[SMM Analysis] the recovery of Iron Ore Port and the re-upgrading of production restriction in Tangshan-Shanghai Metals Market

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[SMM Analysis] the recovery of Iron Ore Port and the re-upgrading of production restriction in Tangshan

Translation 05:35:30PM Dec 21, 2018 Source:Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network

According to SMM steel statistics, as of December 21, iron ore stocks in 35 ports were 128.38 million tons, up 160000 tons from 128.22 million tons last week, and the daily average port volume increased by 67000 tons to 2.512 million tons compared with the previous week.

This week, the sparse port in Tangshan area has picked up. Caofeidian Port has intermittent restrictions on the collection of sparse ports, with an increase of 50, 000 tons per day compared with last week. Due to the transfer of demand from some steel mills to Jingtang Port, Jingtang Port returned to about 300000 tons per day this week.

In addition, due to the strict production restrictions in Tangshan this week, sinter from the surrounding Qinhuangdao area began to be exported, which has also led to an increase in the demand for imported ore, which has also led to an increase in the number of ports in Jingtang Port. According to SMM, 20-26 Tangshan port is still concentrated in a wave of ships, when the port inventory may have a small increase.

[weekly Price Review]

This week, Liantie continued its upward trend of concussion; spot market prices rose steadily. Shandong PB powder Friday quoted 560yuan / ton, up 25% from the previous month; Tangshan PB powder Friday quoted 570RMB / ton, up 30% from the previous month. In terms of varieties, due to the frequent news of strict production restrictions in Tangshan, the demand for port blocks and pellets has increased. In addition, according to the SMM data model, calculated by 73 American gold mine, the current steel mill thread and hot coil profits are more than 500 yuan / ton, steel mills began to increase the acceptance of medium and high taste ore, port spot medium and high taste ore price increase is higher.

The MMi 62 per cent iron ore port spot price index closed Friday at 571yuan / tonne, up 17 yuan / tonne from Friday's 554yuan / tonne. The MMi 62%CFR price was $73.93, up 2.24 yuan / tonne from Friday's 71.69 yuan / ton.

[summary of weekly supply]

According to the iron ore arrival data followed by SMM this week, a total of 70 ships arrived at China's ports from 12.14 to 12.20, with an estimated arrival volume of 10.04 million tons, 440000 tons lower than the previous forecast of 10.48 million tons. With the exception of a small increase in the number of ships to the ports in the river, the number of ships to the other main ports decreased slightly. During the period, exports from Australia are expected to decrease by 170000 tons to 15.91 million tons, while those from Brazil are expected to increase by 430000 tons to 7.82 million tons.

Judging from the current port inventory, the total inventory in Qingdao, Rizhao, Jingtang, Caofeidian, Tianjin and Lianyungang increased by 27000 this week compared with last week. However, by variety, the current six ports PB powder, Newman powder, Mike flour stocks are all slightly higher than last week, while Jinbuba and super demand inventory is still in decline.

[summary of requirements for one week]

This Sunday, the average port volume rose compared with the previous month, although the Tangshan production restrictions continue to strengthen this week, but the implementation will still have a buffer period of 1 to 3 days, although this week Tangshan production restrictions continue to strengthen, but the implementation will still have a buffer period of 1 to 3 days. In addition, the sinter of the steel mills around Tangshan is full of sinter in order to sell sinter to Tangshan area, and the total monthly ratio of the two ports in Tangshan area does not change much.

However, the Tangshan municipal government explicitly requested that between December 20 and 31, further enhanced control measures should be taken to pledge to meet the annual air quality targets. All sintering machines in iron and steel enterprises are shut down; unless the sintering machine cannot be completely stopped due to heating and technical problems, the minimum production load shall be maintained after being determined by the environmental protection department.

According to the latest news, Ruifeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has stopped production of all sintering machines on the 20th, and stopped production of two blast furnaces again on the same day. At the same time, it is uncertain that the depth of the subsequent blast furnace production may be reduced.

Thus it can be seen that before the end of the month, the environmental protection and production restrictions in Tangshan area may not be relaxed, and the demand side is still expected to be weak, but because of the production restrictions, the steel prices will continue to be good, and some steel mills will make up for the storage before the festival or form a certain support to the mining prices. It is expected that the import mining market may continue to fluctuate with the timber next week.

