their positions and reached 89100 yuan / ton, bearing pressure on the 5-day line above, and then the Shanghai nickel shock went down to below the 5-day moving average, with the center of gravity fluctuating around a narrow range of 88250 yuan / ton, and the upper pressure-bearing 5-day moving average. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel continued to bear pressure daily average weak operation, near the close, short position increased, Shanghai nickel closed at 87960 yuan / ton. Throughout the day, Shanghai nickel main contract 1905 closed at the Xiaoyin line, compared with the previous day's settlement price fell 380 yuan / ton, down 0.43%. Trading volume decreased by 25000 hands to 478000 hands, while position volume increased by 6100 hands to 34.1 million hands. The daily line technology KDJ opening down, MACD red column becomes shorter. Night observation, Shanghai nickel can hold the 87400 yuan / ton gate. In the evening, attention should be paid to the number of first-time jobless claims (10,000) in the week of December 22 in the United States, and the Consumer confidence Index of the Conference Board in December.
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