[SMM Analysis] the recovery of Iron Ore Port and the re-upgrading of production restriction in Tangshan

Translation 05:35:30PM Dec 21, 2018 Source:Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network

According to SMM steel statistics, as of December 21, iron ore stocks in 35 ports were 128.38 million tons, up 160000 tons from 128.22 million tons last week, and the daily average port volume increased by 67000 tons to 2.512 million tons compared with the previous week.

This week, the sparse port in Tangshan area has picked up. Caofeidian Port has intermittent restrictions on the collection of sparse ports, with an increase of 50, 000 tons per day compared with last week. Due to the transfer of demand from some steel mills to Jingtang Port, Jingtang Port returned to about 300000 tons per day this week.

In addition, due to the strict production restrictions in Tangshan this week, sinter from the surrounding Qinhuangdao area began to be exported, which has also led to an increase in the demand for imported ore, which has also led to an increase in the number of ports in Jingtang Port. According to SMM, 20-26 Tangshan port is still concentrated in a wave of ships, when the port inventory may have a small increase.

[weekly Price Review]

This week, Liantie continued its upward trend of concussion; spot market prices rose steadily. Shandong PB powder Friday quoted 560yuan / ton, up 25% from the previous month; Tangshan PB powder Friday quoted 570RMB / ton, up 30% from the previous month. In terms of varieties, due to the frequent news of strict production restrictions in Tangshan, the demand for port blocks and pellets has increased. In addition, according to the SMM data model, calculated by 73 American gold mine, the current steel mill thread and hot coil profits are more than 500 yuan / ton, steel mills began to increase the acceptance of medium and high taste ore, port spot medium and high taste ore price increase is higher.

The MMi 62 per cent iron ore port spot price index closed Friday at 571yuan / tonne, up 17 yuan / tonne from Friday's 554yuan / tonne. The MMi 62%CFR price was $73.93, up 2.24 yuan / tonne from Friday's 71.69 yuan / ton.

[summary of weekly supply]

According to the iron ore arrival data followed by SMM this week, a total of 70 ships arrived at China's ports from 12.14 to 12.20, with an estimated arrival volume of 10.04 million tons, 440000 tons lower than the previous forecast of 10.48 million tons. With the exception of a small increase in the number of ships to the ports in the river, the number of ships to the other main ports decreased slightly. During the period, exports from Australia are expected to decrease by 170000 tons to 15.91 million tons, while those from Brazil are expected to increase by 430000 tons to 7.82 million tons.

Judging from the current port inventory, the total inventory in Qingdao, Rizhao, Jingtang, Caofeidian, Tianjin and Lianyungang increased by 27000 this week compared with last week. However, by variety, the current six ports PB powder, Newman powder, Mike flour stocks are all slightly higher than last week, while Jinbuba and super demand inventory is still in decline.

[summary of requirements for one week]

This Sunday, the average port volume rose compared with the previous month, although the Tangshan production restrictions continue to strengthen this week, but the implementation will still have a buffer period of 1 to 3 days, although this week Tangshan production restrictions continue to strengthen, but the implementation will still have a buffer period of 1 to 3 days. In addition, the sinter of the steel mills around Tangshan is full of sinter in order to sell sinter to Tangshan area, and the total monthly ratio of the two ports in Tangshan area does not change much.

However, the Tangshan municipal government explicitly requested that between December 20 and 31, further enhanced control measures should be taken to pledge to meet the annual air quality targets. All sintering machines in iron and steel enterprises are shut down; unless the sintering machine cannot be completely stopped due to heating and technical problems, the minimum production load shall be maintained after being determined by the environmental protection department.

According to the latest news, Ruifeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has stopped production of all sintering machines on the 20th, and stopped production of two blast furnaces again on the same day. At the same time, it is uncertain that the depth of the subsequent blast furnace production may be reduced.

Thus it can be seen that before the end of the month, the environmental protection and production restrictions in Tangshan area may not be relaxed, and the demand side is still expected to be weak, but because of the production restrictions, the steel prices will continue to be good, and some steel mills will make up for the storage before the festival or form a certain support to the mining prices. It is expected that the import mining market may continue to fluctuate with the timber next week.